Automated market-making in the large: The Gates Hillman prediction market

Proceedings of the ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce

Volumn , Issue , 2010, Pages 367-376

  Othman, Abraham ^a   Sandholm, Tuomas ^a  

^a Carnegie Mellon University ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

automated market making; data analysis; elicitation; experimental studies; prediction markets

Indexed keywords

CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY; DATA ANALYSIS; DATA SETS; EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES; MARKET-MAKER; ORDER OF MAGNITUDE; POWER LAW DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTION MARKETS;

AUTOMATION; DATA REDUCTION; ELECTRONIC COMMERCE;

FORECASTING;

EID: 77954741247     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1145/1807342.1807401     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (24)

1. S. Agrawal, E. Delage, M. Peters, Z. Wang, and Y. Ye. A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design. In Proceedings of the tenth ACM conference on Electronic Commerce (EC), pages 255-264, 2009.
2. M. Ali. Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors. The Journal of Political Economy, 85(4):803, 1977.
3. J. Berg, R. Forsythe, F. Nelson, and T. Rietz. Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research. Handbook of Experimental Economics Results, 2001.
4. Y. Chen and D. Pennock. A utility framework for bounded-loss market makers. In Proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI), pages 49-56, 2007.
5. Y. Chen, L. Fortnow, N. Lambert, D. M. Pennock, and J. Wortman. Complexity of combinatorial market makers. In Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic Commerce (EC), 2008.
6. R. Forsythe, T. Rietz, and T. Ross. Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets. J. of Econ. Behavior and Organization, 39(1):83-110, 1999.
7. L. Fortnow, J. Kilian, D. M. Pennock, and M. P. Wellman. Betting boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas. In Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce (EC), pages 144-155, 2003.
8. D. Gode and S. Sunder. Allocative efficiency of markets with zero-intelligence traders: Market as a partial substitute for individual rationality. J. Pol. Econ., pages 119-137, 1993.
9. A. Graefe and J. S. Armstrong. Can you beat the market? Accuracy of Individual and Group Post-Prediction Market Judgments. In Third workshop on prediction markets, part of the ACM conference on Electronic Commerce (EC), 2008.
10. R. Hanson. Combinatorial information market design. Information Systems Frontiers, 5(1):107-119, 2003.
11. F. Hayek. The use of knowledge in society. American Economic Review, 35:519-530, 1945.
12. P. Healy, J. Ledyard, S. Linardi, and J. Lowery. Prediction Market Alternatives for Complex Environments. In AMMA, 2008.
13. N. S. Lambert, D. M. Pennock, and Y. Shoham. Eliciting properties of probability distributions. In Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic Commerce (EC), 2008.
14. S. Levitt and J. List. Homo economicus evolves. Science, 319 (5865):909-910, 2008.
15. P. Milgrom and N. Stokey. Information, Trade and Common Knowledge. Journal of Economic Theory, 26(1):17-27, 1982.
16. M. Mitzenmacher. A brief history of generative models for power law and lognormal distributions. Internet Mathematics, 1(2): 226-251, 2004.
17. D. Moore and P. Healy. The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological review, 115(2):502-517, 2008.
18. K. Oliven and T. Rietz. Suckers are born but markets are made: Individual rationality, arbitrage, and market efficiency on an electronic futures market. Man. Sci., 50(3):336-351, 2004.
19. A. Othman. Zero-intelligence agents in prediction markets. In Proc. of the 7th Int'l joint conf. on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems (AAMAS), pages 879-886, 2008.
20. A. Othman, D.M. Pennock, D.M. Reeves, T. Sandholm. A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker. In Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic Commerce (EC), 2010.
21. D. Pennock and R. Sami. Computational Aspects of Prediction Markets. In Algorithmic Game Theory, chapter 26, pages 651-674. Cambridge University Press, 2007.
22. V. Smith. Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the "Hayek Hypothesis". Economic Inquiry, 20 (2):165-79, 1982.
23. United Nations. Human Development Report 2007/08, 2008.
24. J. Wolfers and E. Zitzewitz. Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets. Technical Report 1975, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Feb. 2006.