메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 167, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 751-761

PI forecast for the Sichuan-Yunnan region: Retrospective test after the may 12, 2008, Wenchuan earthquake

Author keywords

Intermediate term earthquake forecast; Pattern informatics; ROC test; Statistical physics; Wenchuan earthquake

Indexed keywords

ALGORITHM; CLUSTER ANALYSIS; EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE; EARTHQUAKE EVENT; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; SEISMIC ZONE; SICHUAN EARTHQUAKE 2008;

EID: 77954310409     PISSN: 00334553     EISSN: 14209136     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00024-010-0070-8     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (25)

References (25)
  • 1
    • 30744467142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chen, C. C., Rundle, J. B., Holliday, J. R., Nanjo, K. Z., Turcotte, D. L., Li, S. C., and Tiampo, K. F. (2005), The 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake as a typical example of seismic activation and quiescence, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L22315, doi: 10. 1029/2005GL023991.
  • 2
    • 77954313882 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Field, E. D. ed. (2007), Special Issue-Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, Seism. Res. Lett. 78, 1-140.
  • 3
    • 34248676564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Holliday, J. R., Chen, C. C., Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B., and Turcotte, D. L. (2007), A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics, Seism. Res. Lett. 78, 87-93.
  • 4
    • 30744470111 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Holliday, J. R., Nanjo, K. Z., Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B., and Turcotte, D. L. (2005). Earthquake forecasting and its verification, Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 12, 965-977.
  • 5
    • 30944453549 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Holliday, J. R., Rundle, J. B., Tiampo, K. F., Klein, W., and Donnellan, A. (2006), Modification of the pattern informatics method for forecasting large earthquake events using complex eigenfactors, Tectonophysics 413, 87-91.
  • 6
    • 52249088224 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Jiang, C. S. and Wu, Z. L. (2008), Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region, Sci. China Ser. D Earth Sci. 51, 1401-1410.
  • 7
    • 0033732689 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Kagan, Y. Y. and Jackson, D. D. (2000), Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int. 143, 438-453.
  • 8
    • 0025206066 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Keilis-Borok, V. I. and Rotwain, I. M. (1990), Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in diferent regions of the world, Phys. Earth Planet Inter. 61, 57-72.
  • 9
    • 80053000897 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Kossobokov V. G. and Soloviev, A. A. (2008), Prediction of extreme events: Fundamentals and prerequisites of verification, Russ. J. Earth Sci. 10, ES2005, doi: 10. 2205/2007ES000251.
  • 10
    • 0030920023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Molchan, G. M. (1997), Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem, Pure Appl. Geophys. 149, 233-247.
  • 11
    • 33846500780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nanjo, K. Z., Rundle, J. B., Holliday, J. R., and Turcotte, D. L. (2006), Pattern informatics and its application for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, Pure Appl. Geophys. 163, 2417-2432.
  • 12
    • 0034473814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rundle, J. B., Klein, W., Turcotte, D. L., and Malamud, B. D. (2000). Precursory seismic activation and critical-point phenomena, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157, 2165-2182.
  • 13
    • 0037133193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rundle, J. B., Tiampo, K. F., Klein, W., and Martins, J. S. A. (2002), Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecasting, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 99(Suppl. 1), 2514-2521.
  • 14
    • 1842783415 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rundle, J. B., Turcotte, D. L., Shcherbakov, R., Klein, W., and Sammis, C. (2003), Statistical physics approach to understanding the multiscale dynamics of earthquake fault systems, Rev. Geophys. 41(4), 1019, doi: 10. 1029/2003RG000135.
  • 15
    • 77954310088 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Su, Y. J., Li, Y. L., and Li, Z. H. (2003). Analysis of minimum complete magnitude of earthquake catalogue in Sichuan-Yunnan region, J. Seismol. Res. (in Chinese with English Abstract) 26(Suppl), 10-16.
  • 16
    • 0015731803 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Swets, J. A. (1973), The relative operating characteristic in psychology, Science 182, 990-1000.
  • 17
    • 0000421976 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thirumalai, D., Mountain, R. D. and Kirkpatrick, T. R. (1989). Ergodic behavior in supercooled liquids and in glasses, Phys. Rev. A. 39, 3563-3574.
  • 18
    • 4444324211 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B., Klein, W. and Martins, J. S. Sá. (2004). Ergodicity in natural fault systems, Pure Appl. Geophys. 161, 1957-1968, doi: 10. 1007/s00024-004-2542-1.
  • 19
    • 34547357392 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B., Klein, W., Holliday, J., Martins, J. S. Sá, and Ferguson, C. D. (2007), Ergodicity in natural earthquake fault networks, Phys. Rev. E. 75, 066107, doi: 10. 1103/PhysRevE. 75. 066107.
  • 20
    • 0036849887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tiampo, K. F., Rundle, J. B., McGinnis, S., Gross, S. J., and Klein, W. (2002), Mean-field threshold systems and phase dynamics: An application to earthquake fault systems, Europhys. Lett. 60, 481-487.
  • 21
    • 0029753266 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Xu, X. W. and Deng, Q. D. (1996), Nonlinear characteristics of paleoseismicity in China, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 6209-6231.
  • 22
    • 33645793748 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Xu, X. W., Zhang, P. Z., Wen, X. Z. (2005), Features of active tectonics and recurrence behaviors of strong earthquake in the western Sichuan Province and its adjacent regions, Seismol. Geol. (in Chinese with English abstract) 27, 446-461.
  • 23
    • 77954312293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Yi, G. X., Wen, X. Z., and Xu, X. W. (2002), Study on recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes for several entireties of active fault zones in Sichuan-Yunnan region, Earthq. Res. China (in Chinese with English abstract) 18, 267-276.
  • 24
    • 53949115244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Zhang, P. Z., Xu, X, W., Wen, X. Z., and Ran, Y. K. (2008), Slip rate and recurrence intervals of the Longmen Shan active fault zone, and tectonic implications for the mechanism of the May 12 Wenchuan earthquake, 2008, Sichuan, China, Chin. J. Geophys. (in Chinese with English abstract) 51, 1066-1073.
  • 25
    • 57749207686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wu, Y.-H., Chen, C., and Rundle, J. B. (2008), Detecting precursory earthquake migration patterns using the pattern informatics method, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L19304, doi: 10. 1029/2008GL035215.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.