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For the calculation of Θ and Δ, we choose values of L and λ to be on the order of a couple of trading weeks prior to the announcement, so that we isolate fresh speculation leading into the meeting. The parameter λ provides an effective cutoff period, after which the weights begin to decrease quickly. Conversely, the weights corresponding to days close to the meeting, Δt=0, are effectively constant. The values of Θ and Δ do not change much with varying choice of L [5,15 ] or λ [5,15 ]. Without loss of generality, we choose L=15 days and λ=10 days.
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For the calculation of Θ and Δ, we choose values of L and λ to be on the order of a couple of trading weeks prior to the announcement, so that we isolate fresh speculation leading into the meeting. The parameter λ provides an effective cutoff period, after which the weights begin to decrease quickly. Conversely, the weights corresponding to days close to the meeting, Δ t = 0, are effectively constant. The values of Θ and Δ do not change much with varying choice of L [5, 15] or λ [5, 15]. Without loss of generality, we choose L = 15 days and λ = 10 days.
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We find historical information about FOMC meetings using resources at the Federal Reserve website and using newspaper archives. Intraday time of announcement, T, is often quoted in New York Times finance articles by Richard W. Stevenson the day after FOMC announcements. They are also evident in the intraday Omori plots of N (t) in Fig. .
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We find historical information about FOMC meetings using resources at the Federal Reserve website and using newspaper archives. Intraday time of announcement, T, is often quoted in New York Times finance articles by Richard W. Stevenson the day after FOMC announcements. They are also evident in the intraday Omori plots of N (t) in Fig..
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In Fig. we plot N (t), where t=0 corresponds to the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. Quantitatively, we calculate the Omori exponents using the displaced time τ from the announcement time T. In terms of the displaced time τ | t- Ti |, we separate Ni (t) into two separate time series Nb,i (τ) = Ni ( Ti ) - Ni ( | t- Ti | ), where p Ti. The parameter p is a "padding" that eliminates the last 60 min of Nb,i (τ) [the first 60 min of Ni (t)], which eliminates opening effects and improves the regression analysis around Ti.
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In Fig. we plot N (t), where t = 0 corresponds to the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. Quantitatively, we calculate the Omori exponents using the displaced time τ from the announcement time T. In terms of the displaced time τ | t - T i |, we separate N i (t) into two separate time series N b, i (τ) = N i (T i) - N i (| t - T i |), where p < t < T i and N a, i (τ) = N i (t - T i) - N i (T i) with t > T i. The parameter p is a "padding" that eliminates the last 60 min of N b, i (τ) [the first 60 min of N i (t)], which eliminates opening effects and improves the regression analysis around T i.
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