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Volumn 81, Issue 6, 2010, Pages

Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BEFORE AND AFTER; FEDERAL FUNDS; FEDERAL RESERVE; FINANCIAL NEWS; MARKET DYNAMICS; MARKET RESPONSE; OPEN MARKET; POWER LAW DECAY; PRESHOCKS;

EID: 77954222932     PISSN: 15393755     EISSN: 15502376     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.81.066121     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (42)

References (53)
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    • For the calculation of Θ and Δ, we choose values of L and λ to be on the order of a couple of trading weeks prior to the announcement, so that we isolate fresh speculation leading into the meeting. The parameter λ provides an effective cutoff period, after which the weights begin to decrease quickly. Conversely, the weights corresponding to days close to the meeting, Δt=0, are effectively constant. The values of Θ and Δ do not change much with varying choice of L [5,15 ] or λ [5,15 ]. Without loss of generality, we choose L=15 days and λ=10 days.
    • For the calculation of Θ and Δ, we choose values of L and λ to be on the order of a couple of trading weeks prior to the announcement, so that we isolate fresh speculation leading into the meeting. The parameter λ provides an effective cutoff period, after which the weights begin to decrease quickly. Conversely, the weights corresponding to days close to the meeting, Δ t = 0, are effectively constant. The values of Θ and Δ do not change much with varying choice of L [5, 15] or λ [5, 15]. Without loss of generality, we choose L = 15 days and λ = 10 days.
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    • We find historical information about FOMC meetings using resources at the Federal Reserve website and using newspaper archives. Intraday time of announcement, T, is often quoted in New York Times finance articles by Richard W. Stevenson the day after FOMC announcements. They are also evident in the intraday Omori plots of N (t) in Fig. .
    • We find historical information about FOMC meetings using resources at the Federal Reserve website and using newspaper archives. Intraday time of announcement, T, is often quoted in New York Times finance articles by Richard W. Stevenson the day after FOMC announcements. They are also evident in the intraday Omori plots of N (t) in Fig..
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    • In Fig. we plot N (t), where t=0 corresponds to the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. Quantitatively, we calculate the Omori exponents using the displaced time τ from the announcement time T. In terms of the displaced time τ | t- Ti |, we separate Ni (t) into two separate time series Nb,i (τ) = Ni ( Ti ) - Ni ( | t- Ti | ), where p Ti. The parameter p is a "padding" that eliminates the last 60 min of Nb,i (τ) [the first 60 min of Ni (t)], which eliminates opening effects and improves the regression analysis around Ti.
    • In Fig. we plot N (t), where t = 0 corresponds to the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. Quantitatively, we calculate the Omori exponents using the displaced time τ from the announcement time T. In terms of the displaced time τ | t - T i |, we separate N i (t) into two separate time series N b, i (τ) = N i (T i) - N i (| t - T i |), where p < t < T i and N a, i (τ) = N i (t - T i) - N i (T i) with t > T i. The parameter p is a "padding" that eliminates the last 60 min of N b, i (τ) [the first 60 min of N i (t)], which eliminates opening effects and improves the regression analysis around T i.
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* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.