Climate-driven changes in coastal marine systems of western Europe

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Volumn 408, Issue , 2010, Pages 129-147

  Goberville, Eric ^a,b   Beaugrand, Grégory ^a,c   Sautour, Benoit ^b   Tréguer, Paul ^d  

^a Laboratoire d Océanologie et de Géosciences   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ DE BORDEAUX   (France)

^c CNRS   (France)

^d INSTITUT UNIVERSITAIRE EUROPÉEN DE LA MER   (France)

Author keywords

Anthropogenic impact; Climate change; Coastal systems; Multivariate analyses; SOMLIT

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; COASTAL ZONE; ECOSYSTEM SERVICE; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS;

WESTERN EUROPE;

EID: 77954096879     PISSN: 01718630     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/meps08564     Document Type: Article

References (106)

1. Aebischer NJ, Coulson JC, Colebrook JM (1990) Parallel long-term trends across four marine trophic levels and weather. Nature 347:753-755
2. Alheit J, Hagen E (1997) Long-term forcing of European herring and sardine populations. Fish Oceanogr 6:130-139
3. Anderson NJ (2000) Miniview: diatoms, temperature and climatic change. Eur J Phycol 35:307-314
4. Attrill MJ, Power M (2002) Climatic influence on a marine fish assemblage. Nature 417:275-278
5. Beaugrand G (2004) Monitoring marine plankton ecosystems. I: Description of an ecosystem approach based on plankton indicators. Mar. Ecol Prog Ser 269:69-81
6. Beaugrand G (2009) Decadal changes in climate and ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent seas. Deep-Sea Res II 56:656-673
7. Beaugrand G, Ibañez F (2004) Monitoring marine plankton ecosystems. II: Long-term changes in North Sea calanoid copepods in relation to hydro-climatic variability. Mar. Ecol Prog Ser 284:35-47
8. Beaugrand G, Reid PC (2003) Long-term changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and salmon related to climate. Glob Change Biol 9:801-817
9. Beaugrand G, Ibañez F, Reid PC (2000) Spatial, seasonal and long-term fluctuations of plankton in relation to hydroclimatic features in the English Channel, Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay. Mar. Ecol Prog Ser 200:93-102
10. Beaugrand G, Edwards M, Brander K, Luczak C, Ibanez F (2008) Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic. Ecol Lett 11:1157-1168
11. Behrenfeld MJ, O'Malley RT, Siegel DA, McClain CR and others (2006) Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity. Nature 444:752-755
12. Betts AK, Hong SY, Pan HL (1996) Comparison of NCEPNCAR reanalysis with 1987 FIFE data. Mon Weather Rev 124:1480-1498
13. Bopp L, Le Quéré C, Heimann M, Manning AC, Monfray P (2002) Climate-induced oceanic oxygen fluxes: implications for the contemporary carbon budget. Global Biogeochem Cycles 16:1022, doi:10.1029/2001GB001445
14. Box GEP, Jenkins GW (1976) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Francisco, CA
15. Cabeçadas G, Nogueira M, Brogueira MJ (1999) Nutrient dynamics and productivity in three European estuaries. Mar. Pollut Bull 38:1092-1096
16. Cariton JT, Geller JB (1993) Ecological roulette: the global transport of nonindigenous marine organisms. Science 261:78-82
17. Carpenter SR, Brock WA (2006) Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition. Ecol Lett 9:311-318
18. Chan F, Barth JA, Lubchenco J, Kirincich A, Weeks H, Peterson WT, Menge BA (2008) Emergence of anoxia in the California Current large marine ecosystem. Science 319:920
19. Chatfield C (1996) The analysis of time series: an introduction. Chapman & Hall, London
20. Chelton DB (1984) Commentary: short-term climatic variability in the northeast Pacific Ocean. In: Pearcy W (ed) The influence of ocean conditions on the production of salmonids in the North Pacific. Oregon State University Press, Corvallis, OR, p 87-99
21. Cloern JE (1996) Phytoplankton bloom dynamics in coastal ecosystems: a review with some general lessons from sustained investigation of San Francisco Bay, California. Rev Geophys 34:127-168
22. Cloern JE (2001) Our evolving conceptual model of the coastal eutrophication problem. Mar. Ecol Prog Ser 210:223-253
23. Cury PM, Shannon L, Shin YJ (2002) The functioning of marine ecosystems: a fisheries perspective. In: Sinclair M, Valdimarsson G (eds) Responsible fisheries in the marine ecosystem. FAO and CAB International, Rome, p 103-123
24. Diaz RJ (2001) Overview of hypoxia around the world. J Environ Qual 30:275-281
25. Diaz R, Rosenberg R (1995) Marine benthic hypoxia: a review of its ecological effects and the behavioural responses of benthic macrofauna. Oceanogr Mar. Biol Annu Rev 33:245-303
26. Dickson RR, Turrell WR (2000) The NAO: the dominant atmospheric process affecting oceanic variability in home, middle and distant waters of European Atlantic salmon. In: Mills D (ed) The ocean life of Atlantic salmon: environmental and biological factors influencing survival. Fishing News Books, Bodmin, p 92-115
27. Dobson AP, Bradshaw AD, Baker AJM (1997) Hopes for the future: restoration ecology and conservation biology. Science 277:515-522
28. Dolédec S, Chessel D (1994) Co-inertia analysis: an alternative method for studying species-environment relationships. Freshw Biol 31:277-294
29. Drinkwater KF, Belgrano A, Borja A, Conversi A and others (2003) The response of marine ecosystems to climatic variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Monogr 134:211-234
30. Edwards M, Richardson AJ (2004) Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch. Nature 430:881-884
31. Edwards M, John AWG, Johns DG, Reid PC (2001) Case history and persistence of the non-indigenous diatom Coscinodiscus wailesii in the north-east Atlantic. J Mar. Biol Assoc UK 81:207-211
32. Elmore KL, Richman MB (2001) Euclidean distance as a similarity metric for principal component analysis. Mon Weather Rev 129:540-549
33. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ (2001) The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U. S. Geophys Res Lett 28:2077-2080
34. Fernandez de Puelles ML, Valencia J, Vicente L (2004) Zooplankton variability and climatic anomalies from 1994 to 2001 in the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean). ICES J Mar. Sci 61:492-500
35. Font J, Salat J, Tintoré J (1988) Permanent features of the circulation in the Catalan Sea. Oceanol Acta 9:51-57
36. Frank KT, Petrie B, Choi JS, Leggett WC (2005) Trophic cascades in a formerly cod-dominated ecosystem. Science 308:1621-1623
37. Fromentin JM, Planque B (1996) Calanus and environment in the eastern North Atlantic. II. Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on C. finmarchicus and C. helgolandicus. Mar. Ecol Prog Ser 134:111-118
38. Gaedke U, Ollinger D, Bauerle E, Straile D (1998) The impact of the interannual variability in hydrodynamic conditions on the plankton development in Lake Constance in spring and summer. Adv Limnol 53:565-585
39. Hare SR, Mantua NJ (2000) Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989. Prog Oceanogr 47:103-145
40. Harley CDG, Hughes AR, Hultgren KM, Miner BG and others (2006) The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems. Ecol Lett 9:228-241
41. Hawkins SJ, Southward AJ, Genner MJ (2003) Detection of environmental change in a marine ecosystem-evidence from the western English Channel. Sci Total Environ 310:245-256
42. Henderson-Sellers A, Robinson PJ (1986) Contemporary climatology. John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY
43. Hochberg Y (1988) A sharper Bonferroni procedure for multiple tests of significance. Biometrika 75:800-802
44. Hohn ME (1993) Principal component analysis of three-way data. In: Davis JC, Hertzfeld UC (eds) Computers in geology:25 years of progress. Oxford University Press, New York, NY, p 181-194
45. Hopkins TS (1985) Physics of the sea. In: Margalef R (ed) Key environments: western Mediterranean. Pergamon Press, New York, NY, p 100-125
46. Howarth RW (1988) Nutrient limitation of net primary production in marine ecosystems. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 19:89-110
47. Hurrell JW (1995a) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitations. Science 269:676-679
48. Hurrell JW (1995b) Transient eddy forcing of the rotational flow during Northern winter. J Atmos Sci 52:2286-2301
49. Ibàñez C, Prat N, Canicio A (1996) Changes in the hydrology and sediment transport produced by large dams on the lower Ebro River and its estuary. Regul Rivers Res Manag 12:51-62
50. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
51. Irigoien X, Castel J (1997) Light limitation and distribution of chlorophyll pigments in a highly turbid estuary: the Gironde (SW France). Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 44:507-517
52. Jennings S, Kaiser MJ (1998) The effects of fishing on marine ecosystems. Adv Mar. Biol 34:201-352
53. Jennings S, Kaiser MJ, Reynolds JD (2001) Marine fisheries ecology. Blackwell Scientific Publishers, Oxford
54. Jickells TD (1998) Nutrient biogeochemistry of the coastal zone. Science 281:217-222
55. Joliffe I (1986) Principal component analysis. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY
56. Justic D, Rabalais N, Turner RE (1997) Impacts of climate change on net productivity of coastal waters: implications for carbon budgets and hypoxia. Clim Res 8:225-237
57. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W and others (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437-471
58. Keenlyside NS, Latif M, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453:84-88
59. Kirby R, Beaugrand G, Lindley JA (2009) Synergistic effects of climate and fishing in a marine ecosystem. Ecosystems 12:548-561
60. Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S and others (2000) The NCEP-NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CDROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:247-267
61. Kremer HH, Le Tissier MDA, Burbridge PR, Talaue-McManus L and others (2004) Land-ocean interactions in the coastal zone: science plan and implementation strategy. International Geosphere-Bioshpere Programme Report 51/International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change Report 18. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm
62. Kroncke I, Dippner JW, Heyen H, Zeiss B (1998) Long-term changes in macrofaunal communities off Norderney (East Frisia, Germany) in relation to climate variability. Mar. Ecol Prog Ser 167:25-36
63. Legendre L, Demers S (1984) Towards dynamic biological oceanography and limnology. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 41:2-19
64. Legendre P, Legendre L (1998) Numerical ecology, 2nd edn. Elsevier Science BV, Amsterdam
65. Lehodey P, Alheit J, Barange M, Baumgartner T and others (2006) Climate variability, fish and fisheries. J Clim 19:5009-5030
66. Le Tissier MDA, Buddemeier R, Parslow J, Swaney DP and others (2006) The role of the coastal ocean in the disturbed and undisturbed nutrient and carbon cycles-a management perspective. Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ), Geesthacht
67. Lewis DM, Bala SI (2006) Plankton predation rates in turbulence: a study of the limitations imposed on a predator with a non-spherical field of sensory perception. J Theor Biol 242:44-61
68. Lewis DM, Pedley TJ (2001) The influence of turbulence on plankton predation strategies. J Theor Biol 210:347-365
69. Lindahl O, Belgrano A, Davidsson L, Hernroth B (1998) Primary production, climatic oscillations, and physicochemical processes: the Gullmar Fjord time-series data set (1985-1996). ICES J Mar. Sci 55:723-729
70. Livingston RJ, Niu X, Lewis III FG, Woodsum GC (1997) Freshwater input to a gulf estuary: long-term control of trophic organization. Ecol Appl 7:277-299
71. Lotze HK, Worm B (2002) Complex interactions of climatic and ecological controls on macroalgal recruitment. Limnol Oceanogr 47:1734-1741
72. Ludwig W, Dumont E, Meybeck M, Heusser S (2009) River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black Sea: major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades? Prog Oceanogr 80:199-217
73. Marshall J, Kushnir Y, Battisti D, Chang P and others (2001) North Atlantic climate variability: phenomena, impacts and mechanisms. Int J Climatol 21:1863-1898
74. Marty JC, Chiavérini J, Pizay MD, Avril B (2002) Seasonal and interannual dynamics of nutrients and phytoplankton pigments in the western Mediterranean Sea at the DYFAMED time-series station (1991-1999). Deep-Sea Res II 49:1965-1985 (Pubitemid 34609040)
75. Milliman JD, Farnsworth KL, Jones PD, Xu KH, Smith LC (2008) Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000. Global Planet Change 62:187-194
76. Najjar RG, Walker HA, Anderson PJ, Barron EJ and others (2000) The potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Clim Res 14:219-233
77. New M, Todd M, Hulme M, Jones P (2001) Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century. Int J Climatol 21:1889-1922
78. Nielsen KJ (2003) Nutrient loading and consumers: agents of change in open-coast macrophyte assemblages. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100:7660-7665
79. Norse EA (1993) Global marine biological diversity: a strategy for building conservation into decision making. Island Press, Washington, DC
80. North Sea Task Force (1993) North Sea quality status report 1993. Oslo and Paris Commissions, London and Olsen & Olsen, Fredensborg
81. Ohman MD, Hirche HJ (2001) Density-dependent mortality in an oceanic copepod population. Nature 412:638-641
82. Omori M, Norman CP (1998) Anthropogenic short-term effects on distribution patterns and food webs of pelagic organisms. Proc 2nd Int Conf on Pelagic Biogeography ICoPBII. Final report of SCOR/IOC Working Group 93 Pelagic Biogeography, Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands, 9 Jul-14 Jul. 1955. Workshop report no. 142, p 279-284. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Paris
83. Omori M, Van der Spoel S, Norman CP (1994) Impact of human activities on pelagic biogeography. Prog Oceanogr 34:211-219
84. Paillard D (2001) Glacial hiccups. Nature 409:147-148
85. Peperzak L (2003) Climate change and harmful algal blooms in the North Sea. Acta Oecol 24:S139-S144
86. Planque B, Reid PC (1998) Predicting Calanus finmarchicus abundance from a climatic signal. J Mar. Biol Assoc UK 78:1015-1018
87. Pyper BJ, Peterman RM (1998) Comparison of methods to account for autocorrelation analyses of fish data. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 55:2127-2140
88. Ragueneau O, Quéguiner B, Tréguer P (1996) Contrast in biological responses to tidally-induced vertical mixing for two macrotidal ecosystems of Western Europe. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 42:645-665
89. Rahmstorf S (1995) Bifurcations of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to changes in the hydrological cycle. Nature 378:145-149
90. Reid PC, Edwards M, Beaugrand G, Skogen M, Stevens D (2003) Periodic changes in the zooplankton of the North Sea during the twentieth century linked to oceanic inflow. Fish Oceanogr 12:260-269
91. Reynolds RW, Smith TM (1994) Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimum interpolation. J Clim 7:929-948
92. Richardson AJ, Schoeman DS (2004) Climate impact on plankton ecosystems in the northeast Atlantic. Science 305:1609-1612
93. Rogers JC (1997) North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate variability of northern Europe. J Clim 10:1635-1647
94. Sarmiento JL, Gruber N (2006) Ocean biogeochemical dynamics. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
95. Scavia D, Field JC, Boesch DF, Buddemeier RW and others (2002) Climate change impacts on U. S. coastal and marine ecosystems. Estuaries 25:149-164
96. Scheffer M, Carpenter S, Foley JA, Folke C, Walker B (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591-596
97. Selman M, Greenhalgh S, Diaz R, Sugg Z (2008) Eutrophication and hypoxia in coastal areas: a global assessment of the state of knowledge. Water quality: Eutrophication and Hypoxia Policy Note Series No. 1, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC
98. Sokal RR, Rohlf FJ (1995) Biometry. The principles and practice of statistics in biological research. 3rd edn. W. H. Freeman and Co., New York, NY
99. Sournia A, Brylinski JM, Dallot S, Le Corre P, Leveau M, Prieur L, Froget C (1990) Fronts hydrologiques au large des côtes françaises: les sites-ateliers du programme Frontal. Oceanol Acta 13:413-438
100. Southward A (1995) The importance of long time-series in understanding the variability of natural systems. Helgol Mar. Res 49:329-333
101. Steneck RS (1998) Human influences on coastal ecosystems: Does overfishing create trophic cascades? Trends Ecol Evol 13:429-430
102. Sverdrup HU (1953) On conditions for the vernal blooming of phytoplankton. J Cons Int Explor Mer 18:287-295
103. Taylor AH, Allen JI, Clark PA (2002) Extraction of a weak climatic signal by an ecosystem. Nature 416:629-632
104. Vafeidis AT, Nicholls RJ, McFadden L, Hinkel J, Grasshoff PS (2004) Developing a global database for coastal vulnerability analysis: design issues and challenges. Int Arch Photogram Rem Sens Spat Inf Sci 34:801-805
105. Warwick RM, Ashman CM, Brown AR, Clarke KR and others (2002) Inter-annual changes in the biodiversity and community structure of the macrobenthos in Tees Bay and the Tees estuary, UK, associated with local and regional environmental events. Mar. Ecol Prog Ser 234:1-13
106. Winder M, Schindler DE (2004) Climate change uncouples trophic interactions in an aquatic ecosystem. Ecology 85:2100-2106