The effects of presenting imprecise probabilities in intelligence forecasts

Risk Analysis

Volumn 30, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 987-1001

  Dieckmann, Nathan F ^a   Mauro, Robert ^a   Slovic, Paul ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OREGON   (United States)

Author keywords

Ambiguity; Analytic uncertainty; Forecasting; Imprecise probability; Risk communication

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKERS; IMPRECISE PROBABILITIES; LOWER PROBABILITIES; POINT ESTIMATE; POLICY ANALYSIS; POLICY MAKERS; PROBABILITY ASSESSMENTS; RISK COMMUNICATION;

DECISION MAKING; FORECASTING; PROBABILISTIC LOGICS;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

DECISION MAKING; FORECASTING METHOD; PARTICIPATORY APPROACH; POLICY ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ARTICLE; HUMAN; INTELLIGENCE; PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY;

HUMANS; INTELLIGENCE; PROBABILITY; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 77954093303     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01384.x     Document Type: Article

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