Towards quantification of uncertainty in predicting water quality failures in integrated catchment model studies

Water Research

Volumn 44, Issue 13, 2010, Pages 3893-3904

  Schellart, A N A ^a   Tait, S J ^b   Ashley, R M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRADFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Flow quality modelling; Integrated modelling study; Receiving water impact; Sewer emissions; Uncertainty; Water quality failure

Indexed keywords

BINARY ALLOYS; BIOCHEMICAL OXYGEN DEMAND; CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE CHANGE; DISSOLVED OXYGEN; FORECASTING; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; RUNOFF; SEWERS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; URANIUM ALLOYS;

FLOW QUALITY; FLOW QUALITY MODELING; INTEGRATED MODELING; INTEGRATED MODELING STUDY; MODELLING STUDIES; QUALITY MODELING; RECEIVING WATER IMPACT; RECEIVING WATERS; SEWER EMISSIONS; UNCERTAINTY; WATER IMPACT; WATER QUALITY FAILURE;

WATER QUALITY;

CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; MODELING; RAINFALL; RIVER FLOW; SEWER NETWORK; URBAN DRAINAGE; WATER FLOW; WATER QUALITY;

ARTICLE; CATCHMENT; CONTROLLED STUDY; HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY; PARTICLE SIZE; PREDICTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROBABILITY; RIVER; SEDIMENT; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SEWER; SOIL MOISTURE; UNCERTAINTY; URBAN AREA; WASTE WATER; WATER QUALITY; CHEMICAL MODEL; CHEMISTRY; FLOW KINETICS; ISOLATION AND PURIFICATION; STANDARD; STANDARDS; SURFACE PROPERTY; WATER POLLUTANT; WEATHER;

UNITED KINGDOM;

OXYGEN; WATER; WATER POLLUTANT;

GEOLOGIC SEDIMENTS; MODELS, CHEMICAL; OXYGEN; REFERENCE STANDARDS; RHEOLOGY; SURFACE PROPERTIES; UNCERTAINTY; WATER; WATER POLLUTANTS, CHEMICAL; WEATHER;

EID: 77953810469     PISSN: 00431354     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2010.05.001     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Ackers J.C., Butler D., May R.W.P. Design of Sewers to Control Sediment Problems 1996, Report 141, Construction Industry Research and Information Association, London, UK.
2. Ainger C.M., Armstrong R.J., Butler D. Dry Weather Flow in Sewers 1998, Report 177, Construction Industry Research and Information Association, London, UK.
3. Artina S., Bolognesi A., Liserra T., Maglionico M. Simulation of a storm sewer network in industrial area: comparison between models calibrated through experimental data. Environ. Model. Software 2007, 22:1221-1228.
4. Solids in Sewers. Scientific and Technical Report No. 14 2004, IWA Publishing, London, UK. R.M. Ashley, J.-L. Bertrand-Krajewski, T. Hvitved-Jacobsen, M. Verbanck (Eds.).
5. Ashley R., Bertrand-Krajewski J.-L., Hvitved-Jacobsen T. Sewer solids-20 years of investigation. Water Sci. Technol. 2005, 52(3):73-84.
6. Benedetti, L., Bixio, D., Vanrolleghem, P.A., 2005. Assessment of WWTP design and upgrade options: balancing costs and risks of standards' exceedance. In: Proc. 10th Int. Conf. on Urban Drainage, 21-26 August, Copenhagen, Denmark.
7. Bertrand-Krajewski, J.-L., 2006. Influence of field data sets on calibration and verification of stormwater pollutant models. In: Proc. 7th Conf. Urban Drainage Modelling, Melbourne, Australia.
8. Bertrand-Krajewski J.-L., Bardin J.-P. Evaluation of uncertainties in urban hydrology: application to volumes and pollutant loads in a storage and settling tank. Water Sci. Technol. 2002, 45(4-5):437-444.
9. Beven K.J., Binley A.M. The future of distributed models - model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol. Process. 1992, 6(3):279-298.
10. Bouteligier, R., Vaes, G., Berlamont, J., 2002. In sewer sediment and pollutant transport models. In: Proceedings 3rd Sewer Processes and Networks, Paris, France, pp. 47-54.
11. Bouteligier R., Vaes G., Berlamont J., Flamink C., Langeveld J.G., Clemens F. Advection-dispersion modelling tools: what about numerical dispersion?. Water Sci. Technol. 2005, 52(3):19-27.
12. Box G.E.P. The exploration and exploitation of response surfaces: some general considerations and examples. Biometrics 1954, 10:16-60.
13. Bujon, G., Herremans, L., 1990. Modèle de prévision des débits et des flux polluants en réseaux d'assainissement par temps de pluie Calage et validation. La Houille Blanche, No 2.
14. Chebbo G., Musquere P., Milisic V., Bachoc A. Characterization of solids transferred into sewer trunks during wet weather. Water Sci. Technol. 1990, 22(10/11):231-238.
15. Clemens, F.H.L.R., Von der Heide, W., 1999. Effect of geometrical errors in hydrodynamic calculation in urban drainage. In: Proceedings of the 8th ICUSD, Aug. 1999, Sydney, Australia, pp. 955-963.
16. Dahal, M.R., Petry, B., van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M., Gupta, S., Vrijling, J.K., 2005. Reliability analysis of flood defences using importance sampling and response database with probabilistic loops in large hydraulic models. In: Proceedings ISSH - Stochastic Hydraulics, 23-24 May 2005, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
17. DHI (Website checked February 2009). http://www.dhigroup.com/Software/WaterResources/MIKEBASIN/Details/RainfallRunoff.aspx.
18. Ellis J.B. Pollutional aspects of urban runoff. Urban Runoff Pollution 1986, vol. G10. Springer Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg. H.C. Torna, J. Marsalek, M. Desbordes (Eds.).
19. Freni G., Mannina G., Viviani G. Uncertainty in urban stormwater quality modelling: the effect of acceptability threshold in the GLUE methodology. Water Res. 2008, 42:2061-2072.
20. FWR (Foundation for Water Research) Manual, Urban Pollution Management 1998, (CD Rom). October 1998, FR/CL0009. second ed.
21. Garthwaite P.H., Kadane J.B., O'Hagan A. Statistical methods for eliciting probability distributions. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 2005, 100:470.
22. Gent, R.J., Crabtree, R.W., Osborne, M.P., 1992. MOSQITO 2 Testing. Foundation for Water Research Report No. FR0311.
23. Harremoës P., Madsen H. Fiction and reality in the modelling world - balance between simplicity and complexity, calibration and identifiability, verification and falsification. Water Sci. Technol 1999, 39(9):1-8.
24. Haydon S., Deletic A. Model output uncertainty of a coupled pathogen indicator-hydrologic catchment model due to input data uncertainty. Environ. Model. Software 2009, 24:322-328.
25. Kadane J.B., Wolfson L.J. Experiences in elicitation. The Statistician 1998, 47(1):3-19.
26. Kanso A., Gromaire M.-C., Gaume E., Tassin B., Chebbo G. Bayesian approach for the calibration of models: application to an urban stormwater pollution model. Water Sci. Technol. 2003, 47(4):77-84.
27. Korving, H., 2004. Probabilistic assessment of the performance of combined sewer systems. PhD thesis, Technische Universiteit Delft, Delft, The Netherlands.
28. Khuri A.I., Cornell J.A. Response Surfaces: Design and Analyses 1987, Marcel and Dekker, New York.
29. Mannina G., Freni G., Viviani S., Sægrov S., Hafskjold L.S. Integrated urban water modelling with uncertainty analysis. Water Sci. Technol. 2006, 54(6-7):379-386.
30. McCarthy D.T., Deletic A., Mitchell V.G., Fletcher T.D., Diaper C. Uncertainties in stormwater E. coli levels. Water Res. 2008, 42:1812-1824.
31. Mourad M., Bertrand-Krajewski J.-L., Chebbo G. Sensitivity to experimental data of pollutant site mean concentration in stormwater runoff. Water Sci. Technol. 2005, 51(2):155-162.
32. Muschalla, D., Schütze, M., Schroeder, K., Bach, M., Blumensaat, F., Klepiszewski, K., Pabst, M., Pressl, A., Schindler, N., Wiese, J., Gruber, G., 2008. The HSG guideline document for modelling integrated urban wastewater systems. In: Proceedings 11th International Conference on Urban Drainage, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
33. O'Hagan A. Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications. The Statistician 1998, 47(1):21-35.
34. Osborne M., Lau T. Water quality modelling - Simpol, Simon and Infoworks. WaPUG Autumn Meeting, Blackpool, United Kingdom 2003, http://www.ciwem.org/groups/wapug/.
35. Packman J. New Hydrology model. WaPUG Spring Meeting 1990 1990, http://www.ciwem.org/groups/wapug/.
36. Pappenberger F., Harvey H., Beven K., Hall J., Meadowcroft I. Decision tree for choosing an uncertainty analysis methodology: a wiki experiment. Hydrol. Process. 2006, 20(17):3793-3798.
37. Priestley M., Barker C. Integrated catchment modelling for freshwater fisheries directive compliance. Scottish WaPUG Spring Meeting 2006, http://www.ciwem.org/groups/wapug/.
38. Rauch W., Aalderink H., Krebs P., Schilling W., Vanrolleghem P. Requirements for integrated wastewater models - driven by receiving water objectives. Water Sci. Technol. 1998, 38(11):97-104.
39. Rauch W., Bertrand-Krajewski J.-L., Krebs P., Mark O., Schilling W., Schutze M., Vanrolleghem P.A. Deterministic modelling of integrated urban drainage systems. Water Sci. Technol. 2002, 45(3):81-94.
40. Rousseau D., Verdonck F., Moerman O., Thoeye C., Meirlaen J., Vanrolleghem P.A. Development of a risk assessment based technique for design/retrofitting of WWTPs. Water Sci. Technol. 2001, 43(7):287-294.
41. Sarginson E.J., Nussey B.B. The explicit computation of urban runoff. Urban Drainage Systems: Proceedings of the First International Seminar, Southampton, England, September 1982 1982, R.E. Featherstone, A. James (Eds.).
42. Schellart, A.N.A., 2007. Analysis of uncertainty in the sewer sediment transport predictions used for sewer management purposes. PhD thesis, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom.
43. Schellart A.N.A., Buijs F.A., Tait S.J., Ashley R.M. Estimation of uncertainty in long term combined sewer sediment behaviour predictions, a UK case study. Water Sci. Technol. 2008, 57(9):1405-1412.
44. Schellart, A., Tait, S., Ashley, R.M., 2010. Estimation of uncertainty in long term sewer sediment build-up predictions, using a response database. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 136 (7), http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0000193.
45. Slijkhuis K.A.H., Van Gelder P.H.A.J.M., Vrijling J.K., Vrouwenvelder A.C.W.M. On the lack of information in hydraulic engineering models. Safety and Reliability. Proc. of Esrel '99 - 10th European Conference on Safety and Reliability. Munich-Garching, Germany 1999, 713-718. G.I. Schüller, P. Kafka (Eds.).
46. Thorndahl S., Beven K.J., Jensen J.B., Schaapur-Jensen K. Event based uncertainty assessment in urban drainage modelling, applying the GLUE methodology. J. Hydrol. 2008, 357:421-437.
47. Verbanck, M., Vanderborght, J.P., Wollast, P., 1990. Size distributions of suspended particles in combined sewers during dry and wet weather. In: Proc. 5th Int. Conf. on Urban Storm Drainage, Osaka, Japan, pp. 891-896.
48. WaPUG Code of Practice for the Hydraulic Modelling of Sewer Systems 2002, http://www.ciwem.org/groups/wapug/.
49. Willems P. Quantification and relative comparison of different types of uncertainties in sewer water quality modelling. Water Res. 2008, 42:3539-3551.
50. Willems P. Parsimonious model for combined sewer overflow pollution. J. Environ. Eng 2010, 136(3):316-325.
51. Willems P., Berlamont J. Probabilistic modelling of sewer system overflow emissions. Water Sci. Technol. 1999, 39(9):47-54.
52. Wotherspoon, D.J.J., 1994. The movement of cohesive sediment in a large combined sewer. PhD thesis, University of Abertay, Dundee, Scotland.
53. WRc (website checked, February 2009). http://www.wrcplc.co.uk/stormpac/asp/about.asp.
54. Wynne B. Uncertainty and environmental learning. Reconceiving science and policy in the preventive paradigm. Global Environ. Change 1992, 2(2):111-127.