Worldwide decline in the oldest old support ratio

European Geriatric Medicine

Volumn 1, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 3-8

  Herrmann, F R ^a   Michel, J P ^a   Robine, J M ^a,b  

^a GENEVA UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS   (Switzerland)

^b CENTRE VAL D AURELLE   (France)

Author keywords

Aged; Caregivers; Forecasting; Health services for the aged; Organization administration; Trends

Indexed keywords

AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGED; ARTICLE; BIRTH RATE; DATA BASE; DEMOGRAPHY; FERTILITY; FORECASTING; GERIATRIC CARE; HEALTH SERVICE; HUMAN; INFANT MORTALITY; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MORTALITY; MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SUPPORT GROUP; UNITED NATIONS;

EID: 77953677637     PISSN: 18787649     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.eurger.2010.01.003     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Manton K.G., Lowrimore G.R., Ullian A.D., et al. From the Cover: Labor force participation and human capital increases in an aging population and implications for U.S. research investment. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104 26 (2007) 10802-10807
2. Oeppen J., Vaupel J.W., and Demography. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science 296 5570 (2002) 1029-1031
3. Tuljapurkar S., Li N., and Boe C. A universal pattern of mortality decline in the G7 countries. Nature 405 6788 (2000) 789-792
4. Vaupel J.W., and Jeune B. The Emergence and Proliferation of Centenarians. In: Jeune B., and Vaupel J.W. (Eds). Exceptional Longevity: From Prehistory to the Present (1995), Odense University Press, Odense 169
5. Robine J.M., Saito Y., and Jagger C. The emergence of extremely old people: the case of Japan. Exp Gerontol 38 7 (2003) 735-739
6. Cigolle C.T., Langa K.M., Kabeto M.U., et al. Geriatric conditions and disability: the Health and Retirement Study. Ann Intern Med 147 3 (2007) 156-164
7. Asbell P.A., Dualan I., Mindel J., et al. Age-related cataract. Lancet 365 9459 (2005) 599-609
8. Ferri C.P., Prince M., Brayne C., et al. Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study. Lancet 366 9503 (2005) 2112-2117
9. Kannus P., Sievanen H., Palvanen M., et al. Prevention of falls and consequent injuries in elderly people. Lancet 366 9500 (2005) 1885-1893
10. Sambrook P., and Cooper C. Osteoporosis. Lancet 367 9527 (2006) 2010-2018
11. Strandberg T.E., and Pitkala K.H. Frailty in elderly people. Lancet 369 9570 (2007) 1328-1329
12. Zhang T., and Chen Y. Meeting the needs of elderly people in China. BMJ 333 7564 (2006) 363-364
13. Harwood R.H., Sayer A.A., and Hirschfeld M. Current and future worldwide prevalence of dependency, its relationship to total population, and dependency ratios. Bull World Health Organ 82 4 (2004) 251-258
14. Abbott A. Ageing: growing old gracefully. Nature 428 6979 (2004) 116-118
15. Stuck A.E., Beck J.C., and Egger M. Preventing disability in elderly people. Lancet 364 9446 (2004) 1641-1642
16. Ebrahim S. Disability in older people: a mass problem requiring mass solutions. Lancet 353 9169 (1999) 1990-1992
17. The coming crisis of long-term care. Lancet 361 9371 (2003) 1755
18. Freedman V.A., Agree E.M., Martin L.G., et al. Trends in the use of assistive technology and personal care for late-life disability, 1992-2001. Gerontologist 46 1 (2006) 124-127
19. Kaye H.S., Chapman S., Newcomer R.J., et al. The personal assistance workforce: trends in supply and demand. Health Aff 25 4 (2006) 1113-1120
20. Adams O., and Stilwell B. Health professionals and migration. Bull World Health Organ 82 8 (2004) 560
21. Stilwell B., Diallo K., Zurn P., et al. Migration of health-care workers from developing countries: strategic approaches to its management. Bull World Health Organ 82 8 (2004) 595-600
22. Pond B., and McPake B. The health migration crisis: the role of four Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. Lancet 367 9520 (2006) 1448-1455
23. Grimley Evans J. Solving an age-old problem. Nature 442 (2006) 869
24. Browne C.V., and Braun K.L. Globalization, women's migration, and the long-term-care workforce. Gerontologist 48 1 (2008) 16-24
25. Scheffler R.M., Liu J.X., Kinfu Y., et al. Forecasting the global shortage of physicians: an economic- and needs-based approach. Bull World Health Organ 86 7 (2008) 516-523
26. Doyle M., and Timonen V. The different faces of care work: understanding the experiences of the multi-cultural care workforce. Ageing Soc 29 (2009) 337-350
27. Brannon D., Barry T., Kemper P., et al. Job perceptions and intent to leave among direct care workers: evidence from the better jobs better care demonstrations. Gerontologist 47 6 (2007) 820-829
28. Fleming G., and Taylor B.J. Battle on the home care front: perceptions of home care workers of factors influencing staff retention in Northern Ireland. Health Social Care Commun 15 1 (2007) 67-76
29. Howes C. Love, money, or flexibility: what motivates people to work in consumer-directed home care? Gerontologist 2008;48 Spec No 1:46-59.
30. Montgomery R.J., Holley L., Deichert J., et al. A profile of home care workers from the 2000 census: how it changes what we know. Gerontologist 45 5 (2005) 593-600
31. Stone R.I. The direct care worker: the third rail of home care policy. Annu Rev Public Health 25 (2004) 521-537
32. Fujisawa R, Colombo F. The long-term care workforce: overview and strategies to adapt supply to a growing demand. Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs. OECD Health working papers No. 44. Paris: OECD 2009.
33. Leppard D. Home Office in illegal immigrants cover-up. 2008 [updated 2008 March 30, 2008 cited 2009 12.03.2009]; March 30, 2008 [Available from: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3646516.ece].
34. Grundy E., and Jitlal M. Sociodemographic variations in moves to institutional care 1991-2001: a record linkage study from England and Wales. Age Ageing 36 4 (2007) 424-430
35. Wanless D. Securing Good Care for Older People: Taking a long-term view. London: King's Fund; 2006.
36. Hussein S., Stevens M., Manthorpe J., et al. Banned from working in social care: a secondary analysis of staff characteristics and reasons for their referrals to the POVA list in England and Wales. Health Social Care Commun 17 5 (2009) 423-433
37. Cooper C., Selwood A., Blanchard M., et al. Abuse of people with dementia by family carers: representative cross sectional survey. BMJ 338 (2009) b155
38. Robine J.M., Michel J.P., and Herrmann F.R. Who will care for the oldest people in our ageing society?. Bmj. 334 7593 (2007) 570-571
39. World Population Prospects: The 2004 revision Population database. United Nations Population Division; 2005 [updated 2005 25.7.2006; cited]; Available from: http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=2.
40. Population Reference Bureau: 2006 World Population Data Sheet. 2006 [updated 2006; cited; 16]. Available from: http://www.prb.org/pdf06/06WorldDataSheet.pdf.
41. Kinsella K, Gist YJ. Older Workers, Retirement, and Pensions. A Comparative International Chartbook. Washington: U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration, Bureau of the census; 1995.
42. Gaymu J., Ekamper P., and Beets G. Who will be caring for Europe's dependent elders in 2030?. Population-E 62 4 (2007) 675-706
43. Schoeni R.F., Freedman V.A., and Martin L.G. Why is late-life disability declining?. Milbank Q. 86 1 (2008) 47-89
44. Lafortune G, Balestat G. Trends in Severe Disability Among Elderly People: Assessing the Evidence in 12 OECD Countries and the Future Implications. PARIS: OECD Publishing; 2007 30/03/2007.
45. Kemper P, Heier B, Barry T, et al. What do direct care workers say would improve their jobs? Differences across settings. Gerontologist. 2008;48 Spec No 1:17-25.
46. Jorgensen D., Parsons M., Reid M.G., et al. The providers' profile of the disability support workforce in New Zealand. Health Soc Care Comm 17 4 (2009) 396-405
47. Michel J.P., Newton J.L., and Kirkwood T.B. Medical challenges of improving the quality of a longer life. JAMA 299 6 (2008) 688-690
48. Neuberger J. The fear of old age. Lancet 371 9626 (2008) 1743-1744
49. Stevenson D.G. Planning for the future--long-term care and the 2008 election. N Engl J Med 358 19 (2008) 1985-1987