Dynamic evidential reasoning algorithm for systems reliability prediction

International Journal of Systems Science

Volumn 41, Issue 7, 2010, Pages 783-796

  Hu, Chang Hua ^a   Si, Xiao Sheng ^a   Yang, Jian Bo ^b  

^a XI'AN RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Dynamic evidential reasoning; Forecasting; Nonlinear optimisation; Reliability; Utility

Indexed keywords

ENGINE SYSTEMS; EVIDENTIAL REASONING; FORECAST RELIABILITY; FORECASTING MODELS; NONLINEAR OPTIMISATION; NUMERICAL EXAMPLE; OPTIMAL PARAMETER; PREDICTION MODEL; RELIABILITY PREDICTION; UTILITY;

ALGORITHMS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OPTIMIZATION; RELIABILITY;

FORECASTING;

EID: 77953507635     PISSN: 00207721     EISSN: 14645319     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00207720903267874     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Ascher, H., and Hung, S. (1987), Repairable System Reliability, New York: Marcel Dekker Inc.
2. Box, G.E., and Jenkins, G.M. (1970), Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, San Francisco: Holden-Day.
3. Chang, P.T., Lin, K.P., and Pai, P.F. (2004), 'Hybrid Learning Fuzzy Neural Models in Forecasting Engine Systems Reliability', in Proceeding of the Fifth Asia Pacific Industrial Engineering and Management Systems Conference, Australia, Gold Coast, pp. 2361-2366.
4. Chen, K.Y. (2007), 'Forecasting Systems Reliability Based on Support Vector Regression with Genetic Algorithms', Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 92, 423-432.
5. Connor, J.T., Martin, D., and Atlas, L.E. (1994), 'Recurrent Neural Networks and Robust Time Series Prediction', IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 5, 240-254.
6. Dempster, A.P. (1967), 'Upper and Lower Probabilities Induced by a Multi-Valued Mapping', Annals Mathematical Statistics, 38, 325-339.
7. Falk, B., and Roy, A. (2005), 'Forecasting Using the Trend Model with Autoregressive Errors', International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 291-302.
8. Ho, S.L., and Xie, M. (1998), 'The Use of ARIMA Models for Reliability Forecasting and Analysis', Computer and Industrial Engineering, 35, 213-216.
9. Hu, C.H., Si, X.S., Yang, J.B., and Zhou, Z.J., (2008), 'On the Dynamic Evidential Reasoning Algorithm for Fault Prediction'. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part A: Systems and Humans, accepted with major revisions.
10. Liang, T., and Afzel, N. (2005), 'Evolutionary Neural Network Modeling for Software Cumulative Failure Time Prediction', Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 87, 45-51.
11. Liang, T., and Afzel, N. (2006), 'Reply to 'Comment on "Evolutionary Neural Network modeling for Software Cumulative Failure Time Prediction" by Liang Tian and Afzel Noore", by Bev Littlewood', Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 91, 487-491.
12. Liang, Y.H. (2007), 'Evolutionary Neural Network Modelling for Forecasting the Field Failure Data of Repairable Systems', Expert Systems with Applications, 33, 1090-1096.
13. Liang, Y.H., and Tong, L.I. (2001), 'Analyzing and Forecasting the Field Failure Data for Repairable Systems', Journal of Quality, 8, 75-96.
14. Liu, J., Yang, J.B., Ruan, D., Martinez, L., and Wang, J. (2008), 'Self-Tuning of Fuzzy Belief Rule Bases for Engineering System Safety Analysis', Annals Operational Research, 163, 143-168.
15. Liu, J., Yang, J.B., Wang, J., Sii, H.S., and Wang, Y.M. (2004), 'Fuzzy Rule-Based Evidential Reasoning Approach for Safety Analysis', International Journal of General Systems, 33, 183-204.
16. Nelson, W. (1988), Applied Life Data Analysis, New York: Wiley.
17. Niu, G., and Yang, B.S. (2009), 'Dempster-Shafer Regression for Multi-Step-Ahead Time-Series Prediction Towards Data-Driven Machinery Prognosis', Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 23, 740-751.
18. Pai, P.F. (2006), 'Systems Reliability Forecasting Based on Support Vector Machines with Genetic Algorithms', Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 43, 262-1247
19. Peddle, D.R. (1995), 'Mercury : An Evidential Reasoning Image Classifier', Computer and Geosciences, 21, 1163-1173.
20. Petit-Renaud, S., and Denoeux, T. (2004), 'Nonparametric Regression Analysis of Uncertain and Imprecise Data Using Belief Functions', International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 35, 1-28.
21. Sanz, C. (2001), 'DER (Dynamic Evidential Reasoning), Applied to the Classification of Hyperspectral Images', in Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, Australia, Sydney, pp. 1904-1906.
22. Shafer, G. (1976), A Mathematical Theory of Evidence, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.
23. Singpurwala, N.D. (1978), 'Estimating Reliability Growth Using Time Series Analysis', Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, 25, 1-14.
24. Singh, N., Chrys, D.A., and Frishwick, P.A. (1994), 'Forecasting Time-Dependent Failure Rates of Systems Operating in Series and/or in Parallel', Microelectronic Reliability, 34, 391-400.
25. Smets, P. (2007), 'Analyzing the Combination of Conflicting Belief Functions', Information Fusion, 8, 387-412.
26. Tong, L.I., and Liang, Y.H. (2005), 'Forecasting Field Failure Data for Repairable Systems using Neural Networks and SARIMA Model', International Journal of Quality and Reliability Management, 22, 410-420.
27. Wang, W. (2007), 'An Adaptive Predictor for Dynamic Systems Forecasting', Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 21, 809-823. (Pubitemid 44667411)
28. Wang, Y.M., and Elhag, T.M.S. (2007), 'A Comparison of Neural Network, Evidential Reasoning and Multiple Regression Analysis in Modeling Bridge Risks', Expert Systems and Applications, 32, 336-348.
29. Wang, Y.M., and Elhag, T.M.S. (2008), 'Evidential Reasoning Approach for Bridge Condition Assessment', Expert Systems with Applications, 34, 689-699.
30. Wang, J., Yang, T.B., and Sen, P. (1995), 'Safety analysis and synthesis using fuzzy sets and evidential reasoning', Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, 47, 103-118.
31. Wang, J., Yang, J.B., and Sen, P. (1996), 'Multi-person and multi-attribute design evaluations using evidential reasoning based on subjective safety and cost analysis', Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, 52, 113-128.
32. Wang, Y.M., Yang, J.B., and Xu, D.L. (2006), 'Environmental Impact Assessment Using the Evidential Reasoning Approach', European Journal of Operational Research, 174, 1885-1913.
33. Xu, D.L., Liu, J., Yang, J.B., Liu, G.P., Wang, J., Jemkinson, I., and Ren, J. (2007), 'Inference and Learning Methodology of Belief-Rule-Based Expert System for Pipeline Leak detection', Expert Systems and Applications, 32, 103-113.
34. Xu., K., Xie, M., Tang, L.C., and Ho, S.L. (2003), 'Application of Neural Networks in Forecasting Engine Reliability', Applied Soft Computing, 2, 255-268.
35. Yang, J.B. (2001), 'Rule and Utility Based Evidential Reasoning Approach for Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis under Uncertainties', European Journal of Operational Research, 131, 31-61.
36. Yang, J.B., Liu, J., Wang, J., Sii, H.S., and Wang, H.W. (2006), 'Belief Rule-Base inference Methodology Using the Evidential Reasoning Approach-RIMER', IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans, 30, 266-285.
37. Yang, J.B., Liu, J., Xu, D.L., Wang, J., and Wang, H.W. (2007), 'Optimization Models for Training Belief-Rule-Based Systems', IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans, 37, 569-585.
38. Yang, J.B., and Singh, M.G. (1994), 'An Evidential Reasoning Approach for Multiple-Attribute Decision Making with Uncertainty', IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 24, 1-18.
39. Yang, J.B., and Xu, D.L. (2002a), 'On the Evidential Reasoning Algorithm for Multiple Attribute Decision Analysis under Uncertainty', IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans, 32, 289-304.
40. Yang, J.B., and Xu, D.L. (2002b), 'Nonlinear Information Aggregation via Evidential Reasoning in Multiattribute Decision Analysis under Uncertainty', IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics - Part A: Systems and Humans, 32, 376-393.