Future cardiovascular disease in China Markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the coronary heart disease Policy Model-China

Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes

Volumn 3, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 243-252

  Moran, Andrew ^a,b   Gu, Dongfeng ^c,d   Zhao, Dong ^a,e,f   Coxson, Pamela ^g   Wang, Y Claire ^h   Chen, Chung Shiuan ⁱ   Liu, Jing ^e,f   Cheng, Jun ^e,f   Bibbins Domingo, Kirsten ^g   Shen, Yu Ming ^a   He, Jiang ⁱ   Goldman, Lee ^b  

^a NewYork Presbyterian Hospital   (United States)

^b Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons ^*  (United States)

^c FUWAI HOSPITAL   (China)

^d National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases   (China)

^e BEIJING INSTITUTE OF HEART   (China)

^f CAPITAL MEDICAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^g UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^h Department of Health Policy and Management ^*  (United States)

ⁱ TULANE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

Author keywords

China; Computer modeling; Coronary heart disease; Risk factors; Stroke

Indexed keywords

CHOLESTEROL;

ADULT; AGED; AGING; ARTICLE; BLOOD PRESSURE REGULATION; BODY MASS; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CHINA; CHINESE; CHOLESTEROL BLOOD LEVEL; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DEATH; DIABETES MELLITUS; EPIDEMIC; FEMALE; FUTUROLOGY; HUMAN; ISCHEMIC HEART DISEASE; MALE; POPULATION GROWTH; PREVALENCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RISK FACTOR; SMOKING; STROKE; SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CORONARY DISEASE; FORECASTING; HEALTH CARE POLICY; MIDDLE AGED; PROBABILITY; TRENDS; VERY ELDERLY;

ADULT; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; CHINA; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CORONARY DISEASE; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HEALTH POLICY; HUMANS; MALE; MARKOV CHAINS; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, CARDIOVASCULAR; RISK FACTORS;

EID: 77953465659     PISSN: 19417713     EISSN: 19417705     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.109.910711     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Drewnowski A, Popkin BM. The nutrition transition: new trends in the global diet. Nutr Rev. 1997;55:31-43.
2. Wang LD. Comprehensive report, Chinese nutrition and health survey in 2002. Beijing: People's Medical Publishing House; 2005.
3. Paeratakul S, Popkin BM, Keyou G, Adair LS, Stevens J. Changes in diet and physical activity affect the body mass index of Chinese adults. Int J Obes Relat Metab Disord. 1998;22:424-431.
4. Wildman RP, Gu D, Muntner P, Wu X, Reynolds K, Duan X, Chen CS, Huang G, Bazzano LA, He J. Trends in overweight and obesity in Chinese adults: between 1991 and 1999-2000. Obesity (Silver Spring, Md). 2008;16:1448-1453.
5. Gu D, Wu X, Reynolds K, Duan X, Xin X, Reynolds RF, Whelton PK, He J. Cigarette smoking and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in China: the international collaborative study of cardiovascular disease in Asia. Am J Public Health. 2004;94:1972-1976.
6. Liu J, Hong Y, D'Agostino RB Sr, Wu Z, Wang W, Sun J, Wilson PW, Kannel WB, Zhao D. Predictive value for the Chinese population of the Framingham CHD risk assessment tool compared with the Chinese Multi-Provincial Cohort Study. JAMA. 2004;291:2591-2599.
7. Wu Y, Liu X, Li X, Li Y, Zhao L, Chen Z, Li Y, Rao X, Zhou B, Detrano R, Liu K. Estimation of 10-year risk of fatal and nonfatal ischemic cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults. Circulation. 2006;114:2217-2225.
8. Barzi F, Patel A, Gu D, Sritara P, Lam TH, Rodgers A, Woodward M. Cardiovascular risk prediction tools for populations in Asia. J Epidemiol Commun Health. 2007;61:115-121.
9. Leeder S, Raymond S, Greenberg H, Liu H, Esson K. Race Against Time: The Challenge of Cardiovascular Disease in Developing Countries. New York, NY: Columbia University Center for Global Health and Economic Development; 2004.
10. Cheng J, Zhao D, Zeng Z, Critchley JA, Liu J, Wang W, Sun J, Capewell S. The impact of demographic and risk factor changes on coronary heart disease deaths in Beijing, 1999-2010. BMC Public Health. 2009;9:30.
11. Moran A, Zhao D, Gu D, Coxson P, Chen CS, Cheng J, Liu J, He J, Goldman L. The future impact of population growth and aging on coronary heart disease in China: projections from the coronary heart disease policy model-China. BMC Public Health. 2008;8:394.
12. He J, Neal B, Gu D, Suriyawongpaisal P, Xin X, Reynolds R, MacMahon S, Whelton PK. International collaborative study of cardiovascular disease in Asia: design, rationale, and preliminary results. Ethn Dis. 2004;14:260-268.
13. Zhao D, Liu J, Wang W, Zeng Z, Cheng J, Liu J, Sun J, Wu Z. Epidemiological transition of stroke in China: twenty-one-year observational study from the Sino-MONICA-Beijing Project. Stroke. 2008;39:1668-1674.
14. Gu D, Kelly TN, Wu X, Chen J, Duan X, Huang JF, Chen JC, Whelton PK, He J. Blood pressure and risk of cardiovascular disease in Chinese men and women. Am J Hypertens. 2008;21:265-272. (Pubitemid 351323273)
15. He J, Gu D, Wu X, Reynolds K, Duan X, Yao C, Wang J, Chen CS, Chen J, Wildman RP, Klag MJ, Whelton PK. Major causes of death among men and women in China. N Engl J Med. 2005;353:1124-1134.
16. Stevens J, Truesdale KP, Katz EG, Cai J. Impact of body mass index on incident hypertension and diabetes in Chinese Asians, American Whites, and American Blacks: the People's Republic of China Study and the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Am J Epidemiol. 2008;167:1365-1374.
17. China Health and Nutrition Survey. [cited 2007 October 31]; Available at: https://www.cpc.unc.edu/projects/china.
18. Health, United States, 2008. [cited 2009 November 12]; Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus.htm.
19. Liu S, Zhao D, Wang W, Liu J, Qin L, Zeng Z, Wu Z. The trends of cardiovascular risk factors in urban and rural areas of Beijing during 1984-1999. J Cardiovasc Pulmon Dis. 2006;25:129-134.
20. Li Z, Yang R, Xu G, Xia T. Serum lipid concentrations and prevalence of dyslipidemia in a large professional population in Beijing. Clin Chem. 2005;51:144-150.
21. World Health Organization. Global Infobase. [cited 2008 November]. Available at: http://www.who.int/infobase/report.aspx.
22. Gu D, Reynolds K, Duan X, Xin X, Chen J, Wu X, Mo J, Whelton PK, He J. Prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in the Chinese adult population: International Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Disease in Asia (InterASIA). Diabetologia. 2003;46:1190-1198.
23. Pan XR, Yang WY, Li GW, Liu J. Prevalence of diabetes and its risk factors in China, 1994. National Diabetes Prevention and Control Cooperative Group. Diabetes Care. 1997;20:1664-1669.
24. Wang KLT, Xiang H. Study on the epidemiology characteristics of diabetes mellitus and IGT in China. Chin J Epidemiol. 1998;19:282-285.
25. International Diabetes Federation. Diabetes Atlas. 2nd edition. [cited 2009 February]. Available at: http://www.eatlas.idf.org/webdata/docs/ Atlas%202003-Summary.pdf.
26. Qiao Q, Hu G, Tuomilehto J, Nakagami T, Balkau B, Borch-Johnsen K, Ramachandran A, Mohan V, Iyer SR, Tominaga M, Kiyohara Y, Kato I, Okubo K, Nagai M, Shibazaki S, Yang Z, Tong Z, Fan Q, Wang B, Chew SK, Tan BY, Heng D, Emmanuel S, Tajima N, Iwamoto Y, Snehalatha C, Vijay V, Kapur A, Dong Y, Nan H, Gao W, Shi H, Fu F. Age- and sex-specific prevalence of diabetes and impaired glucose regulation in 11 Asian cohorts. Diabetes Care. 2003;26:1770-1780. (Pubitemid 36929118)
27. Wang Y, Beydoun MA. The obesity epidemic in the United States: gender, age, socioeconomic, racial/ethnic, and geographic characteristics: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. Epidemiol Rev. 2007;29:6-28.
28. Ezzati M, Hoorn SV, Rodgers A, Lopez AD, Mathers CD, Murray CJ. Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors. Lancet. 2003;362:271-280.
29. Gu D, He J, Duan X, Reynolds K, Wu X, Chen J, Huang G, Chen CS, Whelton PK. Body weight and mortality among men and women in China. JAMA. 2006;295:776-783.
30. Chen Z, Peto R, Collins R, MacMahon S, Lu J, Li W. Serum cholesterol concentration and coronary heart disease in population with low cholesterol concentrations. BMJ (Clin Res Ed). 1991;303:276-282.
31. Eastern Stroke and Coronary Heart Disease Collaborative Research Group. Blood pressure, cholesterol, and stroke in eastern Asia. Lancet. 1998;352:1801-1807.
32. He FJ, MacGregor GA. How far should salt intake be reduced? Hypertension. 2003;42:1093-1099.
33. Vaccarino V, Krumholz HM, Yarzebski J, Gore JM, Goldberg RJ. Sex differences in 2-year mortality after hospital discharge for myocardial infarction. Ann Intern Med. 2001;134:173-181.
34. Rosamond WD, Folsom AR, Chambless LE, Wang CH, McGovern PG, Howard G, Copper LS, Shahar E. Stroke incidence and survival among middle-aged adults: 9-year follow-up of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort. Stroke. 1999;30:736-743.
35. International Database, US Census Bureau. 2006 [cited 2007 May 17]. Available at: http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html.
36. Zhai F, Wang H, Wang Z, Popkin BM, Chen C. Closing the energy gap to prevent weight gain in China. Obes Rev. 2008;(Suppl 1):107-112.
37. He J, Gu D, Reynolds K, Wu X, Muntner P, Zhao J, Chen J, Liu D, Mo J, Whelton PK. Serum total and lipoprotein cholesterol levels and awareness, treatment, and control of hypercholesterolemia in China. Circulation. 2004;110:405-411.
38. Gu D, Reynolds K, Wu X, Chen J, Duan X, Muntner P, Huang G, Reynolds RF, Su S, Whelton PK, He J. Prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension in China. Hypertension. 2002;40:920-927.
39. Davi G, Guagnano MT, Ciabattoni G, Basili S, Falco A, Marinopiccoli M, Nutini M, Sensi S, Patrono C. Platelet activation in obese women: role of inflammation and oxidant stress. JAMA. 2002;288:2008-2014.
40. Rosito GA, D'Agostino RB, Massaro J, Lipinska I, Mittleman MA, Sutherland P, Wilson PW, Levy D, Muller JE, Tofler GH. Association between obesity and a prothrombotic state: the Framingham Offspring Study. Thromb Haemost. 2004;91:683-689.
41. Koch R, Sharma AM. Obesity and cardiovascular hemodynamic function. Curr Hypertens Rep. 1999;1:127-130.
42. Hu TW, Mao Z. Effects of cigarette tax on cigarette consumption and the Chinese economy. Tob Control. 2002;11:105-108.
43. Iso H. Changes in coronary heart disease risk among Japanese. Circulation. 2008;118:2725-279.
44. Mathers CD, Loncar D. Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med. 2006;3:e442.
45. Lawes CM, Parag V, Bennett DA, Suh I, Lam TH, Whitlock G, Barzi F, Woodward M. Blood glucose and risk of cardiovascular disease in the Asia Pacific region. Diabetes Care. 2004;27:2836-2842.
46. Critchley J, Liu J, Zhao D, Wei W, Capewell S. Explaining the increase in coronary heart disease mortality in Beijing between 1984 and 1999. Circulation. 2004;110:1236-1244. (Pubitemid 39202339)
47. Qin X, Jackson R, Marshall R, Lee L, Cao W, Zhan S, Hu Y. Modelling the potential impact of population-wide and targeted high-risk blood pressure-lowering strategies on cardiovascular disease in China. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil. 2009;16:96-101.
48. Wolf PA, D'Agostino RB, Belanger AJ, Kannel WB. Probability of stroke: a risk profile from the Framingham Study. Stroke. 1991;22:312-318.
49. Puska P, Tuomilehto J, Salonen J, Neittaanmaki L, Maki J, Virtamo J, Nissinen A, Koskela K, Takalo T. Changes in coronary risk factors during comprehensive five-year community programme to control cardiovascular diseases (North Karelia project). BMJ. 1979;2:1173-1178. (Pubitemid 10202038)