Climate change and geomorphological hazards in the eastern European Alps

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences

Volumn 368, Issue 1919, 2010, Pages 2461-2479

  Keiler, Margreth ^a,c   Knight, Jasper ^b   Harrison, Stephan ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA   (Austria)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^c DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Hazards; Paraglacial; Risk management

Indexed keywords

DEBRIS; FLOODS; FORESTRY; GLOBAL WARMING; RISK MANAGEMENT; ROCK BURSTS;

ALPINE REGIONS; ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING; DEBRIS FLOWS; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; EUROPEAN ALPS; HAZARD MANAGEMENT; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; INTERLINKAGES; MOUNTAIN HAZARD; MOUNTAIN REGIONS; PARAGLACIAL; PHYSICAL PROCESS; ROCKFALLS; SOCIO-ECONOMICS; SURFACE STABILITY;

LANDFORMS;

EID: 77953009875     PISSN: 1364503X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0047     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (86)

1. Agrawala, S. (ed.) 2007 Climate change in the European Alps. Adapting winter tourism, and natural hazards management. Paris, France: OECD.
2. Alexander, D. 2000 Confronting catastrophe. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
3. Allan, R. P. and Soden, B. J. 2007 Large discrepancy between observed and simulated precipitation trends in the ascending and descending branches of the tropical circulation. Geophy. Res. Lett. 34, L18705. (doi:10.1029/2007GL031460)
4. Amt der Vorarlberger Landesregierung. (eds) 2005 Starkregen- und Hochwasserereignis August 2005 in Vorarlberg. Vorarlberger Landesregierung, Bregenz.
5. Auer, I. et al. 2005 A new instrumental precipitation dataset in the greater alpine region for the period 1800-2002. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 139-166. (doi:10.1002/joc.1135) (Pubitemid 40294921)
6. Auer, I. et al. 2007 HISTALP-historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the greater Alpine region 1760-2003. Int. J. Climatol. 27, 17-46. (doi:10.1002/joc.1377)
7. Baggi, S. and Schweizer, J. 2009 Characteristics of wet-snow avalanche activity: 20 years of observations from a high alpine valley (Dischma, Switzerland). Nat. Haz. 50, 97-108. (doi:10.1007/s11069-008-9322-7)
8. Ballantyne, C. K. 2002 A general model of paraglacial landscape response. The Holocene 12, 371-376. (doi:10.1191/0959683602hl553fa)
9. Bartolini, E., Claps, P. and D'Odorico, P. 2009 Interannual variability of winter precipitation in the European Alps: relations with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 13, 17-25.
10. Bätzing, W. 1993 Der soziö-dkonomische Strukturwandel des Alpenraums im 20. Jahrhunder,p. 26. Bern, Switzerland: Geographica Bernensia.
11. Bätzing, W. 2003 Die Alpen: geschichte und Zukunft einer europaischen Kulturlandschaft. Mtinchen, Germany: C.H. Beck.
12. Beniston, M. 2004 The 2003 heat wave in Europe: a shape of things to come? An analysis based on Swiss climatological data and model simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L02202. (doi:10.1029/ 2003GL018857)
13. Beniston, M. 2006 August 2005 intense rainfall event in Switzerland: not necessarily an analog for strong convective events in a greenhouse climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L05701. (doi:10.1029/2005GL025573)
14. Beniston, M. and Jungo, P. 2002 Shifts in the distributions of pressure, temperature and moisture and changes in the typical weather patterns in the Alpine region in response to the behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 71, 29-42. (doi:10.1007/S704-002-820r6-7)
15. Beniston, M., Keller, F. and Goyette, S. 2003 Snow pack in the Swiss Alps under changing climatic conditions: an empirical approach for climate impacts studies. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 74, 19-31. (doi:10.1007/s00704-002-0709-1)
16. Beniston, M. et al. 2007 Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim. Change 81, 71-95. (doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z)
17. Black, E., Blackburn, M., Harrison, G., Hoskins, B. and Methven, J. 2004 Factors contributing to the summer 2003 European heatwave. Weather 59, 217-223. (doi:10.1256/wea.74.04)
18. BMLFUW (Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management, Austria). (eds) 2006a Hochwasser 2005 - Ereignisdokumentation, Teilbericht des Hydrographischen Dienstes. Vienna, Austria. (http://wasser.lebensministerium.at/ article/articleview/76082/1/6380/)
19. BMLFUW (Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management, Austria). (eds) 20066 Hochwasser 2005 - Ereignisdokumentation, Teilbericht der Wildbach- und Lawinenverbauung. Vienna, Austria. (http://www.forstnet.at/ articleview/48675/1/14297)
20. Brunetti, M., Lentini, G., Maugeri, M., Nanni, T., Auer, I., Bohm, R. and Schoner, W. 2009 Climate variability and change in the Greater Alpine Region over the last two centuries based on multivariable analysis. Int. J. Climatol. 29, 2197-2225. (doi:10.1002/joc.1857)
21. Btintgen, U., Frank, D. C., Nievergelt, D. and Esper, J. 2006 Summer temperature variations in the European Alps: AD 755-2004. J. Clim. 19, 5606-5623. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3917.1)
22. Calanca, P., Roesch, A., Jasper, K. & Wild, M. 2006 Global warming and the summertime evapotranspiration regime of the Alpine region. Clim. Change 79, 65-78. (doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9103-9)
23. Carter, W. (ed.) 1991 The disaster management cycle. Disaster management: a disaster manager's handbook, pp. 51-59. Manila, Philippines: Asian Development Bank.
24. Casty, C., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., Esper, J. & Bohm, R. 2005 Temperature and precipitation variability in the European Alps since 1500. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1855-1880. (droi:10.1002/joc.1216) (Pubitemid 41694324)
25. CFG (Commission for Glaciology). 2009 Current data collection for the mass balance determination of the Vernagtferner 1964 to 2008. Bavarian Academy of Sciences and Humanities (available from http://www.lrz-muenchen.de/-a2901ad/ webserver/webdata/massbal/index.html).
26. Church, M. and Ryder, J. M. 1972 Paraglacial sedimentation: a consideration of fluvial processes conditioned by glaciation. Bull. Geol. Soc. America 83, 3059-3071. (doi:10.1130/001r6- 7606(1972)83[3059:PSACOF]2.0.CO;2)
27. Damm, B. 2007 Temporal variations of mountain permafrost creep: examples from the Eastern European Alps. In Geomorphology for the future (eds A. Kellerer-Pirklbauer, M. Keiler, C. Embleton-Hamann and J. Stotter). Innsbruck, Austria: Innsbruck University Press.
28. Déqué, M., Rowell, D. P., Luthi, D., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J. H., Rockel, B., Jacob, D., Kjellström, E., de Castro, M. and van den Hurk, B. 2007 An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Clim. Change 81, 53-70.
29. Fennessy, M. J. and Kinter III, J. L. 2009 Climatic Feedbacks during the 2003 European Heatwave. COLA Technical Report no. 282, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD, USA.
30. Fischer, L., Kääb, A., Huggel, C. and Noetzli, J. 2006 Geology, glacier retreat and permafrost degradation as controlling factors of slope instabilities in a high-mountain rock wall: the Monte Rosa east face. Nat. Haz. Earth Syst. Sci. 6, 761-772.
31. Fischer, E. M., Seneviratne, S. I., Luthi, D. and Schär, C. 2007 Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L06707. (doi:10.1029/2006GL029068)
32. Frei, C. 2006 Eine Länder übergreifende Niederschlagsanalyse zum August Hochwasser 2005. Ergänzung zu Arbeitsbericht 211. Arbeitsberichte der MeteoSchweiz, 213.
33. Frei, C. and Schär, C. 1998 A precipitation climatology of the Alps from high-resolution rain-gauge observations. Int. J. Climatol. 18, 873-900. (dori:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980630) 18:8%3C873::AID-JOC255%3E3.0.CO;2-9)
34. Frei, C., Schöll, R., Fukutome, S., Schmidli, J. and Vidale, P. L. 2005 Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: an intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D06105. (doi:10.1029/2005JD005965)
35. Fuchs, S. 2009 Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria-paradigms of vulnerability revisited. Nat. Haz. Earth Syst Sci. 9, 337-352
36. Fuchs, S. and Brundl, M. 2005 Damage potential and losses resulting from snow avalanches in settlements in the Canton of Grisons, Switzerland. Nat. Haz. 34, 53-69. (doi:10.1007/s11069-004-0784-y)
37. Gehrig-Fasel, J., Guisan, A. and Zimmermann, N. E. 2007 Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: climate change or land abandonment? J. Vegetation Sci. 18, 571-582. (doi:10.1111/j.1654-1103.2007.tb02571.x)
38. Gómez, F. and Souissi, S. 2008 The impact of the 2003 summer heat wave and the 2005 late cold wave on the phytoplankton in the north-eastern English Channel. C. R. Biologies 331, 678-685. (doi:10.1016/j.crvi.2008.06.005)
39. Gruber, S., Hoelzle, M. and Haeberli, W. 2004 Permafrost thaw and destabilization of Alpine rock walls in the hot summer of 2003. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L13504. (doi:10.1029/2004GL020051)
40. Gude, M. and Barsch, D. 2005 Assessment of geomorphic hazards in connection with permafrost occurrence in the Zugspitze area (Bavarian Alps, Germany). Geomorphology 66, 85-93. (doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2004.03.013)
41. Haeberli, W. 1975 Untersuchungen zur Verbreitung von Permafrost zwischen Fluelapass und Piz Grialetsch (Graubünden). Mitteilungen der Versuchsanstalt fur Wasserbau, Hydrologie und Glaziologie, no. 17. Zurich, Switzerland: Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule Zurich.
42. Haeberli, W., Hoelzle, M., Paul, F. and Zemp, M. 2007 Integrated monitoring of mountain glaciers as key indicators of global climate change: the European Alps. Ann. Glaciol. 46, 150-160. (doi:10.3189/172756407782871512)
43. Harris, C., Vonder Muhll, D., Isaksen, K., Haeberli, W., Sollid, J. L., King, L., Holmlund, P., Dramis, F., Guglielmin, M. and Palacios, D. 2003 Warming permafrost in European mountains. Global Planet. Change 39, 215-225. (doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2003.04.001)
44. Harris, C. et al. 2009 Permafrost and climate in Europe: monitoring and modelling thermal, geomorphological and geotechnical responses. Earth-Sci. Rev. 92, 117-171. (doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2008.12.002)
45. Hilker, N., Hegg, C. and Zappa, M. 2008 Flood and landslide caused damage in Switzerland 1972-2007: with special consideration of the flood in August 2005. In Interpraevent 2008 Conf. Proc., vol. 1, pp. 99-110. (http://www.interpraevent.at/palm-cms/upload-files/Publikationen/ Tagungsbeitraege/2008-1-121.pdf)
46. Hilker, N., Badoux, A. and Hegg, C. 2009 The Swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972-2007. Nat. Haz. Earth Syst. Sci. 9, 913-925.
47. Holub, M. and Fuchs, S. 2009 Mitigating mountain hazards in Austria-legislation, risk transfer, and awareness building. Nat. Haz. Earth Syst. Sci. 9, 523-537.
48. Huss, M., Bauder, A., Funk, M. and Hock, R. 2008 Determination of seasonal mass balance of four Alpine glaciers since 1865. J. Geophys. Res. 113, F01015. (doi:10.1029/2007JF000803)
49. Internationale Forschungsgesellschaft Interpraevent. 2009 Alpine Naturkatastrophen: Lawinen Muren Felssturze Hochwässer. Graz, Austria: Stocker.
50. Kääb, A. 2008 Remote sensing of permafrost-related problems and hazards. Permafr. Perigl. Proc. 19, 107-136. (doi:10.1002/ppp.619)
51. Keiler, M. 2004 Development of the damage potential resulting from avalanche risk in the period 1950-2000, case study Galtur. Nat. Haz. Earth Syst. Sci. 4, 249-256.
52. Keiler, M., Zischg, A., Fuchs, S., Hama, M. and Stotter, J. 2005 Avalanche related damage potential-changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtur. Nat. Haz. Earth Syst. Sci. 5, 49-58.
53. Kellerer-Pirklbauer, A., Lieb, G. K., Avian, M. and Gspurning, J. 2008 The response of partially debris-covered valley glaciers to climate change: the example of the Pasterze Glacier (Austria) in the period 1964 to 2006. Geogr. Annaler 90A, 269-285. (doi:10.1111/j.1468-0459.2008.00345.x)
54. Kienholz, H., Krummenacher, B., Kipfer, A. and Perret, S. 2004 Aspects of integral risk management in practice-considerations with respect to mountain hazards in Switzerland. Öster-reichische Wasser- und Abfallwirtschaft 56, 43-50.
55. Knight, J. and Harrison, S. 2009 Sediments and future climate. Nat. Geosci. 2, 230. (doi:10.1038/ngeo491)
56. Koboltschnig, G. R., Schöner, W., Holzmann, H. and Zappa, M. 2009 Glaciermelt of a small basin contributing to runoff under the extreme climate conditions in the summer of 2003. Hydrol. Proc. 23, 1010-1018. (doi:10.1002/hyp.7203)
57. Lambrecht, A. and Kuhn, M. 2007 Glacier changes in the Austrian Alps during the last three decades, derived from the new Austrian glacier inventory. Ann. Glaciol. 46, 177-184. (doi:10.3189/172756407782871341)
58. Laternser, M. and Schneebeli, M. 2003 Long-term snow climate trends of the Swiss Alps (1931-99). Int. J. Climatol. 23, 733-750. (doi:10.1002/joc.912)
59. Lieb, G. K. 1998 High-mountain permafrost in the Austrian Alps (Europe). In 7th Int. Conf. on Permafrost Proc. (eds A. G. Lewkowicz and M. Allard), pp. 663-668. Collection Nordicana, no. 57. Yellowknife, Canada: Centre d'Etudes Nordiques, Universite Laval.
60. Lionello, P., Boldrin, U. and Giorgi, F. 2008 Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation. Clim. Dyn. 30, 657-671. (doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0315-0)
61. Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Beniston, M. and García-Ruiz, J. M. 2008 Environmental change and water management in the Pyrenees: facts and future perspectives for Mediterranean mountains. Global Planet. Change 61, 300-312. (doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.10.004)
62. Luetschg, M., Lehning, M. and Haeberli, W. 2008 A sensitivity study of factors influencing warm/thin permafrost in the Swiss Alps. J. Glaciol. 54, 696-704. (doi:10.3189/002214308786570881)
63. Luterbacher, J., Dietrich, D., Xoplaki, E., Grosjean, M. and Wanner, H. 2004 European seasonal and annual temperature variability, trends, and extremes since 1500. Science 303, 1499-1503. (doi:10.1126/science.1093877)
64. Nemec, J., Huybrechts, P., Rybak, O. and Oerlemans, J. 2009 Reconstruction of the annual balance of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since 1865. Ann. Glaciol. 50, 126-134. (doi:10.3189/172756409787769609)
65. North, N., Kljun, N., Kasser, F., Heldstab, J., Maibach, M., Reutimann, J. and Guyer, M. 2007 Klimaanderung in der Schweiz. Indikatoren zu Ursachen, Auswirkungen, Massnahmen. Umwelt- Zustand Nr. 0728. Bundesamt fur Umwelt, Bern.
66. Nötzli, J., Gruber, S. and Hoelzle, M. 2004 Permafrost und Felssturze im Hitzesommer 2003. GEOforum actuel, vol. 20, pp. 11-14.
67. Patzelt, G. 2004 Gletscherbericht 2002/2003. Mitteilungen des Österreichischen Alpenvereins 59, 8-15.
68. Paul, F., Kääb, A., Maisch, M., Kellenberger, T. and Haeberli, W. 2004 Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L21402. (doi:10.1029/2004GL020816)
69. Paul, F., Machguth, H. and Kääb, A. 2005 On the impact of glacier albedo under conditions of extreme glacier melt: the summer of 2003 in the Alps. EARSeL eProceedings 4, 139-149.
70. Rebetez, M., Dupont, O. and Giroud, M. 2008 An analysis of the July 2006 heatwave extent in Europe compared to the record year of 2003. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 95, 1-7. (doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0370-9)
71. Reichler, T. and Kim, J. 2008 How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? BAMS 89, 303-311. (doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-303)
72. Rickenmann, D., Hunzinger, L. and Koschni, A. 2008 Flood events and sediment transport during the rainstorm of August 2005 in Switzerland. In Interpraevent 2008 Conf. Proc., vol. 1, pp. 465-476.
73. Schär, C. and Jendritzky, G. 2004 Climate change: hot news from summer 2003. Nature 432, 559-560. (doi:10.1038/432559a)
74. Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M. A. and Appenzeller, C. 2004 The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427, 332-335. (doi:10.1038/nature02300)
75. Schmidli, J. and Frei, C. 2005 Trends of heavy precipitation and wet and dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th century. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 753-771. (doi:10.1002/joc.1179)
76. Slaymaker, O. 2009 Proglacial, periglacial or paraglacial? In Periglacial and paraglacial processes and environments (eds J. Knight and S. Harrison). Special Publications, no. 320, pp. 71-84. London, UK: Geological Society.
77. Slaymaker, O. and Embleton-Hamann, C. 2009 Mountains. In Geomorphology and global environmental change (eds O. Slaymaker, T. Spencer and C. Embleton-Hamann), pp. 37-70. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
78. SLF. (ed.) 2000 Der Lawinenwinter 1999. Davos, Switzerland: SLF (Eidgenossisches Institut für Schnee- und Lawinenforschung).
79. Steiner, D., Pauling, A., Nussbaumer, S. U., Nesje, A., Luterbacher, J., Wanner, H. and Zumbühl, H. J. 2008 Sensitivity of European glaciers to precipitation and temperature-two case studies. Clim. Change 90, 413-441. (doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9393-1)
80. Stoffel, M. and Beniston, M. 2006 On the incidence of debris flows from the early Little Ice Age to a future greenhouse climate: a case study from the Swiss Alps. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L16404. (doi:10.1029/2006GL026805)
81. Stoffel, M., Bollschweiler, M., Leutwiler, A. and Aeby, P. 2008 Tree-ring reconstruction of debris- flow events leading to overbank sedimentation on the Illgraben Cone (Valais Alps, Switzerland). Open Geol. J. 2, 18-29. (doi:10.2174/1874262900802010018)
82. Vanham, D., Fleischhacker, E. and Rauch, W. 2008 Seasonality in alpine water resources management-a regional assessment. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 12, 91-100.
83. Vavrus, S. 2007 The role of terrestrial snow cover in the climate system. Clim. Dyn. 29, 73-88. (doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0226-0)
84. Wanner, H., Grosjean, M., Röthlisberger, R. and Xoplaki, E. 2006 Climate variability, predictability and climate risks: a European perspective. Clim. Change 79, 1-7. (doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9155-x)
85. Zappa, M. and Kan, C. 2007 Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps. Nat. Haz. Earth Syst. Sci. 7, 375-389.
86. Zemp, M., Haeberli, W., Hoelzle, M. and Paul, F. 2006 Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades? Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L13504. (doi:10.1029/ 2006GL026319)