Using probabilistic models to investigate the disappearance of a widespread frog-species complex in high-altitude regions of south-eastern Australia

Animal Conservation

Volumn 13, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 275-285

  Hamer, A J ^a   Lane, S J ^a,b   Mahony, M J ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Amphibian decline; Distribution; Extinction; Rediscovery; Sighting record; Solow equation

Indexed keywords

EXTINCTION; FROG; FUNGAL DISEASE; MODELING; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; PROBABILITY;

AUSTRALIA; GREAT DIVIDING RANGE;

AMPHIBIA; ANURA; BATRACHOCHYTRIUM DENDROBATIDIS; CASTANEA; FUNGI; LITORIA; LITORIA AUREA; LITORIA RANIFORMIS;

EID: 77952838787     PISSN: 13679430     EISSN: 14691795     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-1795.2009.00335.x     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Bell BD, Carver S, Mitchell NJ, Pledger S. The recent decline of a New Zealand endemic: how and why did populations of Archey's frog Leiopelma archeyi crash over 1996-2001? Biol. Conserv. 2004, 120:189-199.
2. Bosch J, Carrascal LM, Durán L, Walker S, Fisher MC. Climate change and outbreaks of amphibian chytridiomycosis in a montane area of Central Spain is there a link? Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. Ser. B. 2007, 274:253-260.
3. Burgman MA, Grimson RC, Ferson S. Inferring threat from scientific collections. Conserv. Biol. 1995, 9:923-928.
4. Burns EL, Eldridge MDB, Houlden BA. Microsatellite variation and population structure in a declining Australian Hylid Litoria aurea. Mol. Ecol. 2004, 13:1745-1757.
5. Cogger HG, Cameron EE, Cogger HM. Zoological catalogue of Australia. Volume 1. Amphibia and reptilia 1983, Canberra, Australian Government Publishing Service
6. Collins JP, Storfer A. Global amphibian declines: sorting the hypotheses. Divers. Distrib. 2003, 9:89-98.
7. Cooke P. Optimal linear estimation of bounds of random variables. Biometrika 1980, 67:257-258.
8. Courtice GP, Grigg GC. A taxonomic revision of the Litoria aurea complex (Anura: Hylidae) in south-eastern Australia. Aust. Zool. 1975, 18:149-163.
9. Daszak P, Berger L, Cunningham AA, Hyatt AD, Green DE, Speare R. Emerging infectious diseases and amphibian population declines. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 1999, 5:735-748.
10. Daszak P, Cunningham AA, Hyatt AD. Infectious disease and amphibian population declines. Divers. Distrib. 2003, 9:141-150.
11. Daszak P, Strieby A, Cunningham AA, Longcore JE, Brown CC, Porter D. Experimental evidence that the bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana) is a potential carrier of chytridiomycosis, an emerging fungal disease of amphibians. Herpetol. J. 2004, 14:201-207.
12. Ehmann H. Overview chapter. Threatened frogs of New South Wales: habitats, status and conservation 1996, 12-39. Ehmann H. In, (Ed.), Sydney, Frog and Tadpole Study Group of NSW Inc
13. Ehmann H, White AW. Southern bell frog. Threatened frogs of New South Wales: habitats, status and conservation 1996, 195-202. Ehmann H, In, (Ed.), Sydney, Frog and Tadpole Study Group of NSW Inc
14. Revision of the Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia (IBRA) and the development of version 5.1: summary report 2000, Environment Australia., Canberra, Department of Environment and Heritage
15. Amphibian conservation action plan 2007, Gascon CCollins JPMoore RDChurch DRMcKay JEMendelson JR. (Eds), Gland and Cambridge, IUCN/SSC Amphibian Specialist Group
16. Heyer WR, Donnelly MA, McDiarmid RW, Hayek LC, Foster MS. Measuring and monitoring biological diversity. Standard methods for amphibians 1994, Washington, Smithsonian Institution Press
17. Humphries RB. 1979, PhD thesis, Australian National University, Canberra
18. IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Version 3.1. IUCN Species Survival Commission 2001, http://www.iucnredlist.org/technical-documents/categories-and-criteria/2001-categories-criteria, IUCN., Gland, IUCN, Available at, (accessed 27 August 2009)
19. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2009.1 2009, http://www.iucnredlist.org, IUCN., Gland, IUCN, Available at, (accessed 27 August 2009)
20. An analysis of mammals on the 2008 IUCN Red List 2008, http://www.iucnredlist.org/mammals, IUCN, Conservation International, Arizona State University, Texas A&M University, University of Rome, University of Virginia, Zoological Society London., Gland, IUCN, Available at, (accessed 27 August 2009)
21. Kriger KM, Hero J-M. Altitudinal distribution of chytrid (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) infection in subtropical Australian frogs. Aust. Ecol. 2008, 33:1022-1032.
22. Laurance WF. Global warming and amphibian extinctions in eastern Australia. Aust. Ecol. 2008, 33:1-9.
23. Laurance WF, McDonald KR, Speare R. Epidemic disease and the catastrophic decline of Australian rain forest frogs. Conserv. Biol. 1996, 10:406-413.
24. Lips KR. Decline of a tropical montane amphibian fauna. Conserv. Biol. 1998, 12:106-117.
25. Mahony M. The decline of the green and golden bell frog Litoria aurea viewed in the context of declines and disappearances of other Australian frogs. Aust. Zool. 1996, 30:237-247.
26. Mahony M, Lane S, Hamer A, Browne R. 2000, Survey for in the Orange area. Prepared for NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, Western Region, Dubbo. Callaghan: The University of Newcastle
27. Mahony MJ. A review of the declines and disappearances within the bell frog species group (Litoria aurea species group) in Australia. Declines and disappearances of Australian frogs 1999, 81-93. Campbell A. In, (Ed.), Canberra, Environment Australia
28. Mazzoni R, Cunningham AA, Daszak P, Apolo A, Perdomo E, Speranza G. Emerging pathogen of wild amphibians in frogs (Rana catesbeiana) farmed for international trade. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2003, 9:995-998.
29. McCarthy MA. Identifying declining and threatened species with museum data. Biol. Conserv. 1998, 83:9-17.
30. McCarthy MA. Bayesian methods for ecology 2007, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press
31. McInerny GJ, Roberts DL, Davy AJ, Cribb PJ. Significance of sighting rate in inferring extinction and threat. Conserv. Biol. 2006, 20:562-567.
32. Morehouse EA, James TY, Ganley ARD, Vilgalys R, Berger L, Murphy PJ, Longcore JE. Multilocus sequence typing suggests the chytrid pathogen of amphibians is a recently emerged clone. Mol. Ecol. 2003, 12:395-403.
33. Yellow-spotted bell frog (Litoria castanea) and peppered tree frog (Litoria piperata) recovery plan 2001, NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service., Hurstville, National Parks and Wildlife Service
34. Osborne W, Patmore S, Hunter D, Pietsch R. Preliminary observations on a highly-restricted tableland population of green and golden bell frogs on the Upper Molonglo River, NSW. Aust. Zool. 2008, 34:271-284.
35. Osborne WS, Littlejohn MJ, Thomson SA. Former distribution and apparent disappearance of the Litoria aurea complex from the Southern Tablelands of New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. Aust. Zool. 1996, 30:190-198.
36. Patmore SR. 2001, , Litoria aurea (Anura: Hylidae) Bachelor of Applied Science Honours thesis, School of Resource, Environmental and Heritage Sciences, University of Canberra, Canberra
37. Picco AM, Collins JP. Amphibian commerce as a likely source of pathogen pollution. Conserv. Biol. 2008, 22:1582-1589.
38. Pounds JA, Bustamante MR, Coloma LA, Consuegra JA, Fogden MPL, Foster PN, La Marca E, Masters KL, Merino-Viteri A, Puschendorf R, Ron SR, Sánchez-Azofeifa GA, Still CJ, Young BE. Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature 2006, 439:161-167.
39. Rachowicz LJ, Hero J-M, Alford RA, Taylor JW, Morgan JAT, Vredenburg VT, Collins JP, Briggs CJ. The novel and endemic pathogen hypotheses: competing explanations for the origin of emerging infectious diseases of wildlife. Conserv. Biol. 2005, 19:1441-1448.
40. Rivadeneira MM, Hunt G, Roy K. The use of sighting records to infer species extinctions: an evaluation of different methods. Ecology 2009, 90:1291-1300.
41. Roberts DL, Solow AR. Flightless birds: when did the dodo become extinct? Nature 2003, 426:245-245.
42. Skelly DK, Yurewicz KL, Werner EE, Relyea RA. Estimating decline and distributional change in amphibians. Conserv. Biol. 2003, 17:744-751.
43. Solow AR. Inferring extinction from sighting data. Ecology 1993a, 74:962-964.
44. Solow AR. Inferring extinction in a declining population. J. Math. Biol. 1993b, 32:79-82.
45. Solow AR, Kitchener AC, Roberts DL, Birks JDS. Rediscovery of the Scottish polecat, Mustela putorius: survival or reintroduction? Biol. Conserv. 2006, 128:574-575.
46. Solow AR, Roberts DL. A nonparametric test for extinction based on a sighting record. Ecology 2003, 84:1329-1332.
47. Solow AR, Smith W. How surprising is a new record? Am. Stat. 2005, 59:153-155.
48. Stuart SN, Chanson JS, Cox NA, Young BE, Rodrigues ASL, Fischman DL, Waller RW. Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide. Science 2004, 306:1783-1786.
49. Thomson SA, Littlejohn MJ, Robinson WA, Osborne WS. Taxonomy of the Litoria aurea complex: a re-evaluation of the Southern Tableland populations of the Australian Capital Territory and New South Wales. Aust. Zool. 1996, 30:158-169.
50. Threlfall CG, Jolley DF, Evershed N, Goldingay RL, Buttemer WA. Do green and golden bell frogs Litoria aurea occupy habitats with fungicidal properties? Aust. Zool. 2008, 34:350-360.
51. Wassens S. Review of the past distribution and decline of the southern bell frog Litoria raniformis in New South Wales. Aust. Zool. 2008, 34:446-452.
52. Wassens S, Mullins BJD. Rediscovery of a green and golden bell frog population in the Southern Tablelands. Herpetofauna 2001, 31:58-63.
53. Wasson RJ, Mazari RK, Starr B, Clifton G. The recent history of erosion and sedimentation on the Southern Tablelands of southeastern Australia: sediment flux dominated by channel incision. Geomorphology 1998, 24:291-308.
54. Weldon C, du Preez LH, Hyatt AD, Muller R, Speare R. Origin of the amphibian chytrid fungus. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2004, 10:2100-2105.
55. White AW. Green and golden bell frog. Threatened frogs of New South Wales: habitats, status and conservation 1996, 149-156. Ehmann H. In, (Ed.), Sydney, Frog and Tadpole Study Group of NSW Inc
56. White AW, Ehmann H. New England bell frog. Threatened frogs of New South Wales: habitats, status and conservation 1996a, 165-170. Ehmann H, In, (Ed.), Sydney, Frog and Tadpole Study Group of NSW Inc
57. White AW, Ehmann H. Southern highlands bell frog. Threatened frogs of New South Wales: habitats, status and conservation 1996b, 171-176. Ehmann H, In, (Ed.), Sydney, Frog and Tadpole Study Group of NSW Inc
58. White AW, Pyke GH. Past distribution of Litoria aurea and Litoria castanea in the Bathurst-Orange area of New South Wales. Herpetofauna 1999, 29:2-9.