Perturbation of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes

Journal of Seismology

Volumn 14, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 67-77

  Console, R ^a   Murru, M ^a   Falcone, G ^a,b  

^a ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MESSINA   (Italy)

Author keywords

Assessment of the occurrence probability of future shocks in Italy; Brownian passage time; Rate and state; Static Coulomb stress changes in Italy

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; FAULT; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; NUMERICAL MODEL; PROBABILITY; STRESS CHANGE;

ITALY;

EID: 77952742035     PISSN: 13834649     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10950-008-9149-4     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. Basili R, Valensise G, Vannoli P, Burrato P, Fracassi U, Mariano S, Tiberti MM, Boschi E (2008) The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: summarizing 20 years of research on Italy's earthquake geology. Tectonophysics 453: 20-43. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2007. 04. 014.
2. Bird P (1999) Thin-plate and thin-shell finite-element programs for forward dynamic modeling of plate deformation and faulting. Comput Geosci 25: 383-394. doi: 10. 1016/S0098-3004(98)00142-3.
3. Chiarabba C, Jovane L, Di Stefano R (2005) A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings. Tectonophysics 395(3-4): 251-268. http://legacy. ingv. it/CSI. doi: 10. 1016/j. tecto. 2004. 09. 013.
4. Console R, Murru M, Falcone G, Catalli F (2008) Stress interaction effect on the occurrence probability of characteristic earthquakes in Central Apennines. J Geophys Res 113: B08313. doi: 10. 1029/2007JB005418.
5. CPTI04 (2004) Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani. http://emidius. mi. ingv. it/CPTI04/.
6. Dieterich JH (1994) A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering. J Geophys Res 99: 2601-2618. doi: 10. 1029/93JB02581.
7. DISS Working Group (2006) Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), Version 3. 0. 2: a compilation of potential sources for earthquakes larger than M 5. 5 in Italy and surrounding areas. http://www. ingv. it/DISS/, © INGV 2005, 2006, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia.
8. King GCP, Stein RS, Lin J (1994) Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84: 935-953.
9. Matthews MV, Ellsworth WL, Reasenberg PA (2002) A Brownian model for recurrent earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92: 2233-2250. doi: 10. 1785/0120010267.
10. Mc Cann WR, Nishenko SP, Sykes LR, Krause J (1979) Seismic gaps and plate tectonics: seismic potential for major boundaries. Pure Appl Geophys 117: 1082-1147. doi: 10. 1007/BF00876211.
11. Parsons T (2004) Recalculated probability of M≥7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. J Geophys Res 109: B05304. doi: 10. 1029/2003JB002667.
12. Parsons T (2005) Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations. J Geophys Res 110: B05S02. doi: 10. 1029/2004JB003190.
13. Peruzza L (2007) Note descrittive sui tempi di ricorrenza e probabilità di terremoto caratteristico nei prossimi 30 anni (dal 2007) associata alle GGsources del DISS v.3.0.2, In OGS (ed.) Rapporti esterni: 2007/33-OGA 11 RISK, Sgonico, OGS, p. 14.
14. Shimazaki K, Nakata T (1980) Seismic gap hypothesis: ten years later. Geophys Res Lett 7: 279-282. doi: 10. 1029/GL007i004p00279.
15. Stein R, Barka A, Dieterich J (1997) Progressive failure on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering. Geophys J Int 128: 594-604. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1365-246X. 1997. tb05321. x.
16. Toda S, Stein R, Reasenberg P, Dieterich J, Yoshida A (1998) Stress transferred by the 1995 Mw = 6. 9 Kobe, Japan, shock: Effect on aftershocks and future earthquake probabilities. J Geophys Res 103(B10): 24, 543-24, 565. doi: 10. 1029/98JB00765.
17. Wessel P, Smith WHF (1998) New improved version of the Generic Mapping Tools released. Eos Trans AGU 79: 579. doi: 10. 1029/98EO00426.
18. Zöller G, Hainzl S (2007) Recurrence time distributions of large earthquakes in a stochastic model for coupled fault systems: the role of fault interaction. Bull Seismol Soc Am 97(5): 1679-1687. doi: 10. 1785/0120060262.