메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 54, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 536-549

Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts

Author keywords

Point forecasts; Probability distributions; Rationality

Indexed keywords

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; FORECASTING METHOD; GROWTH RATE; HISTOGRAM; INFLATION; PROBABILITY; SURVEY;

EID: 77952554080     PISSN: 00142921     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2009.10.003     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (50)

References (47)
  • 1
    • 0005880209 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Answering the skeptics: yes, standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts
    • Andersen T.G., Bollerslev T. Answering the skeptics: yes, standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts. International Economic Review 1998, 39:885-905.
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 885-905
    • Andersen, T.G.1    Bollerslev, T.2
  • 4
    • 0037331902 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters
    • Carroll C.D. Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics 2003, 118:269-298.
    • (2003) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.118 , pp. 269-298
    • Carroll, C.D.1
  • 7
    • 6344265534 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the Bank of England density forecasts of inflation
    • Clements M.P. Evaluating the Bank of England density forecasts of inflation. Economic Journal 2004, 114:844-866.
    • (2004) Economic Journal , vol.114 , pp. 844-866
    • Clements, M.P.1
  • 8
    • 38949119361 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines
    • Clements M.P. Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines. International Journal of Forecasting 2008, 24:76-86.
    • (2008) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 76-86
    • Clements, M.P.1
  • 9
    • 84919627294 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Internal consistency of survey respondents' forecasts: evidence based on the survey of professional forecasters
    • Oxford University Press, Oxford, (Chapter 8), J.L. Castle, N. Shephard (Eds.)
    • Clements M.P. Internal consistency of survey respondents' forecasts: evidence based on the survey of professional forecasters. The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics. A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry 2009, 206-226. Oxford University Press, Oxford, (Chapter 8). J.L. Castle, N. Shephard (Eds.).
    • (2009) The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics. A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry , pp. 206-226
    • Clements, M.P.1
  • 10
    • 77952547778 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • b. Rounding of probability forecasts: the SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth. Mimeo, Department of Economics, University of Warwick
    • Clements, M.P., 2009b. Rounding of probability forecasts: the SPF forecast probabilities of negative output growth. Mimeo, Department of Economics, University of Warwick.
    • (2009)
    • Clements, M.P.1
  • 12
    • 77952552887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?. Mimeo, College of William and Mary
    • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., 2008. What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?. Mimeo, College of William and Mary.
    • (2008)
    • Coibion, O.1    Gorodnichenko, Y.2
  • 13
    • 77952545496 scopus 로고
    • Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, November/December
    • Croushore, D., 1993. Introducing: the survey of professional forecasters. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, November/December, 3-13.
    • (1993) , pp. 3-13
    • Croushore, D.1
  • 14
    • 0000824401 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A real-time data set for macroeconomists
    • Croushore D., Stark T. A real-time data set for macroeconomists. Journal of Econometrics 2001, 105:111-130.
    • (2001) Journal of Econometrics , vol.105 , pp. 111-130
    • Croushore, D.1    Stark, T.2
  • 15
    • 77952543942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting. Mimeo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC
    • D'Amico, S., Orphanides, A., 2006. Uncertainty and disagreement in economic forecasting. Mimeo, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.
    • (2006)
    • D'Amico, S.1    Orphanides, A.2
  • 16
    • 0347623647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating density forecasts: with applications to financial risk management
    • Diebold F.X., Gunther T.A., Tay A.S. Evaluating density forecasts: with applications to financial risk management. International Economic Review 1998, 39:863-883.
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 863-883
    • Diebold, F.X.1    Gunther, T.A.2    Tay, A.S.3
  • 17
    • 0040715916 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate density forecast evaluation and calibration in financial risk management: high frequency returns on foreign exchange
    • Diebold F.X., Hahn J.Y., Tay A.S. Multivariate density forecast evaluation and calibration in financial risk management: high frequency returns on foreign exchange. Review of Economics and Statistics 1999, 81:661-673.
    • (1999) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.81 , pp. 661-673
    • Diebold, F.X.1    Hahn, J.Y.2    Tay, A.S.3
  • 19
    • 0040455274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why are professional forecasters biased? Agency versus behavioral explanations
    • Ehrbeck T., Waldmann R. Why are professional forecasters biased? Agency versus behavioral explanations. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 1996, 111(1):21-40.
    • (1996) The Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.111 , Issue.1 , pp. 21-40
    • Ehrbeck, T.1    Waldmann, R.2
  • 21
    • 64549092817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters
    • Engelberg J., Manski C.F., Williams J. Comparing the point predictions and subjective probability distributions of professional forecasters. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 2009, 27:30-41.
    • (2009) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.27 , pp. 30-41
    • Engelberg, J.1    Manski, C.F.2    Williams, J.3
  • 22
    • 77952547260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reliability of the nipa estimates of U.S. economic activity
    • Fixler D.J., Grimm B.T. Reliability of the nipa estimates of U.S. economic activity. Survey of Current Business 2005, 85:9-19.
    • (2005) Survey of Current Business , vol.85 , pp. 9-19
    • Fixler, D.J.1    Grimm, B.T.2
  • 23
  • 24
    • 0000131597 scopus 로고
    • Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations
    • Frankel J.A., Froot K. Using survey data to test standard propositions regarding exchange rate expectations. American Economic Review 1987, 77:133-153.
    • (1987) American Economic Review , vol.77 , pp. 133-153
    • Frankel, J.A.1    Froot, K.2
  • 25
    • 0002157562 scopus 로고
    • The rationality of the foreign exchange rate. chartists, fundamentalists, and trading in the foreign exchange market
    • Frankel J.A., Froot K. The rationality of the foreign exchange rate. chartists, fundamentalists, and trading in the foreign exchange market. American Economic Review 1990, 80(2):181-185.
    • (1990) American Economic Review , vol.80 , Issue.2 , pp. 181-185
    • Frankel, J.A.1    Froot, K.2
  • 26
    • 77952541794 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters. ECB Working Paper no. 836, European Central Bank, Frankfurt
    • García, J.A., Manzanares, A., 2007. Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters. ECB Working Paper no. 836, European Central Bank, Frankfurt.
    • (2007)
    • García, J.A.1    Manzanares, A.2
  • 29
    • 0348242861 scopus 로고
    • Prediction with a generalized cost of error function
    • Granger C.W.J. Prediction with a generalized cost of error function. Operations Research Quarterly 1969, 20:199-207.
    • (1969) Operations Research Quarterly , vol.20 , pp. 199-207
    • Granger, C.W.J.1
  • 30
    • 38249026075 scopus 로고
    • Interval forecasting: an analysis based upon ARCH-quantile estimators
    • Granger C.W.J., White H., Kamstra M. Interval forecasting: an analysis based upon ARCH-quantile estimators. Journal of Econometrics 1989, 40:87-96.
    • (1989) Journal of Econometrics , vol.40 , pp. 87-96
    • Granger, C.W.J.1    White, H.2    Kamstra, M.3
  • 31
    • 77952553826 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in economics and finance. In: Judd, K.L., Tesfatsion, L. (Eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, Agent-based Computational Economics. North-Holland, Amsterdam
    • Hommes, C., 2006. Heterogeneous agent models (HAMs) in economics and finance. In: Judd, K.L., Tesfatsion, L. (Eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, Agent-based Computational Economics. vol. 2, North-Holland, Amsterdam.
    • (2006) , vol.2
    • Hommes, C.1
  • 32
    • 0001354926 scopus 로고
    • Testing the rationality of price forecasts: new evidence from panel data
    • Keane M.P., Runkle D.E. Testing the rationality of price forecasts: new evidence from panel data. American Economic Review 1990, 80:714-735.
    • (1990) American Economic Review , vol.80 , pp. 714-735
    • Keane, M.P.1    Runkle, D.E.2
  • 33
    • 45849133045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model
    • Lahiri K., Sheng X. Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model. Journal of Econometrics 2008, 144:325-340.
    • (2008) Journal of Econometrics , vol.144 , pp. 325-340
    • Lahiri, K.1    Sheng, X.2
  • 36
    • 0036867964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve
    • Mankiw N.G., Reis R. Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics 2002, 117:1295-1328.
    • (2002) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.117 , pp. 1295-1328
    • Mankiw, N.G.1    Reis, R.2
  • 37
    • 77952548356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Disagreement about inflation expectations. Mimeo, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA
    • Mankiw, N.G., Reis, R., Wolfers, J., 2003. Disagreement about inflation expectations. Mimeo, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
    • (2003)
    • Mankiw, N.G.1    Reis, R.2    Wolfers, J.3
  • 41
    • 0002115197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Federal Reserve information and the behaviour of interest rates
    • Romer C.D., Romer D.H. Federal Reserve information and the behaviour of interest rates. American Economic Review 2000, 90:429-457.
    • (2000) American Economic Review , vol.90 , pp. 429-457
    • Romer, C.D.1    Romer, D.H.2
  • 42
    • 84954218061 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationality and efficiency of individuals' forecasts
    • Oxford, Blackwells, M.P. Clements, D.F. Hendry (Eds.)
    • Stekler H.O. The rationality and efficiency of individuals' forecasts. A Companion to Economic Forecasting 2002, 222-240. Oxford, Blackwells. M.P. Clements, D.F. Hendry (Eds.).
    • (2002) A Companion to Economic Forecasting , pp. 222-240
    • Stekler, H.O.1
  • 43
    • 0345388996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts
    • Wallis K.F. Chi-squared tests of interval and density forecasts, and the Bank of England's fan charts. International Journal of Forecasting 2003, 19:165-176.
    • (2003) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 165-176
    • Wallis, K.F.1
  • 44
    • 0002368758 scopus 로고
    • The new ASA-NBER survey of forecasts by economic statisticians
    • Zarnowitz V. The new ASA-NBER survey of forecasts by economic statisticians. The American Statistician 1969, 23(1):12-16.
    • (1969) The American Statistician , vol.23 , Issue.1 , pp. 12-16
    • Zarnowitz, V.1
  • 45
    • 0002967545 scopus 로고
    • Twenty-two years of the NBER-ASA quarterly economic outlook surveys: aspects and comparisons of forecasting performance
    • University of Chicago Press and NBER, Chicago, J. Stock, M. Watson (Eds.)
    • Zarnowitz V., Braun P. Twenty-two years of the NBER-ASA quarterly economic outlook surveys: aspects and comparisons of forecasting performance. Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting 1993, 11-84. University of Chicago Press and NBER, Chicago. J. Stock, M. Watson (Eds.).
    • (1993) Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting , pp. 11-84
    • Zarnowitz, V.1    Braun, P.2
  • 47
    • 38249043432 scopus 로고
    • Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts
    • Zellner A. Biased predictors, rationality and the evaluation of forecasts. Economics Letters 1986, 21:45-48.
    • (1986) Economics Letters , vol.21 , pp. 45-48
    • Zellner, A.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.