Preliminary global assessment of terrestrial biodiversity consequences of sea-level rise mediated by climate change

Biodiversity and Conservation

Volumn 19, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 1599-1609

  Menon, Shaily ^a   Soberón, Jorge ^b   Li, Xingong ^c   Peterson, A Townsend ^b  

^a GRAND VALLEY STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS   (United States)

Author keywords

Biodiversity; Climate change; Ecoregions; Endemic species; Extinction; Marine intrusion; Sea level change

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOREGION; ENDEMIC SPECIES; ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCE; EXTINCTION RISK; HABITAT FRAGMENTATION; SEA LEVEL CHANGE;

ALASKA; NORTH AMERICA; SOUTH AMERICA; SOUTHEAST ASIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 77952240929     PISSN: 09603115     EISSN: 15729710     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10531-010-9790-4     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Anciães M, Peterson AT (2006) Climate change effects on neotropical manakin diversity based on ecological niche modeling. Condor 108: 778-791.
2. Araújo MB, Rahbek C (2006) How does climate change affect biodiversity? Science 313: 1396-1397.
3. Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Erhard M (2005) Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Glob Change Biol 11: 1504-1513.
4. Bindschadler RA (1998) Future of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Science 282: 428-429.
5. Bosello F, Roson R, Tol R (2007) Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: sea level rise. Environ Res Econ 37: 549-571.
6. Brooks TM, Pimm SL, Collar NJ (1997) The extent of deforestation predicts the number of birds threatened with extinction in insular South-east Asia. Conserv Biol 11: 382-394.
7. Brooks TM, Mittermeier RA, Mittermeier CG, da Fonseca GAB, Rylands AB, Konstant WR, Flick P, Pilgrim J, Oldfield S, Magin G, Hilton-Taylor C (2002) Habitat loss and extinction in the hotspots of biodiversity. Conserv Biol 16: 909-923.
8. Buckley LB, Roughgarden J (2004) Biodiversity conservation: effects of changes in climate and land use. Nature 430: 1.
9. Carter TR, Jones RN, Lu X, Bhadwal S, Conde C, Mearns LO, O'Neill BC, Rounsevell MD, Zurek MB (2007) New assessment methods and the characterization of future conditions. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 133-171.
10. Daniels R, White T, Chapman K (1993) Sea-level rise: destruction of threatened and endangered species habitat in South Carolina. Environ Manag 17: 373-385.
11. Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meisner C, Wheeler D, Yan J (2007) The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. World Bank, Washington, DC.
12. Dobson A, Jolly A, Rubenstein D (1989) The greenhouse effect and biological diversity. Trends Ecol Evol 4: 64-68.
13. Drakare S, Lennon JJ, Hillebrand H (2006) The imprint of the geographical, evolutionary and ecological context on species-area relationships. Ecol Lett 9: 215-227.
14. Dyurgerov MB, Meier MF (1997) Year-to-year fluctuations of global mass balance of small glaciers and their contribution to sea-level changes. Arct Alp Res 29: 392-402.
15. Erasmus BFN, van Jaarsveld AS, Chown SL, Kshatriya M, Wessels KJ (2002) Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change. Glob Change Biol 8: 679-693.
16. Galbraith H, Jones R, Park R, Clough J, Herrod-Julius S, Harrington B, Page G (2002) Global climate change and sea level rise: potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds. Waterbirds 25: 173-183.
17. Gopal B, Chauhan M (2006) Biodiversity and its conservation in the Sundarban mangrove ecosystem. Aquat Sci 68: 338-354.
18. Hitz S, Smith J (2004) Estimating global impacts from climate change. Glob Environ Change 14: 201-218.
19. Holt RD (1990) The microevolutionary consequences of climate change. Trends Ecol Evol 5: 311-315.
20. Kinzig AP, Harte J (2000) Implications of endemics-area relationships for estimates of species extinctions. Ecology 81: 3305-3311.
21. LaFever DH, Lopez RR, Feagin RA, Silvy NJ (2007) Predicting the impacts of future sea-level rise on an endangered lagomorph. Environ Manag 40: 430-437.
22. Lewis OT (2006) Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis. Phil Trans R Soc B: Biol Sci 361: 163-171.
23. Li X, Rowley RJ, Kostelnick JC, Braaten D, Meisel J, Hulbutta K (2009) GIS analysis of global impacts from sea level rise. Photogramm Eng Remote Sens 75(7): 807-818.
24. Lomolino MV (2000) Ecology's most general, yet protean pattern: the species area relationship. J Biogeogr 27: 17-26.
25. Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) (2005) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven.
26. MacArthur RH, Wilson EO (1967) The theory of island biogeography. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
27. Marbaix P, Nicholls RJ (2007) Accurately determining the risks of rising sea level. EOS Trans 88(43): 441-442.
28. May RM, Stumpf MPH (2000) Species-area relations in tropical forests. Science 290: 2084-2086.
29. McKee KL, Cahoon DR, Feller IC (2007) Caribbean mangroves adjust to rising sea level through biotic controls on change in soil elevation. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 16: 545-556.
30. Mimura N (1999) Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change. Clim Res 12: 137-143.
31. Oerlemans J, Bassford RP, Chapman W, Dowdeswell JA, Glazovsky AF, Hagen JO, Melvold K, de Ruyter de Wildt M, van de Wal RSW (2005) Estimating the contribution of Arctic glaciers to sea-level change in the next 100 years. Ann Glaciol 42: 230-236.
32. Olson DM, Dinerstein E, Wikramanayake ED, Burgess ND, Powell GVN, Underwood EC, D'amico JA, Itoua I, Strand HE, Morrison JC, Loucks CJ, Allnutt TF, Ricketts TH, Kura Y, Lamoreux JF, Wettengel WW, Hedao P, Kassem KR (2001) Terrestrial ecoregions of the world: a new map of life on Earth. Bioscience 51: 933-938.
33. Otto-Bliesner BL, Marshall SJ, Overpeck JT, Miller GH, Hu A (2006) Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last intergalciation. Sci 311: 1751-1753.
34. Overpeck JT, Otto-Bliesner BL, Miller GH, Muhs DR, Alley RB, Kiehl JT (2006) Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice-sheet instability and rapid sea-level rise. Sci 311: 1747-1750.
35. Parmesan C (1996) Climate and species' range. Nature 382: 765-766.
36. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
37. Parmesan C, Ryrholm N, Stefanescu C, Hill JK, Thomas CD, Descimon H, Huntley B, Kaila L, Kullberg J, Tammaru T, Tennent J, Thomas JA, Warren M (1999) Poleward shift of butterfly species' ranges associated with regional warming. Nature 399: 579-583.
38. Peters RL, Darling JDS (1985) The greenhouse effect and nature reserves. Bioscience 35: 707-717.
39. Peterson AT (2003) Projected climate change effects on Rocky Mountain and Great Plains birds: generalities of biodiversity consequences. Glob Change Biol 9: 647-655.
40. Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J, Sánchez-Cordero V, Soberón J, Buddemeier RH, Stockwell DRB (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 416: 626-629.
41. Peterson AT, Tian H, Martínez-Meyer E, Soberón J, Sánchez-Cordero V, Huntley B (2005) Modeling distributional shifts of individual species and biomes. In: Lovejoy TE, Hannah L (eds) Climate change and biodiversity. Yale University Press, New Haven, pp 211-228.
42. Pimm SL, Raven P (2000) Extinction by numbers. Nature 403: 843-845.
43. Pounds JA, Fogden MPL, Campbell JH (1999) Biological response to climate change on a tropical mountain. Nature 398: 611-615.
44. Rignot E, Kanagaratnam P (2006) Changes in the velocity structure of the Greenland ice sheet. Science 311: 986-990.
45. Shepherd A, Wingham D (2007) Recent sea-level contributions of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Sci 315: 1529-1532.
46. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, Ferreira de Siqueira M, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, van Jaarsveld AS, Midgely GE, Miles L, Ortega-Huerta MA, Peterson AT, Phillips OL, Williams SE (2004a) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427: 145-148.
47. Thomas R, Rignot E, Casassa G, Kanagaratnam P, Acuna C, Akins T, Brecher H, Frederick E, Gogineni P, Krabill W, Manizade S, Ramamoorthy H, Rivera A, Russell R, Sonntag J, Swift R, Yungel J, Zwally J (2004b) Accelerated sea-level rise from West Antarctica. Science 306: 255-258.
48. Thuiller W, Araujo MB, Pearson RG, Whittaker RJ, Brotons L, Lavorel S (2004) Biodiversity conservation: uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk. Nature 430: 34.
49. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araújo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102: 8245-8250.
50. Thuiller W, Midgely GF, Hughes GO, Bomhard B, Drew G, Rutherford MC, Woodward F (2006) Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia. Glob Change Biol 12: 759-776.
51. Titus JG (1990) Effect of climate change on sea-level rise and the implications for world agriculture. Hortscience 25: 1567-1572.
52. Tjørve E (2003) Shapes and functions of species area curves: a review of possible models. J Biogeogr 30: 827-835.
53. Visser ME, van Noordwijk AJ, Tinbergen JM, Lessells CM (1998) Warmer springs lead to mistimed reproduction in great tits (Parus major). Proc R Soc B 265: 1867-1870.