Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

Environmental Management

Volumn 45, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 577-589

  Prato, Tony ^a   Zeyuan, Qiu ^b   Pederson, Gregory ^c,d   Fagre, Dan ^c   Bengtson, Lindsey E ^c   Williams, Jimmy R ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

^b NEW JERSEY INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^c U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

^e BLACKLAND RESEARCH AND EXTENSION CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Agricultural production systems; Economic benefits; Future climate change

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM; BEST FIT; CLIMATE CONDITION; CROP YIELD; ECONOMIC BENEFITS; ECONOMIC IMPACTS; EMISSION SCENARIO; FARM SIZE; FITTING PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; FUTURE CLIMATE; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; MONTANA; NET RETURN; SOIL TYPES; STOCHASTIC EFFICIENCY;

CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; COSTS; CROPS; FARMS; LANDFORMS; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; PRODUCTION ENGINEERING; SOILS; STOCHASTIC MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION; CARBON EMISSION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP PRODUCTION; CROP YIELD; ECONOMIC IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION;

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTROLLED STUDY; COST UTILITY ANALYSIS; CROP PRODUCTION; CROPPING SYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; EVOLUTIONARY ADAPTATION; FARMING SYSTEM; PROCESS MODEL; PRODUCTIVITY; UNITED STATES; VALIDATION STUDY;

AGRICULTURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONSUMER PARTICIPATION; CROPS, AGRICULTURAL; INCOME; MODELS, THEORETICAL; MONTANA; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS;

MONTANA; UNITED STATES;

KATHETOSTOMA GIGANTEUM;

EID: 77952096511     PISSN: 0364152X     EISSN: 14321009     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00267-010-9427-0     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. RM Adams C Rosenzweig RM Peart JT Ritchie BA McCarl JD Glyer RB Curry JW Jones KJ Boote LH Allen Jr 1990 Global climate change and US agriculture Nature 345 219 224 10.1038/345219a0
2. Anderson JR, Dillon JL (1992) Risk analysis in dryland farming systems. Farm systems management series No. 2. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome
3. Antle JM, Capalbo SM, Hewitt J (1999) Testing hypotheses in integrated impact assessments: Climate variability and economic adaptation in Great Plains agriculture. National Institute for Global Environmental Change, Nebraska Earth Science Education Network, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, pp T5-4 and 21
4. 2 fertilization: An integrated assessment approach Climatic Change 64 289 315 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000025748.49738.93 1:CAS:528: DC%2BD2cXjsVOru78%3D (Pubitemid 38983061)
5. 2 concentrations: A simulation study applying EPIC to the central USA Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 83 171 203 10.1016/S0168-1923(96)02352-0 (Pubitemid 27165085)
6. Chen C, Jackson G, Neill K, Miller J (2006) Spring Pea, Lentil, and Chickpea Response to Phosphorus Fertilizer. Fertilize Facts. No 38. Montana State University Agricultural Extension Service, Bozeman, Montana. http://landresources.montana.edu/FertilizerFacts/ (March 2009)
7. Deekshatulu B, Krishnan LR, Jacob N (1999) Spatial analysis and modeling techniques-a review. Geo-informatics: Beyond 2000. An international conference on geo-informatics for natural resource assessment, monitoring and management, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, India, March 9-11
8. Djokic D (1993) Towards general purpose spatial decision support systems using existing technologies. Proceedings of the second international conference/workshop on integrating geographic information systems and environmental modeling. Breckenridge, CO, September 26-30
9. Easterling WE III, Hurd BH, Smith JB (2004) Coping with global climate change: The role of adaptation in the United States. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA
10. Engel R (1997) Response of Oat to Water and Nitrogen. Fertilize Facts No 15. Montana State University Agricultural Extension Service, Bozeman, Montana. http://landresources.montana.edu/FertilizerFacts/ (March 2009)
11. Flathead County Planning and Zoning Office (2009) Flathead county growth policy, Chap. 2: land uses. http://flathead.mt.gov/planning-zoning/growthpolicy/ Chapter%202%20April%2010.pdf (January 2009)
12. JB Hardaker JW Richardson G Lien KD Schumann 2004 Stochastic efficiency analysis with risk aversion bounds: A simplified approach Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 48 253 270 10.1111/j.1467-8489.2004.00239.x
13. Hungerford RD, Nemani RR, Running SW, Coughlan JC (1989) MTCLIM A Mountain Microclimate Simulation Model, USDA Forest Service, Research Paper INT-414
14. Inkley DB, Anderson MG, Blaustein AR, Burkett VR, Felzer B, Griffith B, Price J, Root TL (2004) Global climate change and wildlife in North America. Technical review 04-2. The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, MD
15. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis report. Cambridge University Press, UK. http://www.ipcc.ch/ ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm (June 2008)
16. RC Izaurralde NJ Rosenberg RA Brown JR Allison AM Thomson 2003 Integrated assessment of Hadley Centre (HadCM2) climate-change impacts on agricultural productivity and irrigation water supply in the conterminous United States. Part II. Regional agricultural production in 030 and 095 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 117 97 122 10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00024-8 (Pubitemid 36684428)
17. RC Izaurralde JR Williams WB McGill NJ Rosenberg MC Quiroga Jakas 2006 Simulating soil C dynamics with EPIC: model description and testing against long-term data Ecological Modelling 192 362 384 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.07.010 (Pubitemid 43188853)
18. HM Kaiser SJ Riha DS Wilks DG Rossiter F Sampath 1993 A farm-level analysis of economic and agronomic impacts of gradual climate warming American Journal of Agricultural Economics 75 387 398 10.2307/1242923
19. JS Kimball SW Running R Nemani 1997 An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 85 87 98 10.1016/S0168-1923(96)02366-0 (Pubitemid 27324137)
20. DP Loucks 1995 Developing and implementing decision support systems: A critique and challenge Water Resources Bulletin 31 571 582
21. EP Maurer 2007 Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios Climatic Change 82 309 325 10.1007/s10584-006-9180-9 (Pubitemid 46606967)
22. McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (eds) (2001) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, UK
23. SM McGinn A Toure OO Akinremi DJ Major AG Barr 1999 Agroclimate and crop response to climate change in Alberta, Canada Outlook on Agriculture 28 19 28
24. MS McKinney WE Easterling NJ Rosenberg 1992 Simulation of crop productivity and responses to climate change in the year 2030: The role of future technologies, adjustments and adaptations Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 59 103 127 10.1016/0168-1923(92)90088-L
25. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD, Friedlingstein P, Gaye AT, Gregory JM, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy JM, Noda A, Raper SCB, Watterson IG, Weaver AJ, Zhao Z-C (2007a) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
26. GA Meehl C Covey T Delworth M Latif B McAvaney JFB Mitchell FJ Stouffer KE Taylor 2007 The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: A new era in climate change research Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88 1383 1394 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383 (Pubitemid 47616759)
27. Montana Agricultural Statistics Service (2008) Montana agricultural statistics book (Economic). http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics-by-State/ Montana/Publications/Annual-Statistical-Bulletin/index.asp (February 2009)
28. Montana Agricultural Statistics Service (2009) County Profiles. Flathead County. http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics-by-State/Montana/Publications/ county/profiles/2007/C07029.HTM (January 2009)
29. Montana Department of Labor and Industry (2009) Demographic and Economic Information for Flathead County. Research and Analysis Bureau. http://www.ourfactsyourfuture.org/admin/uploadedPublications/3369-CF09-Flathead. pdf (March 2009)
30. Muehlbauer F (2007) Spring Lentil Western Yield Trial-2006. Northwest Agricultural Research Center, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT
31. National Research Council (2001) Climate change science: An analysis of some key questions. Committee on the science of climate change, National Academy Press, Washington, DC
32. 2 emissions Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 10288 10293 10.1073/pnas.0700609104 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD2sXmvVCmsL0%3D (Pubitemid 47175301)
33. Reilly JM (2002) Agriculture: The potential consequences of climate variability and change. A report of the National Agriculture Assessment Group for the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Cambridge University Press, UK
34. Richardson JW, Schumann KD, Feldman PA (2006) Simetar: Simulation and econometrics to analyze risk. College Station, TX. http://www.simetar.com/ Browser.aspx (accessed January 2009)
35. Santa Clara University (2008) Statistically Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections. http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled-cmip3-projections/ (February 2009)
36. B Smit I Burton R Klein J Wandel 2000 An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability Climatic Change 45 223 251 10.1023/A:1005661622966 (Pubitemid 30342949)
37. Smith JB (2004) A synthesis of potential climate change impacts on the U.S. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA
38. Spittlehouse DL, Stewart RB (2003) Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management 4:7-17. http://www.forrex.org/jem/archiveVol4iss1.asp (March 2008)
39. Stewart RB, Wheaton E, Spittlehouse DL (1998) Climate change: implications for the boreal forest. In: Legge AH, Jones LL (eds) Emerging air issues for the 21st century: The need for multidisciplinary management. Air and Waste Management Association, Pittsburg, PA, pp 86-101
40. Stougaard B (2007) Montana Statewide Spring Oat Variety Trial-2006. Northwest Agricultural Research Center, Montana State University, Creston, Montana. http://ag.montana.edu/nwarc/research/VarietyEvaluation/ VarietyEvaluation.htm (March 2009)
41. R Sugumaran 2002 Development of a range management decision support system using remote sensing, GIS and knowledge based system Computations and Electronics in Agriculture 37 199 205 10.1016/S0168-1699(02)00109-6 (Pubitemid 35456670)
42. R Sugumaran J Meyer J Davis 2004 A web-based environmental decision support system (WEDSS) for environmental planning and watershed management Journal of Geographical Systems 6 1 16 10.1007/s10109-004-0137-0 (Pubitemid 39470989)
43. G-R Walther E Post P Convey A Menzel C Parmesan TJC Beebee J-M Fromentin O Hoegh-Guldberg F Bairlein 2002 Ecological responses to recent climate change Nature 416 389 395 10.1038/416389a 1:CAS:528:DC%2BD38XislantL8%3D (Pubitemid 34272866)
44. G Wang D Schimel 2003 Climate change, climate modes, and climate impacts Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28 1 28 10.1146/annurev.energy.28. 050302.105444
45. Wen G, Chen C, Neill K, Wichman D, Jackson G (2006) Phosphorus fertilizer needed in winter pea and lentil production in central Montana? Fertilize Facts No 40. Montana State University Agricultural Extension Service, Bozeman, Montana. http://landresources.montana.edu/FertilizerFacts/ (March 2009)
46. JR Williams CA Jones JR Kiniry DA Spanel 1989 The EPIC crop growth model Transactions of the ASAE 32 497 511
47. AW Wood EP Maurer A Kumar DP Lettenmaier 2002 Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 107 4429 10.1029/2001JD000659
48. AW Wood LR Leung V Sridhar DP Lettenmaier 2004 Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs Climatic Change 15 189 216 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013685.99609.9e (Pubitemid 38300001)