The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Volumn 10, Issue 19, 2010, Pages 9473-9486

  Charlton Perez, A J ^a   Hawkins, E ^a   Eyring, V ^b   Cionni, I ^b   Bodeker, G E ^c   Kinnison, D E ^d   Akiyoshi, H ^e   Frith, S M ^f   Garcia, R ^d   Gettelman, A ^d   Lamarque, J F ^d   Nakamura, T ^e   Pawson, S ^g   Yamashita, Y ^e   Bekki, S ^h   Braesicke, P ⁱ   Chipperfield, M P ^j   Dhomse, S ^j   Marchand, M ^h   Mancini, E ^k   Morgenstern, O ^l   Pitari, G ^k   Plummer, D ^m   Pyle, J A ⁱ   Rozanov, E ^n,o   Scinocca, J ^m   Shibata, K ^p   Shepherd, T G ^q   Tian, W ^j   Waugh, D W ^r   more..

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^b GERMAN AEROSPACE CENTER DLR   (Germany)

^c BODEKER SCIENTIFIC   (New Zealand)

^d NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^e NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^f SCIENCE SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS INC   (United States)

^g NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER   (United States)

^h INSTITUT PIERRE SIMON LAPLACE   (France)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^j UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^k UNIVERSITY OF L'AQUILA   (Italy)

^l NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF WATER AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (New Zealand)

^m ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

ⁿ WORLD RADIATION CENTER   (Switzerland)

^o Land Climate Dynamics Group   (Switzerland)

^p METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

^q UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO   (Canada)

^r JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; GREENHOUSE GAS; OZONE DEPLETION; STRATOSPHERE; TOTAL OZONE; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 77951994880     PISSN: 16807316     EISSN: 16807324     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/acp-10-9473-2010     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Akiyoshi, H., Zhou, L. B., Yamashita, Y., Sakamoto, K., Yoshiki, M., Nagashima, T., Takahashi, M., Kurokawa, J., Takigawa, M., and Imamura, T.: A CCM simulation of the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex in the years 1980-2004 under the CCMVal scenarios, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D03103, doi:10.1029/ 2007JD009261, 2009.
2. Austin, J. and Wilson, R. J.: Sensitivity of polar ozone to sea surface temperatures and chemistry, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2010.
3. Barnett, J. J., Houghton, J. T., and Pyle, J. A.: The temperature dependence of the ozone concentration near the stratopause, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 101, 245-257, 1974.
4. Butchart, N., Scaife, A. A., Bourqui, M., de Grandpré, J., Hare, S. H. E., Kettleborough, J., Langematz, U., Manzini, E., Sassi, F., Shibata, K., Shindell, D., and Sigmond, M.: Simulations of anthropogenic change in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, Climate Dynam., 27, 727-741, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0162-4, 2006.
5. Chipperfield, M. P. and Feng, W.: Comment on: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion at northern mid-latitudes in the 21st century: The importance of future concentrations of greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1389, doi:10.1029/2002GL016353, 2003.
6. Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Jacoby, H., Pitcher, H., Reilly, J., and Richels, R.: Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations, Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington, 7 DC, USA, 154 pp., 2007.
7. De Grandpré, J., Beagley, S. R., Fomichev, V. I., Griffioen, E., Mc-Connell, J. C., Medvedev, A. S., and Shepherd, T. G.: Ozone climatology using interactive chemistry: Results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 26475-26491, 2000.
8. Déqué, M.: Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: model results and statistical correction according to observed values, Global Planet. Change, 57, 16-26, 2007.
9. Egorova, T., Rozanov, E., Zubov, V., Manzini, E., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Chemistry-climate model SOCOL: a validation of the present-day climatology, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1557-1576, doi:10.5194/acp-5-1557-2005, 2005.
10. Eyring, V., Butchart, N., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Bekki, S., Bodeker, G. E., Boville, B. A., Brühl, C., Chipper-field, M. P., Cordero, E., Dameris, M., Deushi, M., Fioletov, V. E., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M. A., Grewe, V., Jourdain, L., Kinnison, D. E., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Marsh, D. R., Nagashima, T., Newman,P. A., Nielsen, J. E., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R. S., Struthers, H., Tian, W., and Yoshiki, M.: Assessment of temperature, trace species and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D22308, doi:10.1029/2006JD007327, 2006.
11. Eyring, V., Waugh, D. W., Bodeker, G. E., Cordero, E., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Beagley, S. R., Boville, B., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Deckert, R., Deushi, M., Frith, S. M., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Giorgetta, M., Kinnison, D. E., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marsh, D. R., Matthes, S., Nagashima, T., Newman, P. A., Nielsen, J. E., Paw-son, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Schraner, M., Scinocca, J. F., Semeniuk, K., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Steil, B., Stolarski, R., Tian, W., and Yoshiki, M.: Multimodel projections of stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D16303, doi:10.1029/2006JD008332, 2007.
12. Eyring, V., Cionni, I., Bodeker, G. E., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Kinni-son, D. E., Scinocca, J. F., Waugh, D. W., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Chipperfield, M. P., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Kubin, A., Langematz, U., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Nakamura, T., Oman, L. D., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., Shi-bata, K., Tian, W., Braesicke, P., Hardiman, S. C., Lamarque, J. F., Morgenstern, O., Pyle, J. A., Smale, D., and Yamashita, Y.: Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9451-9472, doi:10.5194/acp-10-9451-2010, 2010.
13. Garcia, R. R., Marsh, D. R., Kinnison, D. E., Boville, B. A., and Sassi, F.: Simulation of secular trends in the middle atmosphere, 1950-2003, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09301, doi:10.1029/2006JD007485, 2007.
14. Haigh, J. D. and Pyle, J. A.: Ozone perturbation experiments in a two-dimensional circulation model, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 108, 551-574, 1982.
15. Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1095, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2607.1, 2009.
16. Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change, Clim. Dynam., doi:10.1007/s00382- 010-0810-6, in press, 2010.
17. 2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 8447-8452, doi:10.5194/acp-9-8447-2009, 2009.
18. Jourdain, L., Bekki, S., Lott, F., and Lefèvre, F.: The coupled chemistry-climate model LMDz-REPROBUS: description and evaluation of a transient simulation of the period 1980-1999, Ann. Geophys., 26, 1391-1413, doi:10.5194/angeo-26-1391-2008, 2008.
19. Lamarque, J.-F., Kinnison, D. E., Hess, P. G., and Vitt, F. M.: Simulated lower stratospheric trends between 1970 and 2005: Identifying the role of climate and composition changes, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D12301, doi:10.1029/2007JD009277, 2008.
20. Lamarque, J.-F., Bond, T. C., Eyring, V., Granier, C., Heil, A., Klimont, Z., Lee, D., Liousse, C., Mieville, A., Owen, B., Schultz, M. G., Shindell, D., Smith, S. J., Stehfest, E., Van Aardenne, J., Cooper, O. R., Kainuma, M., Mahowald, N., Mc-Connell, J. R., Naik, V., Riahi, K., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7017-7039, doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010.
21. Meehl, G. A. and Hibbard, K. A. A Strategy for Climate Change Stabilization Experiments with AOGCMs and ESMs (2007) WCRP Informal Report No. 3/2007, ICPO Publication No. 112, IGBP Report No. 57, World Climate Research Programme, Geneva
22. Moss, T., Babiker, M., Brinkman, S., Calvo, E., Carter, T., Edmonds, J., Elgizouli, I., Emori, S., Erda, L., Hibbard, K., Jones, R., Kainuma, M., Kelleher, J., Lamarque, J.-F., Manning, M., Matthews, B., Meehl, G., Meyer, L., Mitchell, J., Nakic'enovic', N., O'Neill, B., Pichs, T., Riahi, K., Rose, S., Runci, P., Stouf-fer, R., van Vuuren, D., Weyant, J., Wilbanks, T., van Ypersele, J. P., and Zurek, M.: Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 132 pp., available at: http://www.aimes.ucar.edu/docs/, 2008.
23. Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., Hurwitz, M. M., O'Connor, F. M., Bushell, A. C., Johnson, C. E., and Pyle, J. A.: The World Avoided by the Montreal Protocol, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L16811, doi:10.1029/2008GL034590, 2008.
24. Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., O'Connor, F. M., Bushell, A. C., Johnson, C. E., Osprey, S. M., and Pyle, J. A.: Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model. Part 1: The stratosphere, Geosci. Model Dev., 1, 43-57, 2009.
25. Morgenstern, O., Giorgetta, M. A., Shibata, K., Eyring V., Waugh, D. W., Shepherd, T. G., Akiyoshi, H., Austin, J., Baumgaertner, A. J. G., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Brühl, C., Chipperfield, M. P., Cugnet, D., Dameris, M., Dhomse, S., Frith, S. M., Garny, H., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Hegglin, M. I., Kinnison, D. E., Lamarque, J.-F., Mancini, E., Manzini, E., Marchand, M., Mi-chou, M., Nakamura, T., Nielsen, J. E., Pitari, G., Plummer, D. A., Rozanov, E., Scinocca, J. F., Smale, D., Strahan, S., Teysse-dre, H., Toohey, M., Tian, W., and Yamashita, Y.: Review of present-generation stratospheric chemistry-climate models and associated external forcings, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2010.
26. Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grbler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., Le-bre La Rovere, E., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.-H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., and Dadi, Z., IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, Cambridge University Press, 2000.
27. Oman, L., Waugh, D. W., Kawa, S. R., Stolarski, R. S., Douglass, A. R., and Newman, P. A.: Mechanisms and feedbacks causing changes in upper stratospheric ozone in the 21st century, J. Geo-phys. Res., in press, 2010.
28. Oman, L. D., Plummer, D., Waugh, D. W., Austin, J., Scinocca, J., Douglass, A. R., Salawitch, R. J., Akiyoshi, H., Bekki, S., Braesicke, P., Butchart, N., Chipperfield, M., Dhomse, S., Eyring, V., Frith, S., Garcia, R. R., Gettelman, A., Hardiman, S. C., Kinnison, D., Lamarque, J. F., Mancini, E., Marchand, M., Michou, M., Morgenstern, O., Pawson, S., Pitari, G., Peter, T., Pyle, J., Rozanov, E., Shepherd, T. G., Shibata, K., Stolarski, R., Teyssedre, H., and Tian,W.: Multi-model assessment of the factors driving the ozone evolution over the 21st century, J. Geo-phys. Res., submitted, 2010.
29. Pawson, S., Stolarski, R. S., Douglass, A. R., Newman, P. A., Nielsen, J. E., Frith, S. M., and Gupta, M. L.: Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations of stratospheric ozone-temperature coupling between 1950 and 2005, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D12103, doi:10.1029/2007JD009511, 2008.
30. Pitari, G., Mancini, E., Rizi, V., and Shindell, D. T.: Impact of Future Climate and Emission Changes on Stratospheric Aerosols and Ozone, J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 414-440, 2002.
31. Portmann, R. W. and Solomon, S.: Indirect radiative forcing of the ozone layer during the 21st century, Geophys Res. Lett., 34, L02813, doi:10.1029/2006GL028252, 2007.
32. Randeniya, L. K., Vohralik, P. F., and Plumb, I. C.: Stratospheric ozone depletion at northern mid latitudes in the 21st century: The importance of future concentrations of greenhouse gases nitrous oxide and methane, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(4), 1051, doi:10.1029/2001GL014295, 2002.
33. Ravishankara, A. R., Daniel, J. S., and Portmann, R. W.: Nitrous Oxide (N2O): The Dominant Ozone Depleting Substance Emitted in the 21st Century, Science, 326(123), 682-125, 2009.
34. Riahi, K., Gruebler, A., and Nakicenovic, N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74(7), 887-935, 2007.
35. Rosenfield, J. E., Douglass, A. R., and Considine, D. B.: The impact of increasing carbon dioxide on ozone recovery, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D6), 4049, doi:10.1029/2001JD000824, 2002.
36. Schraner, M., Rozanov, E., Schnadt Poberaj, C., Kenzelmann, P., Fischer, A. M., Zubov, V., Luo, B. P., Hoyle, C. R., Egorova, T., Fueglistaler, S., Brönnimann, S., Schmutz, W., and Peter, T.: Technical Note: Chemistry-climate model SOCOL: version 2.0 with improved transport and chemistry/microphysics schemes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5957-5974, doi:10.5194/acp-8-5957-2008, 2008.
37. Scinocca, J. F., N. A. McFarlane, M. Scinocca, J. F., McFar-lane, N. A., Lazare, M., Li, J., and Plummer, D.: Technical Note: The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 7055-7074, doi:10.5194/acp-8-7055-2008, 2008.
38. Shepherd, T. G.: Dynamics, stratospheric ozone, and climate change, Atmos. Ocean, 46, 117-138, 2008.
39. Shibata, K. and Deushi, M.: Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980-2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute, Ann. Geophys., 26, 1299-1326, doi:10.5194/angeo-26-1299-2008, 2008a.
40. Shibata, K. and Deushi, M.: Simulation of the stratospheric circulation and ozone during the recent past (1980-2004) with the MRI chemistry-climate model, CGER's Supercomputer Monograph Report Vol.13, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, 154 pp., 2008b.
41. SPARC CCMVal, SPARC CCMVal Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models, edited by: Eyring. V., Shepherd. T. G., and Waugh. D. W., SPARC Report No. 5, WCRP-X, WMO/TD-No. X, http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC, 2010.
42. Teyssèdre, H., Michou, M., Clark, H. L., Josse, B., Karcher, F., Olivié, D., Peuch, V.-H., Saint-Martin, D., Cariolle, D., Attié, J.-L., Nédélec, P., Ricaud, P., Thouret, V., van der A, R. J., Volz-Thomas, A., and Chéroux, F.: A new tropospheric and stratospheric Chemistry and Transport Model MOCAGE-Climat for multi-year studies: evaluation of the present-day climatology and sensitivity to surface processes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 5815-5860, doi:10.5194/acp-7-5815-2007, 2007.
43. 3-climate predictions, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 281-303, 2005.
44. Tian, W., Chipperfield, M. P., Gray, L. J., and Zawodny, J. M.: Quasi-biennial oscillation and tracer distributions in a coupled chemistry-climate model, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D20301, doi:10.1029/ 2005JD006871, 2006.
45. Van Vuuren, D., den Elzen, M., Lucas, P., Eickhout, B., Strengers, B., van Ruijven, B., Wonink, S., van Houdt, R.: Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs, Climatic Change, 91, 119-159, doi:10.1007/s/10584-006-9172-9, 2007.
46. Waugh, D. W. and Eyring V., Waugh, D. W. and Eyring, V.: Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 5699-5713, doi:10.5194/acp-8-5699-2008, 2008.
47. Waugh, D. W., Oman, L., Kawa, S. R., Stolarski, R. S., Pawson, S., Douglass, A. R., Newman, P. A., and Nielsen, J. E.: Impacts of climate change on stratospheric ozone recovery, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03805, doi:10.1029/2008GL036223, 2009.
48. World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP): Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2006, World Meteorological Organization, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 50, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007.