Economic growth under the demographic transition: A theory and some international evidence

The Economics of an Ageing Population: Macroeconomic Issues

Volumn , Issue , 2004, Pages 3-34

  Fukuda, Shin Ichi ^a   Morozumi, Ryoko ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 77951768916     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.4337/9781845421601.00009     Document Type: Chapter

References (38)

1. Barro, R.J. (1991), 'Economic growth in a cross section of countries', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 407-43.
2. Barro, R.J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1995), Economic Growth, New York: McGraw-Hill.
3. Bloom, D.E., D. Canning and P.N. Malaney (1999), 'Demographic change and economic growth in Asia', Center for International Development (CID) Working Paper no. 15, Harvard University.
4. Bloom, D.E. and R.B. Freeman (1988), 'Economic development and the timing and componets of population growth', Journal of Policy Modeling, 10, 57-81.
5. Bloom, D.E. and J.G. Williamson (1998), 'Demography transitions and economic miracles in emerging Asia', World Bank Economic Review, 12, 419-55.
6. Bryant, R.C., H. Faruqee and D. Velculescu (2002), 'Youth dependency and demographic change: implications for the global economy', paper presented at the International Forum of Collaboration Projects, Tokyo, Spring.
7. Coale, A.J. and E. Hoover (1958), Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-income Countries, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
8. Diamond, P. (1965), 'National debt in a neoclassical growth model', American Economic Review, 55, 1126-50.
9. Easterly, W. (1995), 'Explaining miracles: growth regressions meet the Gang of Four', in T. Ito and A.O. Krueger (eds), Growth Theories in Light of East Asian Experience, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 267-90.
10. Ehrlich, I. and F.T. Lui (1991), 'Intergenerational trade, longevity, and economic growth', Journal of Political Economy, 99, 1029-59.
11. Fair, R.C. and K.M. Dominguez (1991), 'Effects of changing U.S. age distribution on macroeconomic equations', American Economic Review, 81, 1276-94.
12. Faruqee, H. and M. Mühleinsen (2001), 'Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability', IMF Working Paper WP/01/40, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
13. Fry, M. and A. Mason (1982), 'The variable rate-of-growth effect in the life-cycle saving model: children, capital inflows, interest and growth in a new specification of the life-cycle model applied to seven Asian developing countries', Economic Inquiry, 20, 426-42.
14. Higgins, M. (1998), 'The demographic determinants of savings, investment and international capital flows', International Economic Review, 39, 343-69.
15. Higgins, M. and J.G. Williamson (1996), 'Asian demography and foreign capital dependence', NBER Working Paper no. 5560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.
16. Higgins, M. and J.G. Williamson (1997), 'Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence of foreign capital', Population and Development Review, 23, 261-93.
17. Horioka, C.Y. (1991a), 'The determinants of Japan's saving rate: the impact of the age structure of the population and other factors', Economic Studies Quarterly, 42, 237-53.
18. Horioka, C.Y. (1991b), 'Future trends in Japan's saving rate and the implications thereof for Japan's external imbalance', Japan and the World Economy, 3, 307-30.
19. Hurd, M.-D. and N. Yashiro, (eds) (1997), The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
20. Kalemli-Ozcan, S., H.E. Ryder and D.N. Weil (2000), 'Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth', Journal of Development Economics, 62, 1-23.
21. Kelley, A.C. and R.M. Schmidt (1996), 'Saving, dependency and development', Journal of Population Economics, 9, 365-86.
22. Krugman, P. (1994), 'The myth of Asia's miracle', Foreign Affairs, 73, 62-78.
23. Levine, R. and D. Renelt (1992), 'A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions', American Economic Review, 82, 942-63.
24. Lindh, T. and B. Malmberg (1999), 'Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990', Journal of Population Economics, 12, 431-49.
25. Loayza, N., K. Schmidt-Hebbel and L. Servén (2000), 'What derives private saving across the world', Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 165-81.
26. Malmberg, B. (1994), 'Age structure effects on economic growth - Swedish evidence', Scandinavian Economic History Review, 42, 279-95.
27. Mankiw, N.G., D. Romer and D.N. Weil (1992), 'A contribution to the empirics of economic growth', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407-37.
28. Mason, A. (1988), 'Saving, economic growth, and demographic change', Population and Development Review, 14, 113-44.
29. Masson, P. (1990), 'Long-term Macroeconomic Effects of Aging Populations', Finance and Development, 27, 6-9.
30. McKibbin, W.J. and J. Nguyen (2002), 'Demographic change in Japan: projected impacts in an empirical model with and without children', paper presented at the International Forum of Collaboration Projects, Tokyo, Spring.
31. McMillan, H.M. and J.B. Baesel (1990), 'The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation', Journal of Macroeconomics, 12, 167-95.
32. Solow, R. (1956), 'A contribution to the theory of economic growth', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.
33. Summers, R. and A. Heston (1988), 'A new set of international comparisons of real product and price levels estimates for 130 countries, 1950-1985', Review of Income and Wealth, 34, 1-25.
34. Summers, R. and A. Heston (1991), 'The Penn World Table (Mark 5): an expanded set of international comparisons, 1950-1988', Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 327-68.
35. Taylor, A. (1995), 'Debt, dependence and the demographic transition: Latin America into the next century', World Development, 23, 869-79.
36. Webb, S. and H. Zia (1990), 'Lower birth rates=higher saving in LDCs', Finance and Development, 27, 12-14.
37. White, H. (1980), 'A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity', Econometrica, 48, 817-38.
38. World Bank (1993), The East Asian Miracle, New York: Oxford University Press.