The cost of low fertility in Europe;Le coût de la basse fécondité en Europe

European Journal of Population

Volumn 26, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 141-158

  Bloom, David E ^a   Canning, David ^a   Fink, Günther ^a   Finlay, Jocelyn E ^a  

^a HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

Author keywords

Economic growth; Fertility; Population dynamics

Indexed keywords

BIRTH RATE; ECONOMIC GROWTH; ECONOMIC IMPACT; FERTILITY; INCOME; LABOR MARKET; POPULATION DECLINE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION MIGRATION; POPULATION SIZE;

EUROPE;

EID: 77951767868     PISSN: 01686577     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10680-009-9182-1     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Aarssen, L. W. (2005). Why is fertility lower in wealthier countries? The role of relaxed fertility-selection. Population and Development Review, 31(1), 113-126.
2. Adsera, A. (2006a). An economic analysis of the gap between desired and actual fertility: The case of Spain. Review of Economics of the Household, 4, 75-95.
3. Adsera, A. (2006b). Marital fertility and religion in Spain, 1985-1999. Population Studies, 60(2), 205-221.
4. Becker, G. S., Glaeser, E. L., & Murphy, K. M. (1999). Population and economic growth. American Economic Review, 89(2), 145-149.
5. Billari, F., Frejka, T., et al. (2004). Discussion of paper 'Explanations of the fertility crisis in modern societies: A search for commonalities Population Studies 57(3): 241-263, by John Caldwell and Thomas Schindlmayr. Population Studies 58(1): 77-92.
6. Billari, F., & Kohler, H.-P. (2004). Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe. Population Studies, 58(2), 161-176.
7. Bjorklund, A. (2006). Does family policy affect fertility? Lessons from Sweden. Journal of Population Economics, 19, 3-24.
8. Blondal, S., & Scarpetta, S. (1999). The retirement decision in OECD Countries. OECD Economics Department working paper 202.
9. Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., & Finlay, J. E. (2007a). Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic Growth (Forthcoming).
10. Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Mansfield, R. K., & Moore, M. (2007b). Demographic change, social security systems and savings. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 92-114.
11. Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend: A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Population matters monograph MR-1274. Santa Monica: RAND.
12. Bloom, D. E., & Freeman, R. B. (1986). The effects of rapid population growth on labor supply and employment in developing countries. Population and Development Review, 12(3), 381-414.
13. Bloom, D. E., & Freeman, R. B. (1987). Population growth, labor supply, and employment in developing countries. In D. G. Johnson & R. D. Lee (Eds.), Population growth and economic development: Issues and evidence. Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin press.
14. Bloom, D. E., & Freeman, R. B. (1988). Economic development and the timing and components of population growth. Journal of Policy Modeling, 10(1), 57-81.
15. Bongaarts, J., & Bulatao, R. A. (1999). Completing the demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 25(3), 515-529.
16. Brander, J. A., & Dowrick, S. (1994). The role of fertility and population in economic growth. Journal of Population Economics, 7(1), 1-25.
17. Brewster, K. L., & Rindfuss, R. R. (2000). Fertility and women's employment in industrialized nations. Annual Review of Sociology, 26(1), 271-296.
18. Coleman, D. (2006). Immigration and ethnic change in low-fertility countries: A third demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 32(3), 401-446.
19. Deardorff, A. V. (1976). The optimum growth rate for population: Comment. International Economic Review, 17(8), 510-515.
20. Ehrlich, P. R. (2008). Demography and policy: A view from outside the discipline. Population and Development Review, 34(1), 103-113.
21. Ehrlich, I., & Kim, J. (2007). Has social security influenced family formation and fertility in OECD countries? An economic and econometric analysis. NBER working paper 12869.
22. Engelhardt, H., & Prskawetz, A. (2004). On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time. European Journal of Population, 20, 35-62.
23. Eurostat (2008). Online statistics: Population by citizenship-Foreigners. http://ec. europa. eu/eurostat. Accessed 15 March 2008.
24. Fernandez, R., & Fogli, A. (2006). Fertility: The role of culture and family experience. Journal of the European Economic Association, 4(2), 552-561.
25. Feyrer, J. (2007). Demographics and productivity. Review of Economics and Statistics, 89, 100-109.
26. Feyrer, J., Sacerdote, B., & Stern, A. D. (2008). Will the stork return to Europe? Understanding fertility within developed nations. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(3), 3-22.
27. Galor, O. (2005). The demographic transition and the emergence of sustained economic growth. Journal of European Economic Association, 3(2-3), 494-504.
28. Galor, O., & Weil, D. N. (1999). From Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. American Economic Review, 89(2), 150-154.
29. Galor, O., & Weil, D. N. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90(4), 806-828.
30. Garrido, L. J., & Malo, M. A. (2005). Postponement of family formation and public budget: Another approach to very low fertility in Spain. Public Finance and Management, 5(1), 152-177.
31. Gruber, J., & Wise, D. (1998). Social security and retirement: An international comparison. The American Economic Review, 88(2), 158-163.
32. Gruber, J., & Wise, D. A. (1999). Social security and retirement around the world. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
33. Gruber, J., & Wise, D. A. (2004). Social security programs and retirement around the world: Micro-estimation. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
34. Hock, H., & Weil, D. N. (2007). Modeling the effects of population aging on consumption in the presence of intergenerational transfers. In R. Clark, N. Ogawa, & A. Mason population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar.
35. ILO Bureau of Statistics. (2007). ILO database on labour statistics. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization.
36. Kelley, A. C. (1988). Economic consequences of population change in the third world. Journal of Economic Literature, 26, 1685-1728.
37. Kelley, A. C., & Schmidt, R. M. (1995). Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change. Demography, 32(4), 543-555.
38. Kelley, A. C., & Schmidt, R. M. (2005). Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis. Journal of Population Economics, 18(2), 275-300.
39. Kohler, H.-P. (2006). Determinants of low fertility in Europe. Entre Nous 63.
40. Kohler, H.-P., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641-680.
41. Lee, R., & Mason, A. (2008). Fertility, human capital, and economic growth over the demographic transition. Berkeley: Mimeo.
42. Lesthaeghe, R., & Willems, P. (1999). Is low fertility a temporary phenomenon in the European Union? Population and Development Review, 25(2), 211-228.
43. Lutz, W., & Skirbekk, V. (2005). Policies addressing the tempo effect in low-fertility countries. Population and Development Review, 31(4), 699-720.
44. Malmberg, B. (2008). Global population ageing, migration and European external policies. Stockholm: Institute for Future Studies.
45. McDonald, P. (2006). Low fertility and the state: The efficacy of policy. Population and Development Review, 32(3), 485-510.
46. McDonald, P. (2008). Very low fertility: Consequences, causes and policy approaches. The Japanese Journal of Population6(1), 19-23.
47. Samuelson, P. A. (1975). The optimum growth rate for population. International Economic Review, 16(3), 531-538.
48. Samuelson, P. A. (1976). The optimum growth rate for population: Agreement and evaluations. International Economic Review, 17(2), 516-525.
49. Simon, J. L. (1996). The ultimate resource 2. Princeton University Press: Princeton.
50. Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.
51. Strulik, H. (2005). The role of human capital and population growth in R& D-based models of economic growth. Review of International Economics, 13(1), 129-145.
52. United Nations (2007). World population prospects: The 2006 revision. CD ROM.
53. Vlasblom, J. D., & Schippers, J. J. (2004). Increases in Female Labour Force Participation in Europe: Similarities and Difference. Tjalling C. Koopmans Research Institute Discussion Paper Series. nr. 04-12.
54. Weil, D. N. (1999). Population growth, dependency, and consumption. American Economic Review, 89(2), 251-255.
55. World Bank. (2007). World Bank development indicators CD-ROM. Washington, DC: World Bank.
56. World Health Organization. (1999). Life tables for WHO member states. Geneva: World Health Organization. http://www. who. int/whosis/database/life_tables. cfm. Accessed 15 March 2008.