Ethical and data-integrity problems in the second lancet survey of mortality in Iraq

Defence and Peace Economics

Volumn 21, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 1-41

  Spagat, Michael ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Conflict; Ethics; Fabrication; Falsification; Iraq mortality; Lancet survey

Indexed keywords

EID: 77951656986     PISSN: 10242694     EISSN: 14768267     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10242690802496898     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. AAPOR (2005) AAPOR code of professional ethics and practice, available from http://www.aapor.org/AAPOR_Code.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
2. AAPOR (2009a) AAPOR Finds Gilbert Burnham in Violation of Ethics Code, 3 February, available from: http://www.aapor.org/AAPOR_Finds_Gilbert_Burnham_in_Violation_of_Ethics_Code/1383.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
3. AAPOR (2009b) AAPOR Releases Additional Detail on AAPOR Standards Violation, available from: http://www.aapor.org/uploads/AAPOR_Press_Releases/BurhnamDetailWebsite.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
4. AAPOR and ASA (2003) Interviewer fabrication in survey research, available from: http://www.amstat.org/sections/SRMS/falsification.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
5. ABC (2007a) Ebbing hope in a landscape of loss marks a national survey of Iraq, available from: http://abcnews.go.com/images/US/1033aIraqpoll.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
6. ABC (2007b) Iraq poll: note on methodology, available from: http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=3571535&page=1 (accessed 24 March 2010).
7. Ball, P., Kobrak, P. and Spirer, H.F. (1999) State Violence in Guatemala, 1960-1996: a Quantitative Reflection. American Association for the Advancement of Science and Centro International Para Investigaciones en Derechos Humanos.
8. BBC (2006) Baghdad market blast kills scores. 1 July 2006, available from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/ middle_east/5136028.stm (accessed 24 March 2010).
9. Benini, A. and Moulton, L. (2004) Civilian victims in an asymmetrical conflict: operation enduring freedom, Afghanistan. Journal of Peace Research 41(4) 403-422.
10. Biever, C. (2007) Winning the war for Iraq's dead. New Scientist, 25 April 2007.
11. Bloomberg School of Public Health (2007) Release of data from the 2006 Iraq mortality study, available from: http://www.jhsph.edu/refugee/publications_tools/iraq/index.html (accessed 24 March 2010).
12. Bloomberg School of Public Health (2009) Review Completed of 2006 Iraq Mortality Study, available from: http://www.jhsph.edu/publichealthnews/pressreleases/2009/iraqreview.html (accessed 24 March 2010).
13. Bohannon, J. (2006) Iraqi death estimates called too high: methods faulted. Science 314(5798) 396-397.
14. Bohannon, J. (2008) Calculating Iraq's death toll: WHO study backs lower estimate. Science 319(5861) 273.
15. Burkle, F.M., Tapp, C., Wilson, K., Takaro, T., Guyatt, G.H., Amad, H. and Mills, E.J., (2008) Iraq Warmortality estimates: a systematic review. Conflict and Health 2(1) 7 March 2008.
16. Burnham, G. (2007) Counting the dead in Iraq. Videotaped lecture given at MIT, available from: http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/453/ (accessed 24 March 2010).
17. Burnham, G., Lafta, R., Doocy, S. and Roberts, L. (2006a) Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey. The Lancet 368(9545) October, 1421-1428.
18. Burnham, G., Doocy, S., Dzeng, E., Lafta, R. and Roberts, L. (2006b) The human cost of the war in Iraq. MIT, available from: http://web.mit.edu/cis/human-cost-war-101106.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
19. Burnham, G., Lafta, R., Doocy, S. and Roberts, L. (2007) Authors' Reply. The Lancet 369(9556) 103-104.
20. Burnham, G. and Roberts, L. (2006a) A debate over Iraqi death estimates. Science 314(5803) 1241.
21. Burnham, G. and Roberts, L (2006b) Counting corpses: the Lancet number crunchers respond to Slate's Fred Kaplan. 20 Nov. 2006, available from: http://www.slate.com/id/2154203/?nav=navoa (accessed 24 March 2010).
22. Burnham, G. and Roberts, L. (2008) The authors respond. National Journal, 19 January 2008, available from: http://personal.rhul.ac.uk/uhte/014/Letter%20to%20the%20National%20Journal.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
23. Checchi, F. and Roberts, L. (2005) Interpreting and using mortality data in humanitarian emergencies: a primer for non-epidemiologists. HPN Network Paper, no. 52.
24. Cole, J. (2007) Informed Comment. 31 January 2007, available from: http://www.juancole.com/2007/01/bush-comment-on-najaf-farcical.html (accessed 24 March 2010).
25. Dardagan, H., Sloboda, J. and Dougherty, J. (2006b) Reality checks: some responses to the latest Lancet estimates, available from: http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/beyond/reality-checks/1 (accessed 24 March 2010).
26. Department of Defense (DoD) (2006) Measuring stability and security in Iraq, August 2006, available from: http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/Security-Stabilty-ReportAug29r1.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
27. Deltoidblog (2006 and 2008) Les Roberts responds to Steven E. Moore, available from: http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2006/10/les_roberts_responds_to_steven.php (accessed 24 March 2010).
28. Dougherty, J. (2007) Mortality in Iraq. The Lancet 369(9556) 102-103.
29. EPIC (2004) An interview with EPIC advisor Richard Garfield, available from: http://web.archive.org/web/20080408193639/http:/www.epic-usa.org/An_Interview_with_EPIC_A.html (accessed 24 March 2010).
30. Fafo (undated) Content of IMIRA (ILCS), available from: http://www.fafo.no/ais/middeast/iraq/imira/content.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
31. Giles, J. (2007) Death toll in Iraq: survey team takes on its critics, Nature 446(7131) 6-7.
32. Goma Epidemiology Group (1995) Public health impact of Rwandan refugee crises: what happened in Goma Zaire in July 1994? The Lancet 345(8646) 339-344.
33. Gourley, S., Johnson, N., Onnela, J., Reinert, G and Spagat, M. (2007) The two Lancet surveys of Iraq do not validate each other, available from: http://www.rhul.ac.uk/Economics/Research/conflict-analysis/iraq-mortality/L1versusL2.html (accessed 24 March 2010).
34. Guha-Sapir, D., Degomme, O. and Pedersen, J. (2007) Mortality in Iraq. The Lancet, 369(9556) 102.
35. Herold, M. (2004) Daily casualty count of Afghan civilians killed by US bombing, available from: http://pubpages.unh.edu/mwherold/ (accessed 24 March 2010).
36. Hicks, M. (2006) Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: were valid and ethical field methods used in this survey? HiCN Research Design Note 3.
37. Iraq Body Count (continuously updated), available from: http://www.iraqbodycount.org/ (accessed 24 March 2010).
38. Iraq Family Health Survey Study Group (IFHS) (2008a). Violence-related mortality in Iraq from 2002 to 2006. New England Journal of Medicine 358(5) 484-493.
39. Iraq Family Health Survey (2008b) IFHS web site, available from: http://www.emro.who.int/iraq/surveys_ifhs.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
40. Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004 (ILCS) (2005a) Overview, available from: http://reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900sid/KHII-6CC44A?OpenDocument (accessed 24 March 2010).
41. Iraq Living Conditions Survey 2004 (ILCS) (2005b) Volume I: tabulation report, available from: http://reliefweb.int/rw/RWFiles2005.nsf/FilesByRWDocUNIDFileName/KHII-6CC44A-undp-irq-31dec1.pdf/$File/undp-irq- 31dec1.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
42. Janabi, A., (2006) Iraqi group: civilian toll over 37,000. 31 July 2004, available from: http://english.aljazeera.net/archive/2004/07/200849155555897934.html (accessed 24 March 2010).
43. Johnson, N., Spagat, M., Gourley, S., Onnela, J. and Reinert, G. (2008) Bias in epidemiological studies of conflict mortality. Journal of Peace Research 45(5) 653-664.
44. Kaiser, J. (2007) Iraq mortality study authors release data, but only to some. Science 316(5823) 355.
45. Kane, D. (2007) The Lancet surveys of mortality in Iraq, available from: http://cran.at.r-project.org/web/packages/lancet.iraqmortality/index.html (accessed 24 March 2010).
46. Kuzman M., Tomic B. Stevanovic, R. et al. (1993) Fatalities in the war in Croatia, 1991 and 1992: underlying and external causes of death. JAMA 270(5) 626-628.
47. Laaksonen, Seppo (2008) Retrospective Two-Stage Cluster Sampling for Mortality in Iraq. International Journal of Market Research 50(3) 403-417.
48. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) (undated) The use of epidemiological tools in conflict-affected populations: open-access educational resources for policy-makers, available from: http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/hpu/conflict/epidemiology/index.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
49. Malfait, P., Moren, A., Dillon, J.C. et al. (1993) An outbreak of pellagra related to changes in dietary niacin among Mozambican refugees in Malawi. International Journal of Epidemiology 22(3) 504-511.
50. Munro, N. (2008) Unscientific methods? National Journal, 4 January, available from: http://news.nationaljournal. com/articles/databomb/sidebar.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
51. Munro, N. and Canon, C. (2008) Data bomb. National Journal, 4 January 2008, available from: http://news.national- journal.com/articles/databomb/index.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
52. NGO Coordination Committee of Iraq (2006) Iraq Emergency Situation, available from: http://www.american- freedomcampaign.org/storage/civicdev/documents/ncci_-_iraq_emergency_situation_-_final_report_- _2nd_may_2006.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
53. O'Hanlon, M.E. and Kamp, N. (2006) Iraq Index: Tracking Variables of Reconstruction and Security in Post-Saddam Iraq. Washington DC: The Brookings Institution, available from: http://www.brookings.edu/saban/iraq- index.aspx/ (accessed 24 March 2010).
54. ORB (2008) Update on Iraq Casualty Data, available from: http://www.opinion.co.uk/Newsroom_details.aspx?NewsId=120 (accessed 24 March 2010).
55. Roberts, L. and Despines, M. (1999) Mortality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Lancet 353(9171) 2249-2250.
56. Roberts, L., Hale, C., Belyakdoumi, F. et al. (2001) Mortality in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. New York: International Rescue Committee, available from: http://www.grandslacs.net/doc/3741.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
57. Roberts, L., Lafta, R., Garfield, R., Khudhairi, J. and Burnham, G. (2004) Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey. The Lancet 364(9448) 1857-1864.
58. Roug, L. and Smith, D. (2006) War's Iraqi death toll tops 50,000. Los Angeles Times, 25 June 2006, available from: http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0625-03.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
59. Sloboda, J., Dardagan, H. and Bagnall, P. (2007) How can the utility of press reports be assessed?, available from: http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/qa/assessment/ (accessed 24 March 2010).
60. SMART (2006) Measuring mortality, nutritional status, and food security in crisis situations: SMART METHODOLOGY, available from: http://www.smartindicators.org/SMART_Methodology_08-07-2006.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
61. Spagat, M. (2007) The discussion of possible sampling bias in the second Lancet study of mortality in Iraq, available from: http://personal.rhul.ac.uk/uhte/014/Households%20in%20Conflict%202007.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
62. Spagat, M. (2008) Counting the dead in Iraq. Presentation given at the JSM meetings in Denver, CO, 6 August 2008, available from: http://personal.rhul.ac.uk/uhte/014/Denver.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
63. Spiegel, P.B. and Salama P. (2000) War and mortality in Kosovo, 1998-99: an epidemiological testimony. The Lancet 355(9222) 2204-2209.
64. Steele, J. and Goldenberg, S. (2008) What is the real death toll in Iraq? The Guardian, 19 March 2008.
65. The National Interest (radio programme) (2006) Counting the Dead in Iraq, ABC Radio International, available from: http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2006/1778810.htm (accessed 24 March 2010).
66. UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) (2007) Human Rights Report: 1 November - 31 December 2006, available from: http://www.uniraq.org/FileLib/misc/HR%20Report%20Nov%20Dec%202006%20EN.pdf (accessed 24 March 2010).
67. United Press International (UPI) (2005) Iraqi civilian casualties, 12 July, available from: http://iraqmortality.org/iraqi-civilian-casualties (accessed 24 March 2010).
68. United States State Department (2005) A trio of disinformers: Islam Memo, Muhammad Abu Nasr, and Jihad Unspun, available from: http://www.america.gov/st/pubs-english/2005/April/20050408133648atlahtnevel0. 303631.html (accessed 24 March 2010).
69. Wanniski, J. (2003) Civilian war deaths in Iraq, available from: http://personal.rhul.ac.uk/uhte/014/Wanniski %2037,000%20Dead.html (accessed 24 March 2010).