The new problem of arctic stability

Survival

Volumn 51, Issue 5, 2009, Pages 121-142

  Blunden, Margaret ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WESTMINSTER   (United Kingdom)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 77950781399     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396330903309899     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. A point emphasised by Dmitry Medvedev, Speech at Meeting of the Russian Security Council on Protecting Russia's Interests in the Arctic, 17 September 2008, Kremlin, Moscow, http://www.kremlin.ru/emg/text/speeches/2008/09/17/1945_type-82912type82913_206564_shtml.
2. Donald. L. Gautier et al., 'Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic', Science, vol. 324, no. 5,931, 29 May 2009, pp. 1175-9.
3. See 'Güterstrom durch dünes Eis', Die Welt, 23 September 2007
4. See http://blogs.reuters.com/environment/2009/08/22/climate-change-opens-arcticsnortheast-passage/.
5. Arctic warming, at present caused largely by factors outside the region, has worldwide implications for ocean circulation, for global and regional climate, for rising sea levels and for biodiversity.
6. See Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Impacts of a Warming Arctic (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).
7. In 1996 the military authorities of Norway, Russia and the United States inaugurated the Arctic Military Environmental Collaboration (AMEC), which was joined in 2003 by the United Kingdom. The European Union, which extended its territory into the Arctic Circle (though not to the Arctic Ocean), with the accession of Sweden and Finland, is an equal partner with Russia, Norway and Iceland in the new Northern Dimension put in place in 2007. (Greenland, although formally part of Denmark, has Home Rule and withdrew from membership of the European Economic Community in 1985.).
8. See Pami Aalto, Helge Blakkisrud and Hanna Smith (eds), The New Northern Dimension of the European Neighbourhood (Brussels: Centre for European Policy Studies, 2008).
9. Cooperation in the Barents Euro-Arctic region, initiated in 1993, and now operating across four countries and 13 Nordic and northwest Russian regions, promotes collaboration in business, sustainable environment, human resources, the interests of indigenous peoples, transport and infrastructure. The Arctic Council, an intergovernmental organisation operating on a modest mandate established by the Ottawa Declaration of 1996, promotes collaboration, particularly in sustainable development and environmental protection, among the eight countries with territory within the Arctic Circle (the five littoral states plus Iceland, Sweden and Finland). Bilateral collaboration - environmental, technical and commercial - has developed strongly, particularly between Russia and Norway.
10. UNCLOS allows littoral states to extend the 200nm exclusive economic zone off their shoreline, with control of and extraction rights on the seabed, if they can provide scientific evidence that the continental shelf beyond that limit is a natural extension of their territory. All the coastal states are now gathering such evidence. The United States has not formally rati-fied UNCLOS (it has been blocked by determined opposition in the Senate) but successive administrations have recognised most of its provisions as customary international law.
11. Rosemary Rayfuse, 'Warm Waters and Cold Shoulders: Jostling for Jurisdiction in Polar Oceans', University of New South Wales Faculty of Law Research Series, updated 12 December 2008, http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/journals/UNSWLRS/2008/56.html.
12. European Parliament resolution of 9 October 2008 on Arctic Governance, B6-0523/2008, available at http://www.europarl.eu/.
13. Medvedev, Speech at Meeting of the Russian Security Council.
14. Pavel Baev, Russia's Race for the Arctic and the New Geopolitics of the North Pole (Washington DC: The Jamestown Foundation, 2007).
15. Kristian Åtland, Interstate Relations in the Arctic: Conflict and Cooperation Potential (Oslo: Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, 2009).
16. Katarzyna Zysk, 'Russia's National Security Strategy to 2020', Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, Oslo, 2009, available at http://www.geopoliticsnorth.org/.
17. Yuri Golotyuk, 'Safeguarding the Arctic', Russia in Global Affairs, no. 3, July-September 2008.
18. Russia and the Arctic: The New Great Game in Russia and the Arctic', in Mark A. Smith and Keir Giles (eds), The Last Dash North (Shrivenham: UK Defence Academy, Advanced Research and Assessment Group, 2007).
19. Scott G. Borgerson, 'Arctic Meltdown: The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming', Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 2, March-April 2008, pp. 63-77.
20. Jonas Støre, 'Current Strategic Challenges in the High North', statement at NATO seminar, Reykavik, 29 January 2009, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, http://www/regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/about.mfa/minister-of-foreign-affairs-jonasgahr-s/Speeches.
21. Jakub M. Godzimirski, High Stakes in the High North: Russian-Norwegian Relations and their Implications for the EU, IFRI Russia NIS Center Visions no. 25 (Paris: IFRI, 2007), p. 9/24.
22. Rob Huebert, 'Renaissance in Canadian Arctic Security?', Canadian Military Journal, vol. 6, no. 4, Winter 2005-06, p. 17.
23. Department of National Defence and the Canadian Forces, Canada First Defence Strategy, 12 May 2008, http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/focus/firstpremier/index-eng.asp.
24. Peter McKay, News Release, 'Government of Canada Announces Location of Satellite Reception Ground Stations for Polar Epsilon', 30 March 2009, http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/news-nouvelles/view-news-affichernouvelles-eng.asp?id=2930.
25. Andrew Mayeda, 'Forces Eye Aerial Drone Purchase', National Post, 26 May 2009, http://www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/story.html?id=1631149.
26. Quoted in 'Harper Wary of Russia's Unilateral Moves to Secure its Strategic Interests', Canadian American Strategic Review, http://www.casr.ca/as-arcticsovereignty-capabilities-1.htm.
27. Canada-Russia: A New Cold War of Words', Embassy, 29 April 2009, http://www.embassymag.ca/mobile/story/canada_russia_cold_war_words-4-29-2009.
28. Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada, The Northern Dimension of Canada's Foreign Policy (Ottawa, 2008), p. 9, http://www.international.gc.ca/polarpolaire/ndfp-vnpe2.aspx.
29. National Security Presidential Directive NSPD-66, White House, 9 January 2009.
30. Rob Huebert, 'United States Arctic Policy: The Reluctant Arctic Power', University of Calgary, School of Public Policy, SPP Briefing Paper, vol. 3, no. 2, May 2009.
31. 'US Missile Defense Salvage Operations Under Way', News Daily, 9 June 2009.
32. Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, 'North Korea's Nuclear Test Forces Obama's Administration to Rethink Cutting', 26 May 2009, http://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org/news.aspx?news_id=1794.
33. NATO Parliamentary Assembly, 'NATO Parliamentary Assembly Discusses Alliance Role in the High North', 23 May 2009, http://www.natopa.int/Default.asp?SHORTCUT=1842.
34. Jaap De Hoop Scheffer, Speech on Security Prospects for the High North, Reykavik, 29 January 2009, http://www.nato.int/docu/speech/2009/s090129a.html.
35. Gerard O'Dwyer, 'Sweden Pushes for more Nordic Cooperation', Defense News, 2 June 2008.
36. Declaration, Meeting of the Ministers for Foreign Affairs of the Nordic Countries, Reykavik, 8-9 June 2009.
37. Jonas Støre, 'The High North - Challenges and Opportunities: Perspective on Norwegian-Russian Co-operation', speech at the Diplomatic Academy, Moscow, 24 March 2009, Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, http://www.regjeringen.no/en/dep/ud/about_mfa/minister-of-foreign-affairs-jonasgahr-s/Speeches-and-articles/2009/the-high-north--challenges-andopportuni.html?id=550795/.
38. Espen Barth Eide address to NATO Parliamentary Assembly, 23 May 2009.
39. Quoted in David Pugliese and Gerard O'Dwyer, 'Canada, Russia Build Arctic Forces', Defense News, 6 April 2009, http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4025065.
40. Mia Bennett, 'NATO-Russia Council - a Forum for Arctic Talks', 28 May 2009, http://arcticforeignpolicyblogs.com/2009/05/28/.
41. O'Dwyer, 'Sweden Pushes for more Nordic Cooperation'.
42. Elana Wilson Rowe, 'Russian Regional Multilateralism: The Case of the Arctic Council', in Elana Wilson Rowe and Stina Torjesen (eds), The Multilateral Dimension of Russian Foreign Policy (Abingdon: Routledge, 2008), p. 150.
43. 'Introduction', in Pami Aalto, Helge Blakkisrud and Hanna Smith (eds), The New Northern Dimension of the European Neighbourhood (Brussels: Centre for European Policy Studies, 2008), p. 9.
44. Sven G. Holtsmark, 'Towards Cooperation or Confrontation? Security in the High North', NATO Defense College, Rome, research paper no. 45, February 2009.
45. Julianne Smith, The NATO-Russia Relationship: Defining Moment or Déjà Vu (Washington DC: Centre for Strategic Studies and Paris: Institut Français des Relations Internationales, 2008).
46. Roger McDermott, 'Russia Planning Arctic Military Grouping', Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 6, no. 72, 15 April 2009.
47. For example, when the British energy company BP claimed that it had been forced to scale back production because its Russian partner Gazprom had denied it export routes for the gas, Prime Minister Tony Blair raised the issue at the 2007 G8 summit, and Peter Mandelson, at that time European Trade Commissioner, attempted to intervene in the dispute.
48. Nicholas Watson, 'Russia Could Squeeze Out Extra 77 bn Plus Barrels of Oil', Russia Profile, 19 November 2008, http://www.russiaprofile.org/page.php?padeid+Business+New+Europe&articleid=al1227089468. The average US oil-recovery rate is 38%, that of Russia 23%.
49. 'Canada-Russia: A New Cold War of Words'.
50. See David A. Ridenour, 'Ratification of the Law of the Sea Treaty: a Notso-innocent Passage', National Policy Analysis (Washington DC: National Center for Public Policy Research, 2006).
51. Ridenour fears that ratification would give environmentalists a blunt instrument to use against the energy sector.
52. For the importance of this point, see Timo Koivurova, 'Alternatives for an Arctic Treaty - Evaluation and a New Proposal', Review of European Community and International Environmental Law, vol. 17, no. 1, April 2008, pp. 14-26.
53. Huebert, 'United States Arctic Policy'.
54. National Security Presidential Directive, NSPD-66.
55. Commission of the European Communities, The European Union and the Arctic, Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council, Brussels, 20 November 2008, COM (2008) 763 final.
56. Doug Saunders, 'Hands Off Our Arctic', Globe and Mail, 16 May 2009.
57. Commission of the European Communities, The European Union and the Arctic.
58. Oran R. Young, 'Whither the Arctic? Conflict or Cooperation in the Circumpolar North', Polar Record, vol. 45, no. 1, 2009, p. 80.
59. Hans Corell, 'The Arctic: An Opportunity to Cooperate and to Demonstrate Statesmanship', Symposium hosted by the Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law, Nashville, Tennessee, 6 February 2009.