Transmission dynamics and underreporting of Kala-azar in the Indian state of Bihar

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 262, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 177-185

  Mubayi, Anuj ^a,b,d   Castillo Chavez, Carlos ^a,c   Chowell, Gerardo ^a   Kribs Zaleta, Christopher ^b   Ali Siddiqui, Niyamat ^e   Kumar, Narendra ^e   Das, Pradeep ^e  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT ARLINGTON   (United States)

^c SANTA FE INSTITUTE   (United States)

^d PREVENTION RESEARCH CENTER   (United States)

^e RAJENDRA MEMORIAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF MEDICAL SCIENCES   (India)

Author keywords

Leishmaniasis; Mathematical model; Private health care providers; Public health surveillance systems; Reproduction number

Indexed keywords

DISEASE PREVALENCE; HEALTH CARE; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; LEISHMANIASIS; MORTALITY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PUBLIC HEALTH;

ARTICLE; HIGH RISK POPULATION; INDIA; INFORMATION PROCESSING; LEISHMANIASIS; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; PARASITE INCIDENCE; PARASITE PREVALENCE; PARASITE TRANSMISSION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIOLOGY; GEOGRAPHY; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; METHODOLOGY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RISK FACTOR; STANDARD; STATISTICAL MODEL; UNCERTAINTY; VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS;

BIHAR; INDIA;

NASO HEXACANTHUS;

BIAS (EPIDEMIOLOGY); DISEASE SUSCEPTIBILITY; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; INDIA; LEISHMANIASIS, VISCERAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RESEARCH DESIGN; RISK FACTORS; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 76449112453     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.09.012     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Alvar J., Bashaye S., Argaw D., Cruz I., Aparicio P., Kassa A., Orfanos G., Parre-o F., Babaniyi O., Gudeta N., Caavate C., Bern C. Kala-azar outbreak in libo kemkem, Ethiopia: epidemiologic and parasitologic assessment. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 2007, 77:275-282.
2. Bacaer N., Guernaoui S. The epidemic threshold of vector-borne diseases with seasonality: the case of cutaneous leishmaniasis in chichaoua, Morocco. J. Math. Biol. 2006, 53(3):421-436.
3. Badaro R., Jones T.C., Carvalho E.M., Sampaio D., Reed S.G., Barral A., Teixeira R., Johnson W.D.J. New perspectives on a subclinical form of visceral leishmaniasis. J. Infect. Dis. 1986, 154(6):1003-1011.
4. Badaro R., Jones T.C., Loreno R., Cerf B.J., Sampaio D., Carvalho E.M., Rocha H., Teixeira R., Johnson W.D.J. A prospective study of visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic area of Brazil. J. Infect. Dis. 1986, 154(4):639-649.
5. Bhattacharya S.K., Sinha P.K., Sundar S., Thakur C.P., Jha T.K., Pandey K., Das V.R., Kumar N., Lal C., Verma N., Singh V.P., Ranjan A., Verma R.B., Anders G., Sindermann H., Ganguly N.K. Phase 4 trial of miltefosine for the treatment of Indian visceral leishmaniasis. J. Infect. Dis. 2007, 196:591-598.
6. Blower S.M., Dowlatabadi H. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. Int. Statist. Rev. 1994, 2:229-243.
7. Bora D. Epidemiology of visceral leishmaniasis in India. Natl. Med. J. India 1999, 12:62-68.
8. Burattini M.N., Coutinho F.A.B., Lopez L.F., Massad E. Modeling the dynamics of leishmaniasis considering human, animal host and vector populations. J. Biol. Syst. 1998, 6(4):337-356.
9. Cattand, P., Desjeux, P., Guzmn, M.G.J., Jannin, A.K., Mdici, A., Musgrove, P., Nathan, M.B., Shaw, A., Schofield, C.J., 2006. Tropical diseases lacking adequate control measures: dengue, leishmaniasis, and African trypanosomiasis. In: Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries, second ed. Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 451-466.
10. Census of India, 2001. Statistics of Bihar. Census of India.
11. Chakraborty S., Dutta M., Srivastava L., Barui K.C., Mandal S.P. Current outbreaks of kala-azar in malda and murshidabad districts of West Bengal-an epidemiological evaluation. J. Commun. Dis. 1982, 14(4):263-273.
12. Chaves L.F., Hernandez M.J. Mathematical modelling of American cutaneous leishmaniasis: incidental hosts and threshold conditions for infection persistence. Acta Trop. 2004, 92:245-252.
13. Chowell G., Castillo-Chavez C., Fenimore P.W., Kribs-Zaleta C., Arriola L., Hyman J.M. Model parameters and outbreak control for sars. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2004, 10(7):1258-1263.
14. Chowell G., Diaz-Duenas P., Miller J.C., Alcazar-Velazco A., Hyman J.M., Fenimore P.W., Castillo-Chavez C. Estimation of the reproduction number of dengue fever from spatial epidemic data. Math. Biosci. 2007, 208(2):571-578.
15. Courtenay O., Quinnell R.J., Garcez L.M., Shaw J.J., Dye C. Infectiousness in a cohort of Brazilian dogs: why culling fails to control visceral leishmaniasis in areas of high transmission. J. Infect. Dis. 2002, 186:1314-1320.
16. De La Pava, E., 2006. Modelacion mathematica de la participacion del humano como reservorio de la leishmania (viannia) en el pacifico de columbia. Ph.D. Thesis, Universidad Del Valle, Columbia.
17. Deshingkar P., Kumar S., Chobey H.K., Kumar D. The Role of Migration and Remittances in Promoting Livelihoods in Bihar 2006, Overseas Development Institute, London.
18. Desjeux P. Global control and leishmania HIV co-infection. Clin. Dermatol. 1999, 17(3):317-325.
19. Dye C. Leishmaniasis epidemiology: theory catches up. Parasitology 1992, 104:S7-S18.
20. Dye C. The logic of visceral leishmaniasis control. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 1996, 55(2):125-130.
21. Dye C., Wolpert D.M. Earthquakes, influenza and cycles of Indian kala-azar. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 1988, 82(6):843-850.
22. Esteva L., Vargas C. Analysis of a dengue disease transmission model. Math. Biosci. 1998, 150:131-151.
23. Feng Z., Xu D., Zhao W. Epidemiological models with non-exponentially distributed disease stages and applications to disease control. Bull. Math. Biol. 2007, 69:1511-1536.
24. Ferro C., Crdenas E., Corredor D., Morales A., Munstermann L.E. Life cycle and fecundity analysis of lutzomyia shannoni (dyar) (diptera: Psychodidae). Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz Rio de Janeiro 1998, 93(2):195-199.
25. Garg R., Dube A. Animal models for vaccine studies for visceral leishmaniasis. Ind. J. Med. Res. 2006, 123:439-454.
26. Guerin P., Olliaro P., Sundar S., Boelaert M., Croft S.L., Desjeux P., Wasunna M.K., Bryceson A.D. Visceral leishmaniasis: current status of control diagnosis, and treatment, and a proposed research and development agenda. Lancet Infect. Dis. 2002, 2:494-501.
27. Herwaldt B. Leishmaniasis. Lancet 1999, 354:1191-1199.
28. Koella J., Boete C. A model for the coevolution of immunity and immune evasion in vector-borne diseases with implications for the epidemiology of malaria. Am. Nat. 2003, 161:698-707.
29. Marwaha M., Sarode S., Gupta R.K., Garewal G., Dash S. Clinico-hematological characteristics in patients with kala azar. Trop. Geographical Med. 1991, 43:357-362.
30. Molina R., Gradoni L., Alvar J. HIV and the transmission of leishmania. Ann. Trop. Med. Parasitol. 2003, 97(Suppl. no. 1):S29-S45.
31. National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme, January 2009. http://www.nvbdcp.nic.in.
32. Palatnik-De-Sousa C.B., Batista-De-Melo L.M., Borja-Cabrera G.P., Palatnik M., Lavor C.C. Improving methods for epidemiological control of canine visceral leishmaniasis based on a mathematical model. Impact on the incidence of the canine and human disease. An. Acad. Bras. Cienc. 2004, 76(3):583-593.
33. Ranjan A., Sur D., Singh V.P., Siddique N.A., Manna B., Lal C.S., Sinha P.K., Kishore K., Bhattacharya S.K. Risk factors for Indian kala-azar. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 2005, 73(1):74-78.
34. Roberts M.T.M. Current understandings on the immunology of leishmaniasis and recent developments in prevention and treatment. Br. Med. Bull. 2006, 75-76:115-130.
35. Sacks D.L., Perkins P.V. Identification of an infective stage of leishmania promastigotes. Science 1984, 223:1417-1419.
36. Sacks D.L., Perkins P.V. Development of infective stage leishmania promastigotes within phlebotomine sand flies. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 1985, 34:456-459.
37. Singh R.K., Pandey H.P., Sundar S. Visceral leishmaniasis (kala-azar): challenges ahead. Indian J. Med. Res. 2006, 123:331-344.
38. Singh S.P., Reddy D.C.S., Rai M., Sundar S. Serious underreporting of visceral leishmaniasis through passive case reporting in Bihar, India. Trop. Med. Int. Health 2006, 11(6):899-905.
39. Srinivasan R., Panicker K.N. Laboratory observations on the biology of the phlebotomid sandfly, phlebotomus papatasi. Southeast Asian J. Trop. Med. Public Health 1993, 24(3):536-539.
40. Stoddard S.T., Morrison A.C., Vazquez-Prokopec G.M., Soldan V.P., Kochel T.J., Kitron U., Elder J.P., Scott T.W. The role of human movement in the transmission of vector-borne pathogens. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 2009, 3(7):e481.
41. Sud A., Varma N., Marwaha R.K., Patel F.M., Trehan A., Singh S., Varma S. Visceral leishmaniasis in a non-endemic area of India. Trop. Doctor 2004, 34(4):247-249.
42. Sundar S. Drug resistance in Indian visceral leishmaniasis. Trop. Med. Int. Health 2001, 6(11):849-854.
43. Sundar S. Indian kala-azar-better tools needed for diagnosis and treatment. J. Postgraduate Med. 2003, 49(1):29-30.
44. Sundar S., Jha T.K., Thakur C.P., Sinha P.K., Bhattacharya S.K. Injectable paromomycin for visceral leishmaniasis in India. NEJM 2007, 356:2571-2581.
45. Sundar S., Mondal D., Rijal S., Bhattacharya S., Ghalib H., Kroeger A., Boelaert M., Desjeux P., Richter-Airijoki H., Harms G. Implementation research to support the initiative on the elimination of kala azar from Bangladesh, India and Nepal-the challenges for diagnosis and treatment. Trop. Med. Int. Health 2008, 13(1):2-5.
46. Sundar, S., Thakur, B.B., Tandon, A.K., Agrawal, N.R., Mishra, C.P., Mahapatra, T.M., Singh, V.P., 1994. Clinicoepidemiological study of drug resistance in Indian kala-azar. BMJ, 308-307.
47. The Times of India, 2008. The Times of India. Scientists find kala-azar protein, April 27. Online newspaper article.
48. van den Driessche P., Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math. Biosci. 2002, 180:29-48.
49. Williams B.G., Dye C. Infectious disease persistence when transmission varies seasonally. Math. Biosci. 1997, 145(1):77-88.
50. Wonham M., Lewis M., Renclawowicz J., van den Driessche P. Conflicting predictions arise from underlying assumptions in host-vector disease models: a case study in West Nile Virus dynamics. Ecol. Lett. 2006, 9:706-772.
51. The World Bank (2001). India, raising the sights: better health systems for India's poor. Health, Nutrition, Population Sector Unit, India, South Asia Region. Report November 3.
52. World Health Organization, 1996. Manual of Visceral Leishmaniasis Control.
53. World Health Organization, 1998. Leishmania & HIV in Gridlock. WHO/Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva.
54. World Health Organization, 2002. World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life.
55. World Health Organization, 2003. World Health Report 2003: Shaping the future.
56. World Health Organization, 2004a. The Leishmaniases and Leishmania/HIV co-infections: WHO Fact sheet No. 116.
57. World Health Organization, 2004b. Control of Leishmaniasis. Report of a WHO Expert Committee.
58. World Health Organization, 2004c. Report of the Scientific Working Group meeting on Leishmaniasis.