Forecasting Elections: Comparing prediction markets, polls, and their biases

Public Opinion Quarterly

Volumn 73, Issue 5, 2009, Pages 895-916

  Rothschild, David ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 76149091553     PISSN: 0033362X     EISSN: 15375331     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfp082     Document Type: Article

References (11)

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2. Campbell, James E. 2000. The American Campaign. College Station: Texas A&M University Press.
3. Erikson, Robert S., and Christopher Wlezien. 2002. "The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns." The Journal of Politics 64(4):969-993
4. ---. 2008. "Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?" Public Opinion Quarterly 72:190-221
5. Fair, Ray, and Robert Shiller. 1989. "The Informational Content of ex-Ante Forecasts." Review of Economics and Statistics 71(2):325-331
6. ---. 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts From Econometric Models" American Economic Review 80(3):375-389
7. Leigh, Andrew, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz. 2007. "Is There a Favorite-Longshot Bias in Election Markets?" Preliminary version presented at the 2007 UC Riverside Conference on Prediction Markets, Riverside, CA, USA.
8. Manski, Charles F. 2005. "Interpreting the Predictions of Prediction Markets." NBER Working Paper No. 10359.
9. Snowberg, Erik, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz. 2007. "Party Influence in Congress and the Economy." Quarterly Journal of Political Science 2:277-286
10. Wolfers, Justin, and Eric Zitzewitz. 2004. "PredictionMarkets." Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2):107-126
11. ---. 2007. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities." NBERWorking Paper No. 12200.