Evaluating long term forecasts

Energy Economics

Volumn 32, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 450-457

  Lady, George M ^a  

^a TEMPLE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Forecast evaluation; Model approximation; Pseudo data

Indexed keywords

ALTERNATIVE APPROACH; COMMERCIAL SECTOR; COMPUTER-BASED MODELS; ELECTRICITY-CONSUMPTION; ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION; ENERGY PRODUCTIONS; EXOGENOUS VARIABLES; FORECAST EVALUATION; HARDWARE CONFIGURATIONS; LONG-TERM FORECAST; MODEL ASSUMPTIONS; PRACTICAL PROBLEMS; U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY;

REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; DATABASE; ELECTRICITY SUPPLY; ENERGY MARKET; ENERGY USE; ESTIMATION METHOD; FORECASTING METHOD; NATURAL GAS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

EID: 74149090059     PISSN: 01409883     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.10.006     Document Type: Article

References (13)

1. Baghelai C., Moumem F., Cohen M., Kydes A., and Harris C. Uncertainty in the National Energy Modeling System I: model development. Journal of Energy Engineering 121 3 (1995) 108-124
2. Baghelai C., Moumem F., Cohen M., Kydes A., and Harris C. Uncertainty in the National Energy Modeling System II: analysis results. Journal of Energy Engineering 121 3 (1995) 125-148
3. Buck A., and Lady G. Approximation of large, computer-based economic models. Presented at the International Atlantic Economic Society Conference, New York, NY, October 9, 2005 (2005). http://optima-com.com/ASA_April_2007/Buck_Lady_AES_Final.htm http://optima-com.com/ASA_April_2007/Buck_Lady_AES_Final.htm
4. EIA. Model Documentation Report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System (1999) DOE/EIA-M065(2000), December 1999
5. EIA. The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2003, Report #: DOE/EIA-0581(2003) (2003). http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview/pdf/0581(2003).pdf http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview/pdf/0581(2003).pdf
6. EIA. Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with Projections to 2030, Report #: DOE/EIA-0393(2007) (2007) February 2007
7. EIA. Annual Energy Outlook Retrospective Review: Evaluation of Projections in Past Editions (1982-2006) (2007) Report #: DOE/EIA-0640(2006), March 2007
8. EIA. Integrating Module of the National Energyh Modeling System 2009 Model Documentation, Report #: DOE/EIA-M057(2009), May 2009 (2009). http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m057(2009).pdf http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/modeldoc/m057(2009).pdf
9. FEA. Project Independence Report, Federal Energy Administration, GPO Stock Number 4118-00029, November 1974 (1974)
10. Griffen J.M. Long-run production modeling with pseudo data: electric power generation. Bell Journal of Economics 8 (1977) 112-127
11. Lady G., and Moody C. Forecasting marginal costs of a multiple-output production technology. Journal of Forecasting 12 (1993) 421-436
12. Wade, Steven, 2003. Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector, DOE/EIA. Although not serialized as an EIA publication, this report is available from EIA on-line at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/elasticity/pdf/buildings.pdf
13. Winebrake J., and Sakva D. An evaluation of errors in US energy forecasts: 1982-2003. Energy Policy 34 (2006) 3475-3483 August 2005