The young, the old, and the restless: Demographics and business cycle volatility

American Economic Review

Volumn 99, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 804-826

  Jaimovich, Nir ^a,b   Siu, Henry E ^c  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 73649149079     PISSN: 00028282     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1257/aer.99.3.804     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Abraham, Katherine G., and Robert Shimer. 2001. "Changes in Unemployment Duration and Labor-Force Attachment." In the Roaring Nineties: can Full Employment Be Sustained? ed. Alan B. Krueger and Robert M. Solow, 367-420. New York: Century Foundation Press.
2. Arias, Andres, Gary D. Hansen, and Lee Ohanian. 2007. "Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile?" Economic Theory, 32(1):43-58.
3. Baxter, Marianne, and Robert G. King. 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series." Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4):575-93.
4. Bernanke, Ben S. 2004. "The Great Moderation. " Paper presented at the meeting of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC. http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2004/20040220/default.htm.
5. Blanchard, Olivier, and John Simon. 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U. S. Output Volatility." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 135-64.
6. Burnside, Craig. 2000. "Some Facts About the HP Filter." Unpublished.
7. Campbell, Jeffrey R., and Zvi Hercowitz. 2005. "The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomic Stabilization. " National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 11330.
8. Christiano, Lawrence J., and Terry J. Fitzgerald. 2003. "The Band Pass Filter." International Economic Review, 44(2):435-65.
9. Clarida, Richard, Jordi Galí, and Mark Gertler. 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory." Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1):147-80.
10. Clark, Kim B., and Lawrence H. Summers. 1981. "Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation. " Journal of Human Resources, 16(1):61-79.
11. Comin, Diego, and Mark Gertler. 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles." American Economic Review, 96(3):523-51.
12. Feyrer, James. 2007. "Demographics and Productivity." Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1):100-109.
13. Fisher, Jonas D. M., and Martin Gervais. 2007. "First-Time Home Buyers and Residential Investment Volatility." Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Working Paper WP-07-15.
14. Gomme, Paul, Richard Rogerson, Peter Rupert, and Randall Wright. 2005. "The Business Cycle and the Life Cycle." In National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 2004. Vol. 19, ed. Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, 415-61. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
15. Hoynes, Hilary W. 2000. "The Employment, Earnings, and Income of Less Skilled Workers over the Business Cycle." In Finding Jobs: Work and Welfare Reform, ed. David E. Card and Rebecca M. Blank, 23-71. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
16. Jaimovich, Nir, and Henry E. Siu. 2007. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility." Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 387.
17. Jaimovich, Nir, Seth Pruitt, and Henry E. Siu. 2008. "The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle and the Great Moderation. " http://www.econ. ubc.ca/siu/research/jps200811.pdf.
18. Justiniano, Alejandro, and Giorgio E. Primiceri. 2008. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations." American Economic Review, 98(3):604-41.
19. Kim, Chang-Jin, and Charles R. Nelson. 1999. "Has the U. S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle." Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(4):608-16.
20. Kydland, Finn E., and Edward C. Prescott. 1993. "Cyclical Movements of the Labor Input and Its Implicit Real Wage." Economic Review, 29(2):12-23.
21. McConnell, Margaret M., and Gabriel Perez-Quiros. 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?" American Economic Review, 90(5):1464-76.
22. Mitchell, Brian R. 2003a. International Historical Statistics: Europe, 1754-2000. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
23. Mitchell, Brian R. 2003b. International Historical Statistics: The Americas, 1750-2000. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
24. Moser, James W. 1986. "Demographic and Time Patterns in Layoffs and Quits." Journal of Human Resources, 21(2):178-99.
25. Nagypál, Éva. 2005. "The Business Cycle and the Life Cycle: Comment." In National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 2004. Vol. 19, ed. Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, 462-77. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
26. Ramey, Garey, and Valerie A. Ramey. 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth." American Economic Review, 85(5):1138-51.
27. Ramey, Valerie A., and Daniel J. Vine. 2006. "Declining Volatility in the U. S. Automobile Industry." American Economic Review, 96(5):1876-89.
28. Ravn, Morten O., and Harald Uhlig. 2002. "On Adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter for the Frequency of Observations." Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(2):371-76.
29. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor. 1996. "Life-Cycle Economies and Aggregate Fluctuations." Review of Economic Studies, 63(3):465-89.
30. Shimer, Robert. 1999. "Why Is the U. S. Unemployment Rate So Much Lower?" In National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 1998. Vol. 13, ed. Ben S. Bernanke and Julio J. Rotemberg, 11-61. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
31. Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?" In National Bureau of Economic Research Macroeconomics Annual 2004. Vol. 19, ed. Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, 159-218. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
32. Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson. 2005. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics." Journal of the European Economic Association, 3(5):968-1006.