Potential changes in monthly fire risk in the eastern Canadian boreal forest under future climate change

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Volumn 39, Issue 12, 2009, Pages 2369-2380

  le Goff, Héloïse ^a,b   Flannigan, Mike D ^b   Bergeron, Yves ^c  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

^b GREAT LAKES FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

^c UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC EN ABITIBI TÉMISCAMINGUE   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CANADIAN BOREAL FOREST; CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS; FIRE ACTIVITY; FIRE RISKS; FIRE WEATHER INDEX; FOREST FIRES; FUTURE CLIMATE; INTERANNUAL VARIATION; POTENTIAL CHANGE; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; SUSTAINABLE FOREST MANAGEMENT; WEATHER CONDITIONS;

DEFORESTATION; FIRES; METEOROLOGY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK PERCEPTION;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ANNUAL VARIATION; BOREAL FOREST; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; FOREST FIRE; FOREST MANAGEMENT; REGIONAL CLIMATE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY;

DEFORESTATION; FOREST FIRES; METEOROLOGY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SEASONAL VARIATION;

CANADA;

EID: 72649098370     PISSN: 00455067     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/X09-153     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Amiro, B.D., Stocks, B.J., Alexander, M.E., Flannigan, M.D., and Wotton, B.M. 2001. Fire, climate change, carbon and fuel management in the Canadian boreal forest. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 10(4): 405-413. doi:10.1071/WF01038.
2. Arbaugh, M.J., and Peterson, D.L. 1989. Variable selection in den-droclimatology: an example using simulated tree-ring series. For. Sci. 35: 294-302.
3. Armstrong, G.W. 2004. Sustainability of timber supply considering the risk of wildfire. For. Sci. 50(5): 626-639.
4. Balshi, M.S., McGuire, A.D., Duffy, P., Flannigan, M., Walsh, J., and Melillo, J. 2009. Assessing the response of area burned to changing climate in western boreal North America using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) approach. Glob. Change Biol. 15(3): 578-600. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01679.x.
5. Bergeron, Y., and Flannigan, M.D. 1995. Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the southeastern Canadian boreal forest. Water Air Soil Pollut. 82(1-2): 437-444. doi:10. 1007/BF01182853.
6. Bergeron, Y., Cyr, D., Drever, C.R., Flannigan, M., Gauthier, S., Kneeshaw, D., Lauzon, E., Leduc, A., Le Goff, H., Lesieur, D., and Logan, K. 2006. Past, current, and future fire frequencies in Quebec's commercial forests: Implications for the cumulative effects of harvesting and fire on age-class structure and natural disturbance-based management. Can. J. For. Res. 36(11): 2737-2744. doi:10.1139/X06-177
7. Bernstein, L., Bosch, P., Canziani, O., Chen, Z., Christ, R., Davidson, O., Hare, W., and Huq, S. Karoly, D., Kattsov, V., Kundzewicz, Z., Liu, J., Lohmann, U., Manning, M., Matsuno, T., Menne, B., Metz, B., Mirza, M., Nicholls, N., Nurse, L., Pachauri, R., Palutikof, J., Parry, M., Qin, D., Ravindranath, N., Reisinger, A., Ren, J., Riahi, K., Rosenzweig, C., Rusticucci, M., Schneider, S., Sokona, Y., Solomon, S., Stott, P., Stouffer, R., Sugiyama, T., Swart, R., Tirpak, D., Vogel, C., and Yohe, G. 2007. Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf (last accessed on August 2008).
8. Bessie, W.C., and Johnson, E.A. 1995. The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behaviour in subalpine forests. Ecology, 76(3): 747-762. doi:10.2307/1939341.
9. Blanchet, P. 2003. Forest fires: the story of a war. Cantos International Publishing, Montreal, Que., Canada.
10. Borchers, J.G. 2005. Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology. For. Ecol. Manage. 211(1-2): 36-46. doi:10.1016/j. foreco.2005.01.025
11. Boychuk, D., and Martell, D.L. 1996. A multistage stochastic programming model for sustainable forest-level timber supply under risk of fire. For. Sci. 42(1): 10-29.
12. Brumelle, S., Stanbury, W.T., Thompson, W.A., Vertinsky, I., and Wehrung, G. 1990. Framework for the analysis of risks in forest management and silvicultural investments. For. Ecol. Manage. 36(2-4): 279-299. doi:10.1016/0378-1127(90)90031-6.
13. Burton, I. 1998. Climate adaptation policies for Canada? Options politiques. May: 6-10.
14. Carcaillet, C., Bergeron, Y., Richard, P.J.H., Fréchette, B., Gauthier, S., and Prairie, Y.T. 2001. Change of fire frequency in the eastern Canadian boreal forests during the Holocene: Does vegetation composition or climate trigger the fire regime? J. Ecol. 89(6): 930-946. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2001.00614.x.
15. Christensen, J.H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R.K., Kwon, W.-T., Laprise, R., Magan ̃a Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C.G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., and Whetton, P. 2007. Regional climate projections. In Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
16. Dale, V.H., Joyce, L.A., McNulty, S., Neilson, R.P., Ayres, M.P., Flannigan, M.D., Hanson, P.J., Irland, L.C., Lugo, A.E., Peterson, C.J., Simberloff, D., Swanson, F.J., Stocks, B.J., and Wotton, B.M. 2001. Climate change and forest disturbance. BioScience,51(9):723-734. doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2001)051[0723:CCAFD]2.0.CO;2.
17. Didion, M., Fortin, M.-J., and Fall, A. 2007. Forest age structure as indicator of boreal forest sustainability under alternative management and fire regimes: a landscape level sensitivity analysis. Ecol. Model. 200(1-2): 45-58. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.07. 011.
18. Drever, R.C., Drever, M.C., Messier, C., Bergeron, Y., and Flannigan, M. 2008. Fire and the relative role of weather, climate and land-scape characrteristics in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence forest of Canada. J. Veg. Sci. 19(1): 57-66. doi:10.3170/2007-8-18313.
19. Drever, C.R., Bergeron, Y., Drever, M.C., Flannigan, M., Logan, T., and Messier, C. 2009. Effects of climate on occurrence and size of large fires in a northern hardwood landscape: historical trends, future predictions, and implications for climate change in Témiscamingue, Québec. Appl. Veg. Sci. 12(3): 261-272. doi:10.1111/j.1654-109X.2009.01035.x.
20. Environment Canada. 2004. Canadian climate normals [online]. Available from climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climate_normals/ index_e.html?& [last accessed on August 2008].
21. Flannigan, M., Campbell, I., Wotton, M., Carcaillet, C., Richard, P., and Bergeron, Y. 2001. Future fire in Canada's boreal forest: paleoecology results and general circulation model-regional climate model simulations. Can. J. For. Res. 31(5): 854-864. doi:10.1139/cjfr-31-5-854.
22. Flannigan, M.D., Logan, K.A., Amiro, B.D., Skinner, W.R., and Stocks, B.J. 2005. Future area burned in Canada. Clim. Change, 72(1-2): 1-16. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5935-y.
23. Girardin, M.P. 2007. Interannual to decadal changes in area burned in Canada from 1781 to 1982 and the relationship to Northern Hemisphere land temperatures. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 16(5): 557-566. doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2007.00321.x.
24. Girardin, M.P., Raulier, F., Bernier, P.Y., and Tardif, J.C. 2008. Response of tree growth to a changing climate in boreal central Canada: a comparison of empirical, process-based, and hybrid modelling approaches. Ecol. Model. 213(2): 209-228. doi:10. 1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.12.010.
25. Goff, J.A., and Gratch, S. 1946. Low-pressure properties of water from-160 to 212 8F. In Transactions of the American Society of Heating and Ventilating Engineers. Presented at the 52nd Annual Meeting of the American Society of Heating and Ventilating Engineers, New York. pp. 95-122.
26. Hoogstra, M.A., and Schanz, H. 2008. How (un)certain is the future in forestry? A Comparative assessment of uncertainty in the forest and agricultural sector. For. Sci. 54: 316-327.
27. Johnston, M., Williamson, T., Price, D., Spittlehouse, D., Wellstead, A., Gray, P., Scott, D., Askew, S., and Webber, S. 2006. Adapting forest management to the impacts of climate change in Canada. BIOCAP synthesis paper [online]. Available from www.biocap.ca/ [last accessed on August 2008].
28. Krawchuk, M.A., Cumming, S.G., Flannigan, M.D., and Wein, R.W. 2006. Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest. Ecology, 87(2): 458-468. doi:10.1890/05-1021. PMID:16637370.
29. Laprise, R. 2008. Regional climate modelling. J. Comput. Phys. 227(7): 3641-3666. doi:10.1016/j.jcp.2006.10.024.
30. Le Goff, H., Leduc, A., Bergeron, Y., and Flannigan, M.D. 2005. The adaptive capacity of forest management to changing fire regimes in the boreal forest of Quebec. For. Chron. 81: 582-592.
31. Le Goff, H., Flannigan, M.D., Bergeron, Y., and Girardin, M.P. 2007. Historical fire regime shifts related to climate teleconnections in the Waswanipi area, central Quebec, Canada. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 16(5): 607-618. doi:10.1071/WF06151.
32. Le Goff, H., Girardin, M.P., Flannigan, M.D., and Bergeron, Y. 2008. Dendroclimatic inference of wildfire activity in Quebec over the 20th century and implications for natural disturbance-based forest management at the northern limit of the commercial forest. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17(3): 348-362. doi:10.1071/WF07080.
33. Le Goff, H., Flannigan, M., Bergeron, Y., Leduc, A., Gauthier, S., and Logan, K. 2009. Management solution to face climate change, the example of forest fires. In Ecosystem management in the boreal forest. Edited by S. Gauthier, M.-A. Vaillancourt, A. Leduc, L. De Grandpré, D. Kneeshaw, H. Morin, P. Drapeau, and Y. Bergeron. Presses de l'Universite ́ du Québec, Québec, Que., Canada.
34. Mazerolle, M.J. 2006. Improving data analysis in herpetology: using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) to assess the strength of biological hypotheses. Amphib.-Reptilia, 27(2): 169-180. doi:10.1163/156853806777239922.
35. Millar, C.I., Stephenson, N.L., and Stephens, S.L. 2007. Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol. Appl. 17(8): 2145-2151. doi:10.1890/06-1715.1.PMID:18213958.
36. Nakicenovic, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Tae Yong Jung, A., Kram, T., La Rovere, E.L., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.-H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., and Zhou, D. 2007. Emission scenarios [online]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available from http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index. php?idp=0 [last accessed on August 2008].
37. Nitschke, C.R., and Innes, J.L. 2008a. Integrating climate change into forest management in South-Central British Columbia: an assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework. For. Ecol. Manage. 256(3): 313-327. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.04.026.
38. Nitschke, C.R., and Innes, J.L. 2008b. Climatic change and fire potential in South-Central British Columbia, Canada. Glob. Change Biol. 14(4): 841-855. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01517.x.
39. Plummer, D.A., Caya, D., Frigon, A., Côté, H., Giguère, M., Paquin, D., Biner, S., Harvey, R., and De Elia, R. 2006. Climate and climate change over North America as simulated by the Canadian RCM. J. Clim. 19(13): 3112-3132. doi:10.1175/JCLI3769.1.
40. Rahmstorf, S., Cazenave, A., Church, J.A., Hansen, J.E., Keeling, R.F., Parker, D.E., and Somerville, R.C.J. 2007. Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316(5825): 709. doi:10.1126/science.1136843. PMID:17272686.
41. Régniere, J., and Saint-Amant, R. 2008. BioSIM 9-User's Manual. 2008. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Quebec, Que. Inf. Rep. LAU-X-134E.
42. Robitaille, A., and Saucier, J.P. 1998. Paysages régionaux du Québec méridional. Les Publications du Québec, Sainte-Foy, Canada.
43. Rowe, J.S. 1972. Forest regions of Canada. Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ont.
44. SAS Institute Inc. 2000. SAS OnlineDoc, version 8. SAS Institute Inc., Cary, N.C.
45. Stocks, B.J., Mason, J.A., Todd, J.B., Bosch, E.M., Wotton, B.M., Amiro, B.D., Flannigan, M.D., Hirsch, K.G., Logan, K.A., Martell, D.L., and Skinner, W.R. 2003. Large forest fires in Canada, 1959-1997. J. Geophys. Res. 108(D1): 8149. doi:10.1029/2001JD000484.
46. Systat Software, Inc. 2006. SIGMAPLOT 10. San Jose, Calif., USA.
47. Tymstra, C., Flannigan, M.D., Armitage, O.B., and Logan, K. 2007. Impact of climate change on area burned in Alberta's boreal forest. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 16(2): 153-160. doi:10.1071/WF06084.
48. Van Wagner, C.E. 1987. The development and structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index system. For. Tech. Rep. 35, Can. For. Serv., Ottawa, Ont., Canada.
49. Weber, M.G., and Flannigan, M.D. 1997. Canadian boreal forest ecosystem structure and function in a changing climate: impact on fire regimes. Environ. Rev. 5(3-4): 145-166. doi:10.1139/er-5-3-4-145.
50. Wotton, B.M. 2008. Interpreting and using outputs from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System in research. Environ. Ecol. Stat. doi:10.1007/s10651-007-0084-2.
51. Wotton, B.M., and Flannigan, M.D. 1993. Length of the fire season in a changing climate. For. Chron. 69: 187-192.