Probabilistic forecasting of the 3-h ap index

IEEE Transactions on Plasma Science

Volumn 32, Issue 4 I, 2004, Pages 1425-1438

  McPherron, Robert L ^a   Siscoe, George ^b   Arge, Nick ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b BOSTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c AIR FORCE RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EXTRATERRESTRIAL ATMOSPHERES; FORECASTING; GEOMAGNETISM; IONOSPHERE; MAGNETIC FIELDS; MAGNETOSPHERE; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PLASMAS; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; SPACE RESEARCH;

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY; SOLAR CYCLES; SOLAR WIND; SPACE WEATHER;

SOLAR ENERGY;

EID: 7244249930     PISSN: 00933813     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TPS.2004.833387     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. W. D. Gonzalez, "A unified view of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions," Planetary Space Sci., vol. 38, pp. 627-632, 1990.
2. W. D. Gonzalez, B. T. Tsurutani, A. L. C. Gonzalez, E. J. Smith, F. Tang, and S. I. Akasofu, "Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling during intense magnetic storms (1978-1979)," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 94, pp. 8835-8851, 1989.
3. R. K. Burton, R. L. McPherron, and C. T. Russell, "An empirical relationship between interplanetary conditions and Dst," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 80, pp. 4204-4214, 1975.
4. J.-G. Wu and H. Lundstedt, "Neural network modeling of solar wind-magnetosphere interaction," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 102, pp. 14457-14 466, 1997.
5. T. P. O'Brien and R. L. McPherron, "An empirical phase-space analysis of ring current dynamics: Solar wind control of injection and decay," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 105, pp. 7707-7719, 2000.
6. T. P. O'Brien and R. L. McPherron, "Seasonal and diurnal variation of Dst dynamics," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 107, 2002. SMP 3-1 to SMP 3-10.
7. M. Temerin and X. Li, "A new model for the prediction of Dst on the basis of the solar wind," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 107, p. 1472, 2002.
8. C. R. Clauer, R. L. McPherron, C. Searls, and M. G. Kivelson, "Solar wind control of auroral zone geomagnetic activity," Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 8, pp. 915-918, 1981.
9. L. F. Bargatze, D. N. Baker, R. L. McPherron, and E. W. Hones, " Magnetospheric impulse response for many levels of geomagnetic activity," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 90, pp. 6387-6394, 1985.
10. D. Vassiliadis, A. J. Klimas, D. N. Baker, and D. A. Roberts, "A description of the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling based on nonlinear filters," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 100, pp. 3495-3512, 1995.
11. D. Vassiliadis, A. J. Klimas, D. N. Baker, and D. A. Roberts, "The nonlinearity of models of the upsilon B/sub South/-AL coupling," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 101, pp. 19 779-19 787, 1996.
12. H. Gleisner and H. Lundstedt, "Response of the auroral electrojets to the solar wind modeled with neural networks," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 102, pp. 14 269-14 278, 1997.
13. G. M. Lindsay, C. T. Russell, and J. G. Luhmann, "Predictability of Dst index based upon solar wind conditions monitored inside 1 AU," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 104, pp. 10 335-10 344. 1999.
14. J. A. Joselyn, Geomagnetic Activity Forecasting: The State of the Art, vol. 33, pp. 383-401, 1995.
15. R. L. McPherron and G. L. Siscoe, "Probabilistic forecasting of geomagnetic indices using solar wind air mass analysis," Space Weather, vol. 2, p. S01001, 2004.
16. T. B. Low and D. R. Hudak, "Development of air mass climatology analysis for the determination of characteristic marine atmospheres. I. North Atlantic," Theoretical Appl. Climatol., vol. 57, pp. 135-153, 1997.
17. S. C. Sheridan, "The redevelopment of a weather-type classification scheme for North America," Int. J. Climatol., vol. 22, pp. 51-68, 2002.
18. B. Yarnal, Synoptic Climatology in Environmental Analysis, London, U.K.: Belhaven, 1993.
19. R. H. Levine, M. D. Altschuler, and J. W. Harvey, "Solar sources of the interplanetary magnetic field ang solar wind," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 82, pp. 1061-1065, 1977.
20. Y. M. Wang and N. R. Sheeley Jr., "Solar wind speed and coronal flux-tube expansion," Astrophys. J., vol. 355, pp. 726-732, 1990.
21. Y. M. Wang, N. R. Sheeley Jr., J. L. Phillips, and B. E. Goldstein, "Solar wind stream interactions and the wind speed-expansion factor relationship," Astrophys. J. Lett., vol. 488, pp. L51-L54, 1997.
22. Z. Xuepu and J. T. Hoeksema, "Prediction of the interplanetary magnetic field strength," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 100, pp. 19-33, 1995.
23. A. J. Ridley, "Estimations of the uncertainty in timing the relationship between magnetospheric and solar wind processes," J. Atmospheric Solar-Terrestrial Phys., vol. 62, pp. 757-771, 2000.
24. D. R. Weimer, D. M. Ober, N. C. Maynard, W. J. Burke, M. R. Collier, D. J. McComas, N. F. Ness, and C. W. Smith, "Variable time delays in the propagation of the interplanetary magnetic field," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 107, pp. SMP 29-1-SMP 29-15,2002.
25. D. R. Weimer. D. M. Ober, N. C. Maynard, M. R. Collier, D. J. McComas, N. F. Ness, C. W. Smith, and J. Watermann, "Predicting interplanetaty magnetic field (IMF) propagation delay times using the minimum variance technique," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 108, pp. SMP 16-1-SMP 16-12, 2003.
26. J. Chen, S. Slinker, J. A. Fedder, and J. G. Lyon, "Simulation of geomagnetic storms during the passage of magnetic clouds," Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 22, pp. 1749-1752, 1995.
27. T. P. O'Brien, D. Sornette, and R. L. McPherron, "Statistical Asynchronous regression," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 106, pp. 13 247-13 259, 2001.
28. T. P. O'Brien, R. L. McPherron, D. Sornette, G. D. Reeves, R. Friedel, and H. J. Singer, "Which magnetic storms produce relativistic electrons at geosynchronous orbit?," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 106, pp. 15 533-15 544, 2001.
29. C. T. Russell and R. L. McPherron, "Semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 78, pp. 92-108, 1973.
30. C. N. Arge and V. J. Pizzo, "Improvement in the prediction of solar wind conditions using near-real time solar magnetic field data," Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 105, pp. 10 465-10 4709, 2000.
31. J. Chen, P. J. Cargill, and P. J. Palmadesso, "Predicting solar wind structures and their geoeffectiveness," J. Geophys. Res., vol. 102, pp. 14 701-14 720, 1997.
32. J. Chen, P. J. Cargill, and P. J. Palmadesso, "Real-time identification and prediction of geoeffective solar wind structures," Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 23, pp. 625-628, 1996.
33. A. Y. Ukhorskiy, M. I. Sitnov, A. S. Sharma, and K. Papadopolous, "Global and multi-scale features of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling: From modeling to forecasting," Geophys. Res. Lett., vol. 31, p. L08802, 2004.