Weighing the evidence for expanding physician supply

Annals of Internal Medicine

Volumn 141, Issue 9, 2004, Pages 705-714

  Cooper, Richard A ^a  

^a MEDICAL COLLEGE OF WISCONSIN   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLINICAL PRACTICE; ECONOMIC ASPECT; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; HEALTH CARE; HEALTH CARE NEED; HUMAN; MEDICAL INFORMATION; PHYSICIAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; WORK CAPACITY;

EID: 7244221541     PISSN: 00034819     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.7326/0003-4819-141-9-200411020-00012     Document Type: Review

References (114)

1. Ginzberg E. Physician shortage reconsidered. N Engl J Med. 1966;275:85-7. [PMID: 5936872]
2. Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee. Report of the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee. Summary Report. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; 1981. DHHS publication HRA 81-652.
3. Tarlov AR. HMO enrollment growth and physicians: the third compartment. Health Aff (Millwood). 1986;5:23-35. [PMID: 3710416]
4. Grumbach K, Lee PR. How many physicians can we afford? JAMA. 1991; 265:2369-72. [PMID: 1901922]
5. Council on Graduate Medical Education. Fourth Report: Recommendations To Improve Access to Health Care through Physician Workforce Reform. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; 1994.
6. Weiner JP. Forecasting the effects of health reform on US physician workforce requirement. Evidence from HMO staffing patterns. JAMA. 1994;272:222-30. [PMID: 7912746]
7. Gamliel S, Politzer RM, Rivo ML, Mullan F. Managed care on the march: will physicians meet the challenge? Health Aff (Millwood). 1995;14:131-42. [PMID: 7657235]
8. Politzer RM, Gamliel SR, Cultice JM, Bazell CM, Rivo ML, Mullan F. Matching physician supply and requirements: testing policy recommendations. Inquiry. 1996;33:181-94. [PMID: 8675281]
9. Cooper RA, Getzen TE, McKee HJ, Laud P. Economic and demographic trends signal an impending physician shortage. Health Aff (Millwood). 2002;21:140-54. [PMID: 11900066]
10. Cooper RA. There's a shortage of specialists: is anyone listening? Acad Med. 2002;77:761-6. [PMID: 12176686]
11. Cooper RA, Stoflet SJ, Wartman SA. Perceptions of medical school deans and state medical society executives about physician supply. JAMA 2003;290:2292-5. [PMID: 14665661]
12. Council on Graduate Medical Education. Reassessing Physician Workforce Policy Guidelines for the U.S. 2000-2020. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; 2003.
13. Grumbach K. The ramifications of specialty-dominated medicine. Health Aff (Millwood). 2002;21:155-7. [PMID: 11900067]
14. Reinhardt UE. Analyzing cause and effect in the U.S. physician workforce. Health Aff (Millwood). 2002;21:165-6. [PMID: 11900071]
15. Barer M. New opportunities for old mistakes. Health Aff (Millwood) 2002;21:169-71. [PMID: 11900073]
16. Mullan F. Some thoughts on the white-follows-green law. Health Aff (Millwood). 2002;21:158-9. [PMID: 11900068]
17. American Medical Association. AMA Revises Policy to Address Continued Demand for Physicians. 9 December 2003. Accessed at www.ama-assn.org/ama/pub/ article/print/1616-8229.html on 1 February 2004.
18. Association of American Medical Colleges. The Physician Workforce: Position Statement-June 2002. Washington, DC: Association of American Medical Colleges; 2002.
19. American Association of Colleges of Osteopathic Medicine, American Medical Association, American Osteopathic Association, Association of Academic Health Centers, Association of American Medical Colleges, National Medical Association. Consensus Statement on Physician Workforce. Washington, DC: Association of American Medical Colleges; 1997.
20. Cooper RA, Getzen TE, Laud P. Economic expansion is a major determinant of physician supply and utilization. Health Serv Res. 2003;38:675-96. [PMID: 12785567]
21. Abt Associates Inc. Reexamination of the Adequacy of Physician Supply Made in 1980 by the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) for Selected Specialties-Final Report. (contract no. HRSA 240-89-0041). Cambridge, MA: Abt Associates Inc.; 1991.
22. Getzen TE. Macro forecasting of national health expenditures. Adv Health Econ Health Serv Res. 1990;11:27-48. [PMID: 10123014]
23. Getzen TE. Forecasting health expenditures: short, medium, and long (long) term. J Health Care Financing 2000;263:56-72.
24. Getzen TE. Health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury: applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditures. J Health Econ. 2000;19:259-70. [PMID: 10947579]
25. Anderson GF, Reinhardt UE, Hussey PS, Petrosyan V. It's the prices, stupid: why the United States is so different from other countries. Health Aff (Millwood). 2003;22:89-105. [PMID: 12757275]
26. Reinhardt UE, Hussey PS, Anderson GF. U.S. health care spending in an international context. Health Aff (Millwood). 2004;23:10-25. [PMID: 15160799]
27. Altman DE, Levitt L. The sad history of health care cost containment as told in one chart. Health Affairs Web Exclusive. 23 January 2002. 10.1377/hlthaff.w2.83. Accessed at http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/ full/hlthaff.w2.83v1/DC1 on 1 July 2003.
28. Cooper RA, Getzen TE. Health care spending in one chart. Health Aff (Millwood). 2002;21:279. [PMID: 12025993]
29. Bureau of Economic Analysis. National income and product accounts. Gross domestic product in current dollars and in chained (1996) dollars; 2002. Accessed at www.bea.gov/bea/dn/home/gdp.htm on 1 September 2004.
30. Strunk BC, Ginsburg PB. Tracking health care costs: trends stabilize but remain high in 2002. Health Affairs Web Exclusive. 11 June 2003. 10.1377/hlthaff.w3.266. Accessed at http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/ content/full/hlthaff.w3.266v1/DC1 on 1 June 2003.
31. Strunk BG, Ginsberg PB. Tracking Health Care Costs: Trends Slow in First Half of 2003. (Data Bulletin 26). Washington, DC: Center for Studying Health System Change; 2003.
32. Getzen TE. Population aging and the growth of health expenditures. J Gerontol. 1992;47:S98-104. [PMID: 1573213]
33. Reinhardt UE. Does the aging of the population really drive the demand for health care? Health Aff (Millwood). 2003;22:27-39. [PMID: 14649430]
34. Cutler DM. Declining disability among the elderly. Health Aff (Millwood). 2001;20:11-27. [PMID: 11816649]
35. Nordhaus WD. The health of nations: the contribution of improved health to standard of living. In: Murphy KM, Topel RH, eds. Measuring the Gains from Medical Research, An Economic Approach. Chicago: Univ Chicago Pr; 2003:9-40.
36. Schroeder SA, Sandy LG. Specialty distribution of U.S. physicians - the invisible driver of health care costs [Editorial]. N Engl J Med. 1993;328:961-3. [PMID: 8446146]
37. Wennberg JE. Innovation and the policies of limits in a changing health care economy. In: Gelijns AC, ed. Technology and Health Care in an Era of Limits. Washington, DC; National Academy Pr; 1992.
38. Fisher ES, Wennberg DE, Stukel TA, Gottlieb DJ, Lucas FL, Pinder EL. The implications of regional variations in Medicare spending. Part 1: the content, quality, and accessibility of care. Ann Intern Med. 2003;138:273-87. [PMID: 12585825]
39. Fisher ES, Wennberg DE, Stukel TA, Gottlieb DJ, Lucas FL, Pinder EL. The implications of regional variations in Medicare spending. Part 2: health outcomes and satisfaction with care. Ann Intern Med. 2003;138:288-98. [PMID: 12585826]
40. Fuchs VR. The supply of surgeons and the demand for operations. J Human Resour. 1978;13:35-56. [PMID: 722069]
41. Evans RG. Supplier-induced demand: some empirical evidence and implications. In: Perlman M, ed. The Economics of Health and Medical Care. London, United Kingdom: Macmillan; 1974.
42. Brennan TA, Berwick DM. New Rules: Regulation, Markets, and the Quality of American Health Care. San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass; 1996.
43. Petersdorf RG. Regulating the supply of internists: whose hand should be on the spigot? Internist. 1994;35:7-9, 17. [PMID: 10132688]
44. Petersdorf RG. The doctors' dilemma. N Engl J Med. 1978;299:628-34. [PMID: 683236]
45. Cooper RA. Seeking a balanced physician workforce for the 21st century. JAMA. 1994;272:680-7. [PMID: 8064983]
46. Cooper RA. Regulation won't solve our workforce problems. Internist. 1994;35:10-3. [PMID: 10132681]
47. Mullan F. The 'Mona Lisa' of health policy: primary care at home and abroad. Health Aff (Millwood). 1998;17:118-26. [PMID: 9558789]
48. Roper WL, Winkenwerder W, Hackbarth GM, Krakauer H. Effectiveness in health care. An initiative to evaluate and improve medical practice. N Engl J Med. 1988;319:1197-202. [PMID: 3173456]
49. Phelps CE. The methodologic foundations of studies of the appropriateness of medical care. N Engl J Med. 1993;329:1241-5. [PMID: 8413392]
50. Institute of Medicine. To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System. Kohn LT, Corrigan JM, Donaldson MS, eds. Washington, DC: National Academy Pr; 2000.
51. McNeil BJ. Shattuck Lecture - Hidden barriers to improvement in the quality of care. N Engl J Med. 2001;345:1612-20. [PMID: 11757509]
52. McGlynn EA, Asch SM, Adams J, Keesey J, Hicks J, DeCristofaro A, et al. The quality of health care delivered to adults in the United States. N Engl J Med. 2003;348:2635-45. [PMID: 12826639]
53. Wynia MK, VanGeest JB, Cummins DS, Wilson IB. Do physicians not offer useful services because of coverage restrictions? Health Aff (Millwood). 2003;22:190-7. [PMID: 12889768]
54. McGuire TG, Pauly MV. Physician response to fee changes with multiple payers. J Health Econ. 1991;10:385-410. [PMID: 10117011]
55. Mitchell JM, Hadley J, Gaskin DJ. Physicians' tesponses to Medicare fee schedule reductions. Med Care. 2000;38:1029-39. [PMID: 11021676]
56. Folland S, Goodman AC, Stano M. The Economics of Health and Health Care. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice-Hall; 2000:204-16.
57. Ernst RL, Yett DE. Physician Location and Specialty Choice. Ann Arbor, MI: Health Administration Pt; 1985.
58. Altman SH, Tompkins CP, Eilat E, Glavin MP. Escalating health care spending: Is it desirable or inevitable? Health Affairs Web Exclusive. 8 January 2003. 10.1377/hlthaff.w3.1. Accessed at http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/ content/full/hlthaff.w3.1v1/DC1 on 1 December 2003.
59. Ginzberg E. Physician supply in the year 2000. Health Aff (Millwood). 1989;8:84-90. [PMID: 2744698]
60. Chernew ME, Hirth RA, Cutler DM. Increased spending on health care: how much can the United States Afford? Health Aff (Millwood). 2003;22:15-25. [PMID: 12889745]
61. Pauly M. Should we be worried about high real medical spending growth in the United States? Health Affairs Web Exclusive. 8 January 2003. 10.1377/hlthaff.w3.15. Accessed at http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/ full/hlthaff.w3.15v1/DC1 on 1 December 2003.
62. Cutler D, McClellan M. Is technological change in medicine worth it? Health Aff (Millwood). 2002;20:11-29. [PMID: 11558696]
63. Murphy KM, Tople RH, eds. Measuring the Gains from Medical Research: An Economic Approach. Chicago: Univ Chicago Pr; 2003.
64. Aaron HJ. Should public policy seek to control the growth of health care spending? Health Affairs Web Exclusive. 8 January 2003. 10.1377/hlthaff.w3.28. Accessed at http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/full/hlthaff.w3.28v1/ DC1 on 1 December 2003.
65. Pasko T, Smart DR. Physician Characteristics and Distribution in the US, 2003-2004 Edition. Chicago: American Medical Association; 2003.
66. American Osteopathic Association. Statistics on Osteopathic Physicians. Chicago: American Osteopathic Association; 2002.
67. Cooper RA. Perspectives on the physician workforce to the year 2020. JAMA. 1995;274:1534-43. [PMID: 7474222]
68. Hecker DE. Occupational Employment Projections to 2012. Monthly Labor Review. 2004;127:80-105.
69. Schwartz WB, Sloan FA, Mendelson DN. Why there will be little or no physician surplus between now and the year 2000. N Engl J Med. 1988;318:892-7. [PMID: 3352673]
70. Workforce Analysis Branch, Bureau of Health Professions. Changing Demographics and the Implications for Physicians, Nurses and Other Health Workers. Washington, DC: Health Resources and Services Administration; 2003.
71. Heffler S, Smith S, Keehan S, Clemens MK, Won G, Zezza M. Health spending projections for 2002-2012. Health Aff (Millwood). 2003;Suppl: W3-54-65. [PMID: 14527235]
72. The Office of the Actuary. Projections of National Health Expenditures: Methodology and Model Specification. Washington, DC: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; 2003. Accessed at www.cms.hhs.gov/statistics/nhe/projections- methodology/ on 15 December 2003.
73. Holtz-Eakin D. Medicare's Long-Term Financial Condition. Testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, 24 March 2004. Accessed at http://waysandmeans.house.gov/hearings.asp?formmode=view&id=1305 on 1 September 2004.
74. National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Projected Supply, Demand, and Shortages of Registered Nurses: 2000-2020. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; 2002.
75. Lowry SM, Maynard HB, Stegmerten GJ. Time and Motion Study and Formulas for Wage Incentives. New York: McGraw-Hill; 1927.
76. Lee RI, Jones LW. The Fundamentals of Good Medical Care. Chicago: Univ Chicago Pr; 1933.
77. Cooper RA, Goodman DC, Menken M, Salsberg ES, Whitcomb ME. Evaluation of Specialty Workforce Methodologies. Washington, DC: Council on Graduate Medical Education, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; 2000.
78. Reinhardt U. The impending physician surplus: is it time to quit? JAMA. 1997;277:69. [PMID: 8980215]
79. Wilensky GR. Alleviating the physician glut: what's the government's role? JAMA. 1997;277:73. [PMID: 8980218]
80. Pew Health Professions Commission. Critical Challenges: Revitalizing the Health Professions for the Twenty-First Century. San Francisco, CA: Pew Health Professions Commission; 1995.
81. Josiah Macy Jr. Foundation. Report of the Josiah Macy Jr. Foundation for 1 July 1991 through 30 June 1992. New York: Josiah Macy Jr. Foundation; 1992.
82. Physician Payment Review Commission. Graduate medical education reform. In: Annual Report to Congress, 1994. Washington, DC: Physician Payment Review Commission; 1994:237-63.
83. American Medical Association. Medicare Direct and Indirect Medical Education Costs (Policy H-305.968). Chicago: American Medical Association; 1997.
84. Institute of Medicine. The Nation's Physician Workforce: Options for Balancing Supply and Requirements. Washington, DC: National Academy Pr; 1996.
85. Evans S, Sarani B. The modern medical school graduate and general surgical training: are they compatible? Arch Surg. 2002;137:274-7. [PMID: 11888448]
86. American Medical Association. Physician Socioeconomic Statistics 2000-2002. Chicago: American Medical Association; 2001.
87. Trude S. So much to do, so little time: physician capacity constraints, 1997-2001. Tracking Report No. 8. The Center for Studying Health System Change. May 2003. Accessed at www.hschange.org/CONTENT/556/ on 1 June 2003.
88. Cherry DK, Burt CW, Woodwell DA. National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey: 2001 Summary. Advance Data from Vital and Health Statistics; no. 337. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for Health Statistics; 2003.
89. Mechanic D, McAlpine DD, Rosenthal M. Are patients' office visits with physicians getting shorter? N Engl J Med. 2001;344:198-204. [PMID: 11172143]
90. Zuger A. Dissatisfaction with medical practice. N Engl J Med. 2004;350:69-75. [PMID: 14702431]
91. Cooper RA, Laud P, Dietrich CL. Current and projected workforce of nonphysician clinicians. JAMA. 1998;280:788-94. [PMID: 9729990]
92. Cooper RA, Henderson T, Dietrich CL. Roles of nonphysician clinicians as autonomous providers of patient care. JAMA. 1998;280:795-802. [PMID: 9729991]
93. Cooper R, Stoflet S. Diversity and consistency: the challenge of maintaining quality in a multidisciplinary workforce. J Health Serv Res Policy. 2004;9 Suppl 1:39-47. [PMID: 15006227]
94. Sox HC Jr. Quality of patient care by nurse practitioners and physician's assistants: a ten-year perspective. Ann Intern Med. 1979;91:459-68. [PMID: 38721]
95. Sox HC. Independent primary care practice by nurse practitioners [Editorial]. JAMA. 2000;283:106-8. [PMID: 10632289]
96. Cooper RA, McKee HJ. Chiropractic in the United States: trends and issues. Milbank Q. 2003;81:107-38, table of contents. [PMID: 12669653]
97. Mundinger MO, Kane RL, Lenz ER, Totten AM, Tsai WY, Cleary PD, et al. Primary care outcomes in patients treated by nurse practitioners or physicians: a randomized trial. JAMA. 2000;283:59-68. [PMID: 10632281]
98. Center for Health Workforce Studies. Physician Supply and Demand Indicators in New York and California: A Summary of Trends in Starting Income, Relative Demand and GME Graduates in 35 Medical Specialties. Albany, NY: The Center for Health Workforce Studies; 2003.
99. Merritt J, Hawkins J, Miller PB. Will the last physician in America please turn off the lights? A look at America's looming doctor shortage. Irving, TX: The MHA Group; 2004.
100. Medicare Payment Advisory Commission. 2002 Survey of Physicians about the Medicare Program. Washington, DC: Medical Payment Advisory Commission; 2002. Accessed at www.medpac.gov/publications/contractor_reports/ Mar03_02PhysSurv_summary2.pdf on 1 September 2004.
101. Trude S, Ginsberg P. Growing Physician Access Problems Complicate Medicare Payment Debate. Washington, DC: Center for Studying Health Systems Change; 2002.
102. Cohen JJ. Letter to Mark B. McClellan, Administrator, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, regarding rule change CMS-1428-P, 12 July 2004. Accessed at www.aamc.org/advocacy/library/teachhosp/corres/2004/071204.pdf on 1 September 2004.
103. Wanless D. Securing Our Furure Health: Taking a Long-Term View. London: Health Trends Review at HM Treasury; 2002.
104. Young R, Nobel J, Hann M, Sibbald B. The International Market for Medical Doctors: Perspectives on the Positioning of the UK. Manchester, United Kingdom: National Primary Care Research and Development Centre; 2003.
105. Chan B. Physician workforce planning: what have we learned? Lessons for planning medical school capacity and IMG policies. The Canadian perspective. In: Proceedings of the 7th International Medical Workforce Conference, 11-14 September 2003. Oxford, United Kingdom. Accessed at www.healthworkforce.health. nsw.gov.au/amwac/amwac/imwc.html on 15 September 2003.
106. Gavel P. Physician workforce planning: What have we learned? An Australian perspective. In: Proceedings of the 7th International Medical Workforce Conference, 11-14 September 2003. Oxford, United Kingdom. Accessed at www.healthworkforce.health.nsw.gov.au/amwac/amwac/imwc.html on 15 December 2003.
107. Reinhardt UE. The economist's model of physician behavior [Editorial]. JAMA. 1999;281:462-5. [PMID: 9952209]
108. Cooper RA. Medical schools and their applicants: an analysis. Health Aff (Millwood). 2003;22:71-84. [PMID: 12889752]
109. Singer A. Undergraduate osteopathic medical education. J Am Osteopath Assoc. 2001;101:646-52. [PMID: 11758155]
110. Miller RD, Lanier WL. The shortage of anesthesiologists: an unwelcome lesson for other medical specialties [Editorial]. Mayo Clin Proc. 2001;76:969-70. [PMID: 11605697]
111. Angus DC, Kelley MA, Schmitz RJ, White A, Popovich J Jr. Caring for the critically ill patient. Current and projected workforce requirements for care of the critically ill and patients with pulmonary disease: can we meet the requirements of an aging population? JAMA. 2000;284:2762-70. [PMID: 11105183]
112. Cooper RA. Impact of trends in primary, secondary, and postsecondary education on applications to medical school. I: gender considerations. Acad Med. 2003;78:855-63. [PMID: 14507612]
113. Cooper RA. Impact of trends in primary, secondary, and postsecondary education on applications to medical school. II: considerations of race, ethnicity, and income. Acad Med. 2003;78:864-76. [PMID: 14507613]
114. Blumenthal D, New steam from an old cauldron - the physician-supply debate. N Engl J Med. 2004;350:1780-7. [PMID: 15103006]