Can life-history traits predict the response of forb populations to changes in climate variability?

Journal of Ecology

Volumn 98, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 209-217

  Dalgleish, Harmony J ^a   Koons, David N ^a   Adler, Peter B ^a  

^a UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Elasticity; Life history; Matrix models; Mixed grass prairie; Short lived perennial; Stochastic demography

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE VARIATION; DEMOGRAPHY; FORAGE; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION GROWTH; PRAIRIE; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); STOCHASTICITY; VULNERABILITY;

EID: 72249085206     PISSN: 00220477     EISSN: 13652745     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01585.x     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Adler, P.B. (2004) Neutral models fail to reproduce observed species-area and species-time relationship in Kansas grassland. Ecology, 85, 1265 1272.
2. Adler, P.B. HilleRisLambers, J. (2008) The influence of climate and species composition on the population dynamics of ten prairie forbs. Ecology, 89, 3049 3060.
3. Adler, P.B., Tyburczy, W.R. Lauenroth, W.K. (2007) Long-term mapped quadrats from Kansas prairie: a unique source of demographic information for herbaceous plants. Ecology, 88, 2673.
4. Adler, P.B., HilleRisLambers, J., Kyriakidis, P., Guan, Q. Levine, J.M. (2006) Climate variability has a stabilizing effect on coexistence of prairie grasses. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 103, 12793 12798.
5. Albertson, F.W. Tomanek, G.W. (1965) Vegetation changes during a 30-year period in grassland communities near Hays, Kansas. Ecology, 46, 714 720.
6. Boyce, M.S., Haridas, C.V. Lee, C.T. (2006) Demography in an increasingly variable world. TREE, 21, 141 148.
7. Caswell, H. (1978) A general formula for the sensitivity of population growth rate to changes in life history parameters. Theoretical Population Biology, 14, 215 230.
8. Caswell, H. (2001) Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis and Interpretation. Sinauer Associates, Inc., Sunderland, MA.
9. Doak, D.F., Morris, W.F., Pfister, C., Kendall, B.E. Bruna, E.M. (2005) Correctly estimating how environmental stochasticity influences fitness and population growth. The American Naturalist, 166, E14 E21.
10. Drake, J.M. (2005) Population effects of increased climate variation. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, 272, 1823 1827.
11. Fair, J., Lauenroth, W. Coffin, D. (1999) Demography of Bouteloua gracilis in a mixed prairie: analysis of genets and individuals. Journal of Ecology, 87, 233 243.
12. Forcada, J., Trathan, P.N. Murphy, E.J. (2008) Life history buffering in Antarctic mammals and birds against changing patterns of climate and environmental variation. Global Change Biology, 14, 2473 2488.
13. Fox, G.A. Gurevitch, J. (2000) Population numbers count: tools for near-term demographic analysis. The American Naturalist, 156, 242 256.
14. Franco, M. Silvertown, J. (2004) A comparative demography of plants based upon elasticities of vital rates. Ecology, 85, 531 538.
15. Gaillard, J.M., Yoccoz, N.G., Lebreton, J.D., Bonenfant, C., Devillard, S., Loison, A., Pontier, D. Allaine, D. (2005) Generation time: a reliable metric to measure life-history variation among mammalian populations. The American Naturalist, 166, 119 123.
16. Garcia, M.B., Pico, F.X. Ehrlen, J.E. (2008) Life span correlates with population dynamics in perennial herbaceous plants. American Journal of Botany, 95, 258 262.
17. Haridas, C.V. Tuljapurkar, S. (2005) Elasticities in variable environments: properties and implications. The American Naturalist, 166, 481 495.
18. Heppell, S.S., Caswell, H. Crowder, L.B. (2000) Life histories and elasticity patterns: perturbation analysis for species with minimal demographic data. Ecology, 81, 654 665.
19. Heyde, C.C. Cohen, J.E. (1985) Confidence intervals for demographic projections based on products of random matrices. Theoretical Population Biology, 27, 120 153.
20. Hill, R.R. (1920) Charting quadrats with a pantograph. Ecology, 1, 270 273.
21. Horvitz, C., Schemske, D.W. Caswell, H. (1997) The relative "importance" of life-history stages to population growth: prospective and retrospective analyses. Structured-Population Models in Marine, Terrestrial and Freshwater Systems (eds S. Tuljapurkar H. Caswell pp. 247 271. Chapman and Hall, New York, NY.
22. IPCC 2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden C.E. Hanson pp. 976. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
23. Knapp, A.K. Smith, M.D. (2001) Variation among biomes in temporal dynamics of aboveground primary production. Science, 291, 481 484.
24. Knapp, A.K., Fay, P.A., Blair, J.M., Collins, S.L., Smith, M.D., Carlisle, J.D., Harper, C.W., Danner, B.T., Lett, M.S. McCarron, J.K. (2002) Rainfall variability, carbon cycling, and plant species diversity in a mesic grassland. Science, 298, 2202 2205.
25. Koons, D.N., Metcalf, C.J.E. Tuljapurkar, S. (2008) Evolution of delayed reproduction in uncertain environments: a life-history perspective. The American Naturalist, 172, 797 805.
26. Koons, D.N., Pavard, S., Baudisch, A. Metcalf, C.J.E. (2009) Is life-history buffering or lability adaptive in stochastic environments? Oikos, 118, 972 980.
27. de Kroon, H., Plaisier, A., van Groenendael, J. Caswell, H. (1986) Elasticity: the relative contribution of demographic parameters to population growth rate. Ecology, 67, 1427 1431.
28. Lauenroth, W.K. Adler, P.B. (2008) Demography of grassland plants: survival, life expectancy and life span. Journal of Ecology, 96, 1023 1032.
29. Lewontin, R.C. Cohen, D. (1969) On population growth in a randomly varying environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 62, 1056 1060.
30. Morris, W.F., Tuljapurkar, S., Haridas, C.V., Menges, E.S., Horvitz, C.C. Pfister, C.A. (2006) Sensitivity of the population growth rate to demographic variability within and between phases of the disturbance cycle. Ecology Letters, 9, 1331 1341.
31. Morris, W.F., Pfister, C.A., Tuljapurkar, S., Haridas, C.V., Boggs, C.L., Boyce, M.S. et al. (2008) Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability. Ecology, 89, 19 25.
32. Oli, M.K. Dobson, F.S. (2003) The relative importance of life-history variables to population growth rate in mammals: Cole's prediction revisited. The American Naturalist, 161, 422 440.
33. Parmesan, C. Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37 42.
34. Pounds, J.A., Bustamante, M.R., Coloma, L.A., Consuegra, J.A., Fogden, M.P.L., Foster, P.N. et al. (2006) Widespread amphibian extinctions from epidemic disease driven by global warming. Nature, 439, 161 167.
35. R Development Core Team. (2005) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
36. Rees, M. (1994) Delayed germination of seeds: a look at the effects of adult longevity, the timing of reproduction, and population age/stage structure. The American Naturalist, 144, 43 64.
37. Sæther, B. Bakke, Ø. (2000) Avian life history variation and contribution of demographic traits to the population growth rate. Ecology, 81, 642 653.
38. Salinger, M. (2005) Climate variability and change: past, present and future. Climatic Change, 70, 9 29. (Pubitemid 40938412)
39. Schaffer, W.M. (1974) Optimal reproductive effort in fluctuating environments. The American Naturalist, 108, 783 790.
40. Sklar, A. (1959) Fonctions de répartition à n dimensions et leures marges. Publications de l'Institut de Statistique de L'Université de Paris, 8, 229 231.
41. The MathWorks, Inc. (2002) MATLAB Software: Changes and Enhancements Through Version 7.4. The MathWorks, Inc, Natick, MA.
42. Tuljapurkar, S. (1984) Demography in stochastic environments. I. Exact distributions of age structure. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 19, 335 350.
43. Tuljapurkar, S. (1990) Population Dynamics in Variable Environments. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY.
44. Tuljapurkar, S., Horvitz, C. Pascarella, J.B. (2003) The many growth rates and elasticities of populations in random environments. The American Naturalist, 162, 489 502.
45. Venable, D.L. (2007) Bet hedging in a guild of desert annuals. Ecology, 88, 1086 1090.
46. Weaver, J.E. Albertson, F.W. (1943) Resurvey of grasses, forbs, and underground plant parts at the end of the end of the Great Drought. Ecology, 13, 63 117.