Uncertainty analysis of wind energy potential assessment

Applied Energy

Volumn 87, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 856-865

  Kwon, Soon Duck ^a  

^a Chonbuk National University   (South Korea)

Author keywords

Annual energy production; Probability model; Uncertainty analysis; Wind characteristics; Wind resource assessment

Indexed keywords

AIR; MONTE CARLO METHODS; NUMERICAL METHODS; NUMERICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY; SURFACE ROUGHNESS; WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION; WIND; WIND POWER; WIND TURBINES;

ANNUAL ENERGY PRODUCTIONS; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; EMPIRICAL PROBABILITIES; MEASURE-CORRELATE-PREDICT; NATURAL VARIABILITY; PROBABILITY MODELING; WIND CHARACTERISTICS; WIND RESOURCE ASSESSMENT;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; PROBABILITY; RENEWABLE RESOURCE; TEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TURBINE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WEIBULL THEORY; WIND POWER; WIND VELOCITY;

EID: 71849115521     PISSN: 03062619     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.08.038     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Bekele G., and Palm B. Wind energy potential assessment at four typical locations in Ethiopia. Appl Energy 86 (2009) 388-396
2. Ucar A., and Balo F. Evaluation of wind energy potential and electricity generation at six locations in Turkey. Appl Energy 86 (2009) 1864-1872
3. Ackermann T., and Söder L. An overview of wind energy-status 2002. Renew Sust Energy Rev 6 (2002) 67-128
4. Petersen EL, Mortensen NG, Landberg L, Hojstrup J, Frank HP. Wind power meteorology. Riso National Laboratory. Riso-I-1206; 1997.
5. Montes G.M., and Martin E.P. Profitability of wind energy: short-term risk factors and possible improvements. Renew Sust Energy Rev 11 (2007) 2191-2200
6. Lange M. On the uncertainty of wind power predictions-analysis of the forecast accuracy and statistical distribution of errors. J Sol Energy Eng 127 (2005) 177-184
7. Pinson P., and Kariniotakis G. On-line assessment of prediction risk for wind power production forecasts. Wind Energy 7 (2004) 119-132
8. Tindal A, Harman K, Johnson C, Schwarz A, Garrad A, Hassan G. Validation of GH energy and uncertainty predictions by comparison to actual production. AWEA Wind Resource and Project Energy Assessment Workshop, Portland; 2007.
9. Bastide C, Harding J. Energy yield assessment - are you doing it right?. EWEC2007, Milan; 2007.
10. Lackner MA, Rogers AL, Manwell JF. Uncertainty analysis in wind resource assessment and wind energy production estimation. 45th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, Reno; 2007.
11. Fontaine A, Armstrong P. Uncertainty analysis in energy yield assessment. EWEC2007, Milan; 2007.
12. Tavner P., Edwards C., Brinkman A., and Spinato F. Influence of wind speed on wind turbine reliability. Wind Eng 30 1 (2006) 55-72
13. Duenas-Osorio L., and Basu B. Unavailability of wind turbine due to wind-induced accelerations. Eng Struct 30 4 (2008) 885-893
14. IEC technical committee 88. International Standard IEC 61400-12-1. Wind turbines. Part 12-1: power performance measurements of electricity producing wind turbines; 2005.
15. Chonbuk National University. Ocean environmental monitoring tower at Kwangyang Bay. .
16. Burton T., Sharpe D., Jenkins N., and Bossanyi E. Wind energy handbook (2001), Wiley
17. Ang A.H.S., and Tang W.H. Probability concepts in engineering (2007), John Wiley & Sons
18. Simiu E., and Scanlan R.H. Wind effects on structures (1996), Wiley
19. Shiotani M. Characteristics of strong winds. Kaifasha (1992) [in Japanese]
20. Technical University of Denmark. Database of wind characteristics. .
21. Justus C.G., and Mikhail A. Height variation of wind speed and wind distributions statistics. Geophys Res Lett 3 /5 (1975) 261-264
22. Rogers A.L., Rogers J.W., and Manwell J.F. Comparison of the performance of four measure-correlate-predict algorithms. J Wind Eng Ind Aerodynam 93 (2005) 243-264
23. Carta J.A., Ramirez P., and Velazquez S. A review of wind speed probability distributions used in wind energy analysis - case studies in the Canary Islands. Renew Sust Energy Rev 13 5 (2009) 933-955
24. Rogers AL, Rogers JW, Manwell JF. Uncertainties in results of Measure-Correlated-Predict analyses. AWEA2005, Denver; 2005.
25. Pedersen TF, Gjerding S, Ingham P, Enevoldsen P, Hansen JK, Jorgensen HK. Wind turbine power performance verification in complex terrain and wind farms. RISO National Laboratory. Riso-R-1330; 2002.
26. Korean Institute of Energy Research, Presentation materials; 2004 [in Korean].
27. Chang T.J., Wu Y.T., Hsu H.Y., Chu C.R., and Lio C.M. Assessment of wind characteristics and wind turbine characteristics in Taiwan. Renew Energy 28 (2003) 851-871
28. Lebrun R., and Dutfoy A. An innovating analysis of the Nataf transformation from the copula viewpoint. Probabilist Eng Mech 24 3 (2009) 312-320