Japan's confused revolution

Washington Quarterly

Volumn 33, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 3-19

  Green, Michael J ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 71049194757     PISSN: 0163660X     EISSN: 15309177     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01636600903418637     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. See Office of the Press Secretary, The White House, "Readout of the President's Call with Democratic Party of Japan President Yukio Hatoyama," September 2, 2009, http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/Readout-of-the-Presidents-Call-with-Democratic-Party-of-Japan-President-Yukio-Hatoyama/.
2. See CSIS, "Understanding Japan's Elections: What the Elections Mean for Asia and the United States," Schieffer Series, Washington, D.C., September 2, 2009, http://csis.org/event/schieffer-series-understanding-japans-elections-what-elections-mean-asia-and-united-states (video).
3. See CSIS, "A Combatant Commander's Perspective on Security in the Asia-Pacific," Military Strategy Forum, Washington, D.C., September 15, 2009, http://csis.org/event/military-strategy-forum-combatant-commanders-perspective-security-asia-pacific. (hereinafter Keating remarks).
4. "Hatoyama-naikaku, Shijiritsu 75 percent: Hossokuji de rekidai nii, Nikkei yoron chousa" [The Hatoyama Administration won 75 percent Approval Rate: the Second Highest in History, Nikkei Opinion Poll], Nikkei Shimbun, September 18, 2009, http://ww.nikkei.co.jp/news/main/20090918AT3S1703217092009.html (in Japanese).
5. "Minshutou-Seiken ni kitaisuru 74 percent, Asahi Shimbun yoron chousa" [74 percent Answered "Placing High Expectation on the Hatoyama Government, Asahi Opinion Poll], Asahi Shimbun, September 1, 2009, http://www.asahi.com/politics/update/0901/TKY200909010400.html (in Japanese).
6. Sankei FNN yoron chowa: Hatoyama jiki shushou ni kitai 63.8 percent, shouin wa "jiko he no hihan" 5 wari chou [Sankei FNN Opinion poll: 63.8 percent answered "placing high expectations for the prime minister-designate Hatoyama"; more than 50 percent responded: "the cause for victory was criticism towards LDP and Kominto"], Sankei Shimbun, September 7, 2009, http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/election/090907/elc0909071135003-n1.htm (in Japanese).
7. 87.5 percent of respondents in the Sankei Shimbun poll.
8. DJP, The Democratic Party of Japan's Platform for Government: Putting People's Lives First, August 18, 2009, p. 4, http://www.dpj.or.jp/english/manifesto/manifesto2009.pdf.
9. "Minshutou-seiken ni kitaisuru 74 percent, Asahi Shimbun yoron chousa," [74 percent answered "placing high expectation on the Hatoyama government, Asahi opinion poll].
10. See Ichiro Ozawa, Blueprint for a New Japan [Nihon KaizoKeikaku] (New York: Kodansha International, 1994).
11. Democratic Party of Japan, Agreement for a Three-Party Coalition Government, September 9, 2009, p. 2 http://www.dpj.or.jp/news/?num17017.
12. "Ozawa Minshuto Daihyo jinin wo hyomei," [DPJ Leader Ozawa Announced his Resignation], Yomiuri Shimbun, May 11, 2009, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/feature/20090511-674295/news/20090511-OYT1T00695.htm (in Japanese).
13. "Sankei FNN Yoronchousa: Omona shitsumon to kaitou" [Sankei-FNN Opinion Poll: Major Questions and Answers], Sankei News, July 17, 2009, http://sankei.jp.msn.com/politics/situation/090907/stt0909071754008-n1.htm (in Japanese).
14. Cabinet Office of Japan, "Gaikou ni kansuru yoron chousa" [Opinion Poll on Foreign Policies], October 2008, http://www8.cao.go.jp/survey/h20/h20-gaiko/index.html (in Japanese).
15. See "Kenpo kaisei 'sansei' 51.6 percent, futatabi tasuu simeru, Yomiuri yoron chousa" [51.6 percent Says 'Yes' for Constitutional Revision: Majority Favors It, Yomiuri Opinion poll], Yomiuri Shimbun, April 3, 2009, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/news/20090403-OYT1T00006.htm (in Japanese).
16. "DPJ AT THE HELM / Hatoyama Emphasizes Asia Diplomacy," Daily Yomiuri Online, September 24, 2009, http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20090924TDY02307.htm.
17. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, "Joint Press Statement of 7th Summit Meeting among the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea," January 14, 2007, p. 4, http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/pmv0701/joint070114.pdf.
18. The poll of 350 elites in nine Asian countries was particularly striking because 54 percent of Japanese respondents said that their security in 10 years would depend primarily on alliance with the United States, contrasted with a very small percentage, which in invisible in the chart, who thought regional institutions would be sufficient. See Strategic Views on Asian Regionalism Survey Results and Analysis (Washington, D.C.: CSIS, February 2009), p. 13, http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090217_gill_stratviews_web.pdf.
19. Hatoyama blamed the U.S. model of capitalism for the financial crisis and promised the DPJ would move closer to Asia. See "A New Path for Japan," New York Times, August 26, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/27/opinion/27iht-edhatoyama.html.
20. Keating remarks.
21. See "DPJ to Probe Secret Nuke Deal with U.S.," Asahi Shimbun, September 14, 2009, http://www.asahi.com/english/Herald-asahi/TKY200909140047.html;
22. "Beiseifu, Hatoyama-seiken Okada-gaikou ni kitai to kenen," [The U.S. Government Sees Both Hope and Concern in Okada's Diplomacy], Asahi Shimbun, September 16, 2009, http://www.asahi.com/politics/update/0916/TKY200909160333.html (in Japanese).
23. Told to author by Ozawa lieutenants on background.
24. See Takashi Oshio, "The Declining Birthrate in Japan," Japan Economic Currents, no. 68 (Tokyo: Japan Institute for Social and Economic Affairs, March 2008): 1-9, http://www.kkc.or.jp/english/activities/publications/economic-currents69.pdf.
25. Japan Research Institute, "A Factorial Analysis of the Decline in Japan's Labor Productivity Through an International Comparison by Industry," September 4, 2008, http://www.jri.co.jp/english/press/press_html/2008/080904.html (news release).
26. 16.02 percent of Japan's gross domestic product comes from trade. See IMF, International Financial Statistics, June 2009, http://www.iti.or.jp/stat/2-008.pdf (in Japanese).
27. DJP, Agreement for a Three-Party Coalition Government, September 9, 2009, p. 2 http://www.dpj.or.jp/news/?num17017.
28. See DJP, "Economic and Financial Crisis Measures: Opening up a Path Towards the Future by 'Putting People's Lives First,"' November 5, 2008, http://www.dpj.or.jp/english/financial/f_crisis.html.
29. See OECD Economic Surveys, Japan 2009, pp. 24, 75 http://www.oecd.org/document/46/0,3343,en_2649_33733_42514158_1_1_1_1,00.html. For the issue of budget deficit, see "Nihon ga kawaru, Keizai zaisei, Minshu towareru shinka" [Japan's Change: DPJ's Ability in Economic and Financial Management Will be Tested], Mainichi Shimbun, September 28, 2009, http://www.mainichi.co.jp/osaka/wakaru/seikenkotai/keizai.html. (NOTE: OECD's updated data is available. According to the new statistics, "Assuming a rise in Japan's long-term interest rate to 2.2 percent by the end of 2010, the OECD projects that gross public debt will reach 200 percent of GDP (100 percent for net debt, which would also be the highest in the OECD area)" (p. 75). While the graphic on page 74 shows roughly the amount of the debt, the exact date of gross debt (172.1) is available on p. 24.
30. Keidanren has contributed to the DPJ but Hatoyama promised to end those in one year. Business leaders also sat on the Prime Minister's Commission on Economic and Industrial Policy (CEIP) (Keizai Zaisei Shimon Kaigi), which the DPJ has eliminated. See "Keizai Zaisei Shimon Kaigi: 'Nihonseiji no shireitou' 8 nen-han no rekishini maku," [Commission on Economic and Industrial Policy: Command Center of Japanese Politics ends its eight and a half-year-long history], Mainichi Daily News, September 16, 2009, http://mainichi.jp/select/biz/news/20090917k0000m020085000c.html (in Japanese).
31. "Business Federation Raises Doubts over DPJ's Plan to Cut Greenhouse Gases by 25Percent," Mainichi Daily News, September 15, 2009, http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20090915p2a00m0na001000c.html.
32. Society at a Glance 2009: OECD Social Indicators, OECD, Website, www.oecd.org/els/social/indicators/SAG.
33. Kenneth Pyle, Japan Rising (New York: Public Affairs, 2007).