A physics-based simulation of the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake to predict strong ground motions

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

Volumn 99, Issue 6, 2009, Pages 3150-3171

  Fukuyama, Eiichi ^a   Ando, Ryosuke ^a,c   Hashimoto, Chihiro ^b,d   Aoi, Shin ^a   Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro ^b,e  

^a NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR EARTH SCIENCE AND DISASTER PREVENTION   (Japan)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^c NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ADVANCED INDUSTRIAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AIST   (Japan)

^d NAGOYA UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^e INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL MATHEMATICS   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

GROUND MOTIONS; GROUND VELOCITY; HYPOCENTER LOCATION; INTEGRATED SIMULATIONS; KINEMATIC MODELING; PEAK GROUND VELOCITY; PHYSICS-BASED; PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATION; RESPONSE SPECTRA; RUPTURE PROPAGATION; SITE AMPLIFICATION; STRESS ACCUMULATION; STRONG GROUND MOTION; STRONG MOTION; SUBDUCTION EARTHQUAKES; SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAM; TECTONIC LOADING; TOKACHI; UNCERTAIN PARAMETERS; VELOCITY RESPONSE;

AMPLIFICATION; COMPUTER CRIME; DISASTERS; SIMULATORS; STRESS ANALYSIS; TECTONICS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EARTHQUAKES;

AMPLIFICATION; ASPERITY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CYCLIC LOADING; EARTHQUAKE EVENT; EARTHQUAKE HYPOCENTER; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; EARTHQUAKE RUPTURE; GROUND MOTION; KINEMATICS; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; PEAK ACCELERATION; SITE EFFECT; STRONG MOTION; SUBDUCTION; SYNTHETIC SEISMOGRAM; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ASIA; EURASIA; FAR EAST; HOKKAIDO; JAPAN;

EID: 70450220297     PISSN: 00371106     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1785/0120080040     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Aagaard, B. T., G. Anderson, and K. W. Hudnut (2004). Dynamic rupture modeling of the transition from thrust to strike-slip motion in the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, no. 6B, S190-S201.
2. Aagaard, B. T., T. H. Heaton, and J. F. Hall (2001). Dynamic earthquake ruptures in the presence of lithostatic normal stresses: Implications for friction models and heat production, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 91, no. 6, 1765-1796.
3. Ando, M. (1975). Source mechanisms and tectonic significance of historical earthquakes along the Nankai trough, Japan, Tectonophysics 27, no. 2, 119-140.
4. Andrews, D. J. (1976). Rupture propagation with finite stress in antiplane strain, J. Geophys. Res. 81, 3575-3582.
5. Aochi, H., and E. Fukuyama (2002). Three dimensional non-planar simulation of the 1992 Landers earthquake, J. Geophys. Res. 107, no. B2, 2035, doi 10.1029/2000JB000061.
6. Aochi, H., and M. Matsu'ura (2002). Slip- and time-dependent fault constitutive law and its significance in earthquake generation cycles, Pure Appl. Geophys. 159, 2029-2044.
7. Aochi, H., and K. B. Olsen (2004). On the effects of non-planar geometry for blind thrust faults on strong ground motion, Pure Appl. Geophys. 161, 2139-2153.
8. Aoi, S., and H. Fujiwara (1999). 3D finite-difference method using discontinuous grids, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 89, 918-930.
9. Aoi, S., R. Honda, N. Morikawa, H. Sekiguchi, H. Suzuki, Y. Hayakawa, T. Kunugi, and H. Fujiwara (2008). 3D finite-difference simulation of long-period ground motions for the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake, J. Geophys. Res. 113, B07302, doi 10.1029/2007JB005452.
10. Bakun, W. H., B. Aagaard, B. Dost, W. L. Ellsworth, J. L. Hardebeck, R. A. Harris, C. Ji, M. J. S. Johnston, J. Langbein, J. J. Lienkaemper, A. J. Michael, J. R. Murray, R. M. Nadeau, P. A. Reasenberg, M. S. Reichle, E. A. Roeloffs, A. Shakal, R. W. Simpson, and F. Waldhauser (2005). Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, Nature 437, 969-974, doi 10.1038/nature04067.
11. Brown, S. R., and C. H. Scholz (1985). Broad bandwidth study of the topography of natural rock surfaces, J. Geophys. Res. 90, 12,575-12,582.
12. Das, S., and B. V. Kostrov (1983). Breaking of a single asperity: Rupture process and seismic radiation, J. Geophys. Res. 88, 4277-4288.
13. Day, S. M. (1982). Three-dimensional simulation of spontaneous rupture: The effect of nonuniform prestess, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 72, no. 6, 1881-1902.
14. DeMets, C., R. G. Gordon, D. F. Argus, and S. Stein (1994). Effect of recent revisions to the geomagnetic reversal time scale on estimates of current plate motions, Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 2191-2194.
15. Dieterich, J. H. (1972). Time-dependent friction in rocks, J. Geophys. Res. 77, no. 20, 3690-3697.
16. Dieterich, J. H. (1979). Modeling of rock friction 1. Experimental results and constitutive equations, J. Geophys. Res. 84, no. B5, 2161-2168.
17. Duan, B., and D. D. Oglesby (2005). Multicycle dynamics of nonplanar strike-slip faults, J. Geophys. Res. 110, B03304, doi 10.1029/ 2004JB003298.
18. Dziewonski, A. M., S. Bloch, and M. Landisman (1969). A technique for the analysis of transient seismic signals, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 59, no. 1, 427-444.
19. Fukuyama, E. (2003). Numerical modeling of earthquake dynamic rupture: Requirements for realistic modeling, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo 78, 167-174.
20. Fukuyama, E. (2007). Fault structure, stress, friction and rupture dynamics of earthquakes, in Advances in Earth Science-From Earthquakes to Global Warming, P. R. Sammonds and J. M. T. Thompson (Editors), Imperial College Press, London, 109-131.
21. Fukuyama, E. (2009). Dynamic rupture propagation of the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquake, in Fault-zone Properties and Earthquake Rupture Dynamics, E. Fukuyama (Editor), International Geophysics Series, 94, Elsevier Academic Press, Burlington, 269-283.
22. Fukuyama, E., and R. Madariaga (1998). Rupture dynamics of a planar fault in a 3D elastic medium: Rate- and slip-weakening friction, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 88, 1-17.
23. Fukuyama, E., and R. Madariaga (2000). Dynamic propagation and interaction of a rupture front on a planar fault, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157, 1959-1979.
24. Fukuyama, E., C. Hashimoto, and M. Matsu'ura (2002). Simulation of the transition of earthquake rupture from quasi-static growth to dynamic propagation, Pure Appl. Geophys. 159, 2057-2066.
25. Harris, R. A., and S. M. Day (1999). Dynamic 3-D simulations of earthquakes on en echelon faults, Geophys. Res. Lett. 26, 2089-2092.
26. Hashimoto, M., and D. D. Jackson (1993). Plate tectonics and crustal deformation around the Japanese islands, J. Geophys. Res. 98, 16,149-16,166.
27. Hashimoto, C., and M. Matsu'ura (2000). 3-D physical modelling of stress accumulation and release processes at transcurrent boundaries, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157, 2125-2147.
28. Hashimoto, C., and M. Matsu'ura (2002). 3-D simulation of earthquake generation cycles and evolution of fault constitutive properties, Pure Appl. Geophys. 159, 2175-2199.
29. Hashimoto, C., and M. Matsu'ura (2006). 3-D Simulation of tectonic loading at convergent plate boundary zones: Internal stress fields in northeast Japan, Pure Appl. Geophys. 163, 1803-1817.
30. Hashimoto, C., K. Fukui, and M. Matsu'ura (2004). 3-D modelling of plate interfaces and numerical simulation of long-term crustal deformation in and around Japan, Pure Appl. Geophys. 161, 2053-2068.
31. Hashimoto, C., A. Noda, T. Sagiya, and M. Matsu'ura (2009). Interplate seismogenic zones along the Kuril-Japan trench inferred from GPS data inversion, Nature Geosci. 2, no. 2, 141-144, doi 10.1038/ngeo421.
32. Honda, R., S. Aoi, N. Morikawa, H. Sekiguchi, T. Kunugi, and H. Fujiwara (2004). Ground motion and rupture process of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake obtained from strong motion data of K-NET and KiK-net, Earth Planets Space 56, no. 3, 317-322.
33. Horikawa, H. (2004). Fault geometry and slip distribution of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake as deduced from teleseismic body waves, Earth Planets Space 56, no. 11, 1011-1017.
34. Ida, Y. (1972). Cohesive force across the tip of a longitudinal-shear crack and Griffith specific surface energy, J. Geophys. Res. 77, 3796-3805.
35. Iwasaki, T., N. Hirata, T. Kanazawa, T. Urabe, Y. Motoya, and H. Shimamura (1991). Earthquake distribution in the subduction zone off eastern Hokkaido, Japan, deduced from ocean-bottom seismographic and land observations, Geophys. J. Int. 105, 693-711.
36. Kame, N., and T. Yamashita (1999). Simulation of the spontaneous growth of a dynamic crack without constraints on the crack tip path, Geophys. J. Int. 139, 345-358.
37. Kawase, H. (1996). The cause of the damage belt in Kobe: "The basin-edge effect," constructive interference of the direct S-wave with the basin- induced diffracted/Rayleigh waves, Seism. Res. Lett. 67, no. 5, 25-34.
38. Koketsu, K., K. Hikima, S. Miyazaki, and S. Ide (2004). Joint inversion of strong motion and geodetic data for the source process of the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Hokkaido, earthquake, Earth Planets Space 56, no. 3, 329-334.
39. Lapusta, N., J. R. Rice, Y. Ben-Zion, and G. Zheng (2000). Elastodynamic analysis for slow tectonic loading with spontaneous rupture episodes on faults with rate- and state-dependent friction, J. Geophys. Res. 105, no. B10, 23,765-23,789.
40. Ludwig, W. J., J. E. Nafe, and C. L. Drake (1970). Seismic refraction, in The Sea, A. Maxwell (Editor), Wiley InterScience, New York, 4, no. 1, 53-84.
41. Matsu'ura, M., and T. Sato (1989). A dislocation model for the earthquake cycle at convergent plate boundaries, Geophys. J. Int. 96, 23-32.
42. Matsu'ura, M., H. Kataoka, and B. Shibazaki (1992). Slip-dependent friction law and nucleation processes in earthquake rupture, Tectonophysics 211,135-148.
43. Mikumo, T., and T. Miyatake (1978). Dynamical rupture process on a threedimensional fault with non-uniform frictions and near-field seismic waves, Geophys. J. R. Astr. Soc. 54, 417-438.
44. Miyazaki, S., K. M. Larson, K. Choi, K. Hikima, K. Koketsu, P. Bodin, J. Haase, G. Emore, and A. Yamagiwa (2004). Modeling the rupture process of the 2003 September 25 Tokachi-Oki (Hokkaido) earthquake using 1-Hz GPS data, Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L21603, doi 10.1029/ 2004GL021457.
45. Morikawa, N., H. Fujiwara, S. Kawai, S. Aoi, T. Kunugi, T. Ishii, H. Hayakawa, R. Honda, K. Kobayashi, M. Ooi, S. Senna, and N. Okumura (2007). Application of the strong-motion prediction method to the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, Technical Note of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention 303, 1-149, http://www.bosai.go.jp/library/pub/ technical_note/PDF/n303.pdf (in Japanese).
46. Oglesby, D. D., and S. M. Day (2002). Stochastic fault stress: Implications for fault dynamics and ground motion, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 92, no. 8, 3006-3021.
47. Oglesby, D. D., R. J. Archuleta, and S. B. Nielsen (1998). Earthquake on dipping fault: The effects of broken symmetry, Science 280, 1055-1059.
48. Ohnaka, M., Y. Kuwahara, and K. Yamamoto (1987). Constitutive relations between dynamic physical parameters near a tip of the propagating slip zone during stick-slip shear failure, Tectonophysics 144, 109-125.
49. Okada, H., S. Suzuki, T. Moriya, and S. Asano (1973). Crustal structure in the profile across the southern part of Hokkaido, Japan, as derived from explosion seismic observation, J. Phys. Earth 21, 329-354.
50. Olsen, K. B., S. M. Day, J. B. Minster, Y. Cui, A. Chourasia, D. Okaya, P. Maechling, and T. Jordan (2008). TeraShake2: Spontaneous rupture simulations of Mw 7.7 earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98, no. 3, 1162-1185, doi 10.1785/ 0120070148.
51. Ozawa, S., M. Kaidzu, M. Murakami, T. Imakiire, and Y. Hatanaka (2004). Coseismic and postseismic crustal deformation after the M 8 Tokachioki earthquake in Japan, Earth Planets Space 56, no. 7, 675-680.
52. Pitarka, A., K. Irikura, T. Iwata, and H. Sekiguchi (1998). Three-dimensional simulation of the near-fault ground motion for the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe), Japan, earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 88, no. 2, 428-440.
53. Power, W. L., T. E. Tullis, S. R. Brown, G. N. Boitnott, and C. H. Scholz (1987). Roughness of natural fault surfaces, Geophys. Res. Lett. 14, 29-32.
54. Satake, K., K. Hirata, S. Yamaki, and Y. Tanioka (2006). Re-estimation of tsunami source of the 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake, Earth Planets Space 58, 535-542.
55. Sato, T., and M. Masu'ura (1993). A kinematic model for evolution of island arc-trench systems, Geophys. J. Int. 114, 512-530.
56. Savage, J. C. (1983). A dislocation model of strain accumulation and release at a subduction zone, J. Geophys. Res. 88, 4984-4996.
57. Somerville, P., K. Irikura, R. Graves, S. Sawada, D. Wald, N. Abrahamson, Y. Iwasaki, T. Kagawa, N. Smith, and A. Kowada (1999). Characterizing crustal earthquake slip models for the prediction of strong ground motion, Seismol. Res. Lett. 70, no. 1, 59-80.
58. Tada, T. (2006). Stress Green's functions for a constant slip rate on a triangular fault, Geophys. J. Int. 164, 653-669.
59. Tada, T., E. Fukuyama, and R. Madariaga (2000). Non-hypersingular boundary integral equations for 3D non-planar crack dynamics, Comput. Mechan. 25, 613-626.
60. Yagi, Y. (2004). Source rupture process of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake determined by joint inversion of teleseismic body wave and strong ground motion data, Earth Planets Space 56, no. 3, 311-316.
61. Yamanaka, Y., and M. Kikuchi (2003). Source process of the recurrent Tokachi-oki earthquake on September 26, 2003, inferred from teleseismic body waves, Earth Planets Space 55, no. 12, E21-E24.
62. Yamanaka, H., K. Seo, and T. Samano (1989). Effects of sedimentary layers on surface-wave propagation, Bull. Seismol Soc. Am. 79, 631-644.