Finding a serial burglar's home using distance decay and conditional origin-destination patterns: A test of empirical Bayes journey-to-crime estimation in the Hague

Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling

Volumn 6, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 187-211

  Block, Richard ^a   Bernasco, Wim ^b  

^a LOYOLA UNIVERSITY CHICAGO   (United States)

^b NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF CRIME AND LAW ENFORCEMENT   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Burglary; CrimeStat; Geographic profiling; Journey to crime; Serial offenders; The Hague; The Netherlands

Indexed keywords

EID: 70450173146     PISSN: 15444759     EISSN: 15444767     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/jip.108     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Bennell, C., Taylor, P. J., & Snook, B. (2007). Clinical versus actuarial geographic profiling strate-gies: A review of the research. Police Practice and Research, 8, 335-345. DOI: 10.1080/15614 260701615037.
2. Bennell, C., Snook, B., Taylor, P. J., Corey, S., & Keyton, J. (2007). It's no riddle, choose the middle: The effect of number of crimes and topographical detail on police officer predic-tions of serial burglars' home locations. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 119-132. DOI:10.1177/0093854806290161.
3. Bernasco, W. (2006). Co-offending and the choice of target areas in burglary. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, 3, 139-155. DOI: 10.1002/jip.49.
4. Bernasco, W. (2007). The usefulness of measuring spatial opportunity structures for tracking down offenders: A theoretical analysis of geographic offender profiling using simulation studies. Psychology, Crime & Law, 13, 155-171. DOI: 10.1080/10683160600558402.
5. Bernasco, W., & Block, R. (2009). Where offenders choose to attack: A discrete choice model of robberies in Chicago. Criminology, 47, 93-113. DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2009.00140.x.
6. Bernasco, W., & Nieuwbeerta, P. (2005). How do residential burglars select target areas: A new approach to the analysis of location choice. British Journal of Criminology, 45, 296-315. DOI: 10.1093/bjc/azh070.
7. Brantingham, P. L., & Brantingham, P. J. (1984). Patterns in crime. New York: Macmillan Publishing.
8. Brantingham, P. L., & Brantingham, P. J. (1999). A theoretical model of crime hot spot generation. Studies on Crime and Crime Prevention, 8, 7-26.
9. Canter, D., & Larkin, P. (1993). The environmental range of serial rapists. Journal of Environmental Psychology, 13, 63-69.
10. Canter, D., Coffey, T., Huntley, M., & Missen, C. (2000). Predicting serial killers' home base using a decision support system. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 16, 457-478.
11. Canter, D. V. (2003). Dragnet. Retrieved June 20, 2009 from Centre of Investigative Psychology web site at http://www.i-psy.com/publications/publications_dragnet.php
12. Cornish, D., & Clarke, R. (1986). The reasoning criminal. New York: Spring Verlag.
13. ECRI (2002). What is Rigel? Retrieved June 20, 2009 from Environmental Criminology Research Inc. web site at http://www.ecricanada.com/rigel/index.html
14. Elffers, H., Reynald, D., Averdijk, M., Bernasco, W., & Block, R. (2008). Modelling crime flow between neighbourhoods in terms of distance and of intervening opportunities. Crime Prevention and Community Safety, 10, 85-96. DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.cpcs.8150062.
15. rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
16. Harries, K., & LeBeau, J. (2007). Issues in the geographic profiling of crime: Review and commentary. Police Practice and Research, 8, 321-333. DOI: 10.1080/15614260701615029.
17. Leitner, M. (2009). Assessment and evaluation of individually calibrated journey to crime geographic profiling models. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, 6, forthcoming.
18. Levine, N. (2005). The evaluation of geographic profiling software: Response to Kim Rossmo's critique of the NIJ methodology. Retrieved June 20, 2009 from Ned Levine & Associates web site at http://www.nedlevine.com/Response%20to%20Kim%20Rossmo%20Critique%20of%20the%20GP%20Evaluation%20Methodology.May%208%202005.doc
19. Levine, N. (2007). CrimeStat: Version 3.1: Spatial statistics program for the analysis of crime locations. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice.
20. Levine, N. (2009). Introduction to the special issue on Bayesian journey-to-crime estimation. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, 6, this issue.
21. Levine, N., & Block, R. (Forthcoming). Bayesian journey to crime estimation: An improvement in geographic profiling methodology. The Professional Geographer, forthcoming.
22. Levine, N., & Lee, P. (2009). Bayesian journey-to-crime modeling of juvenile and adult offenders by gender in Manchester. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, 6, this issue.
23. McFadden, D. (1973). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In P. Zarembka (Ed.), Frontiers in econometrics (pp. 105-142). New York: Academic Press.
24. Paulsen, D. (2006a). Connecting the dots: Assessing the accuracy of geographic profiling software. Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies and Management, 20, 306-334. DOI: 10.1108/13639510610667682.
25. Paulsen, D. (2006b). Human versus machine: A comparison of the accuracy of geographic profiling methods. Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling, 3, 77-89. DOI: 10.1002/ jip.46.
26. Paulsen, D. (2007). Improving geographic profiling through commuter/marauder prediction. Police Practice and Research, 8, 347-357. DOI: 10.1080/15614260701615045.
27. Reynald, D., Averdijk, M., Elffers, H., & Bernasco, W. (2008). Do social barriers affect urban crime trips? The effects of ethnic and economic neighbourhood compositions on the flow of crime in The Hague, The Netherlands. Built Environment, 34, 21-31. DOI: 10.2148/benv.34.1.21.
28. Rich, T., & Shively, M. (2004). A methodology for evaluating geographic profiling software. Cam-bridge, MA: Abt Associates Inc.; Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice. Retrieved June 20, 2009 from the US National Institute of Justice web site at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/nij/maps/gp.pdf
29. Rossmo, D. K. (2000). Geographic profiling. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
30. Rossmo, D. K. (2005). Geographic heuristics or shortcuts to failure?: Response to Snook et al. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19, 651-654. DOI: 10.1002/acp.1144.
31. Snook, B., Taylor, P., & Bennell, C. (2004). Geographic profiling: The fast, fugal and accurate way. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 18, 105-121. DOI: 10.1002/acp.956.
32. Snook, B., Zito, M., Bennell, C., & Taylor, P. (2005). On the complexity and accuracy of geographic profiling strategies. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 21, 1-26. DOI: 10.1007/s10940-004- 1785-4.
33. Van Dijk, J., Van Kesteren, J., & Smit, P. (2007). Criminal victimization in perspective: Key findings from the 2004-2005 ICVS and EU ICS. Meppel, The Netherlands: Boom Juridische Uitgevers.
34. Warren, J., Reboussin, R., Hazelwood, R. R., Cummings, A., Gibbs, N., & Trumbetta, S. (1998). Crime scene and distance correlates of serial rape. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 14, 35-59. DOI: 10.1023/A:1023044408529.