The limits of Chinese-Russian partnership

Survival

Volumn 51, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 99-130

  Menon, Rajan ^a  

^a LEHIGH UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 70449589416     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396330903011529     Document Type: Article

References (70)

1. For A.J.P. Taylor's quip see Paul Johnson, '"A War Like No Other": Where Hubris Comes From', New York Times, 23 October 2005.
2. Tellingly, all the communist leaders who eventually bucked Soviet tute-lage (Mao Zedong, Josip Broz Tito of Yugoslavia and Enver Hoxha of Albania) had led independent com-munist movements.
3. Comments at a meeting with members of the Japanese Socialist Party in September 1964. A transcript in translation is available at http://www.osaarchivum.org/files/holdings/300/8/3/text/11-1-113.shtml.
4. Oddly, he omitted mention of Poland
5. This was perhaps a mischievous reference to the 1919 declaration that Lenin's government made, and then failed to implement, that the territories would be handed back.
6. Vladislav Zubok, A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev (Chapel Hill, NC: University of Carolina Press, 2007), p. 210.
7. Interestingly, the Kennedy administration had probed Khrushchev with a similar idea. Vladislav Zubok, A Failed Empire: The Soviet Union in the Cold War from Stalin to Gorbachev (Chapel Hill, NC: University of Carolina Press, 2007), p. 152.
8. Edward N. Luttwak, The Grand Strategy of the Soviet Union (New York: St Martin's Press, 1984).
9. For details, see Rajan Menon, 'New Thinking and Northeast Asian Security', Problems of Communism, vol. 38, nos 2-3, March-June 1989, pp. 1-16.
10. See, for example, Ariel Cohen, The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty: A Strategic Shift in Eurasia?, Heritage Foundation Backgrounder no. 1459, 18 July 2001
11. A particularly hyperbolic assessment of the partner-ship was provided by the economic historian Niall Ferguson, who, in September 2008, likened it to the Ribbentrop-Molotov pact of 1939, adding for good measure that it was a greater threat to the West than the financial crisis that is unfolding. See
12. 'Leading Historian Issues Warning of New Cold War', Sunday Herald, 6 September 2008, http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2442300.0.leading_historian_issues_warning_of_a_new_cold_war.php.
13. The thalweg is the deepest channel of a river. The 'thalweg principle' refers to using the middle course of the deepest channel that serves as the boundary between states as the demarcation line.
14. For a comprehensive elaboration, including a rejection of universal conceptions of human rights and democracy
15. Vladislav Surkov, 'Russian Political Culture: The View from Utopia', Russian Social Science Review, vol. 49, no. 6, November-December 2008, pp. 81-97.
16. For China's position on the Responsibilty to Protect during the Security Council debate following the adoption of Resolution 1674
17. April 2006, see 'Statement by Ambassador Liu Zhenmin at the Security Council Open Debate on "Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict"', http://www.china-un.org/eng/xw/t282528.htm.
18. On Zimbabwe, see 'Russian Ambassador Challenges R2P Principle', http://www.ir2p.org/2008/07/18/russian-ambassador-challenges-r2p-principle/.
19. On the 1995 NATO strikes and Yeltsin's reaction, see 'Yeltsin Condemns NATO Air Strikes', Yugoslav Daily Survey, 8 September 1999, http://www.hri.org/news/balkans/yds/1995/95-09-08.yds.txt.
20. On his condemnation of NATO's attacks on Serbia during the 1999 war over Kosovo, see Francis X. Clines, 'Conflict in the Balkans: The Overview; NATO Opens Broad Barrage against Serbs as Clinton Denounces Yugoslav President', New York Times, 25 March 1999.
21. For a thorough analysis, see Anthony S. Cordesman and Martin Kleiber, Chinese Military Modernization and Strategic Capabilities (Washington DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2007).
22. For details, see Rajan Menon and Alexander Motyl, 'The Myth of Russian Resurgence', American Interest, vol. 2, no. 4, March-April 2007, pp. 96-101.
23. See David Lague and Susan V. Lawrence, 'In Guns We Trust', Far Eastern Economic Review, 12 December 2002
24. Cohen, The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty
25. Peter Brookes, 'The Alarming Alliance: Sino-Russian Ties Tightening', New York Post, 15 August 2005, http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed081505a.cfm
26. Rajan Menon, 'The Strategic Convergence Between Russia and China', Survival, vol. 39, no. 2, Summer 1997, pp. 109-15.
27. Russia Sets New Record with Arms Exports in 2008', Pravda.ru, 22 October 2008, http://english.pravda.ru/russia/economics/22-10-2008/106603-arms_export-0.
28. Richard Lague, 'Russia and China Rethink Arms Sales', International Herald Tribune, 2 March 2008.
29. Richard Lague, 'Russia and China Rethink Arms Sales', International Herald Tribune, 2 March 2008.
30. Details from Stephen J. Blank, 'Recent Trends in Russo-Chinese Military Relations', China Brief, vol. 9, no. 2, January 2009, 45
31. For the specifications on the Backfire-C, see 'Tupolev TU22M3 Bomber Missile Carrier Backfire C', Air Power Australia, http://ausairpower.net/APA-Backfire.html.
32. Claire Bigg, 'Russia: Joint Military Exercises with China a Result of New Strategic Partnership', Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 18 August 2005, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1060767.html.
33. Ibid.; 'Russia, China Hold Military Exercise', International Herald Tribune, 17 August 2007.
34. Stephen Blank, 'Moscow's Strategic Triangle in a Time of Transition', East Asian Affairs, vol. 22, no. 1, Spring-Summer 2008, pp. 109, 131-2
35. India has been an unenthusiastic par-ticipant in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with India's president absenting himself from the 2006 and 2007 summits.
36. Freedom House, Freedom in the World Uzbekistan (2005), http://www.freedomhouse.org/uploads/WoW/2005/Uzbekistan2005.pdf.
37. For Fallon's visit and Karimov's soothing words about the state of Uzbekistan's relationship with the West, see 'US-Uzbekistan Relations: Another Step Toward Rapprochement?', EurasiaNet.org, 23 January 2008, http://www.eurasianet. org/departments/insight/articles/eav012308b.shtml.
38. NATO, 'NATO and Kazakhstan Hold Peacekeeping Exercise', 1 October 2008, http://www.nato.int/docu/update/2008/09-september/e0915e.html.
39. See Sebastian Péyrouse, Economic Aspects of China-Central Asia Rapprochement, Central AsiaCaucasus Institute Silk Road Paper (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University, September 2007), p. 12
40. Pan Guang, 'China and Central Asia: Charting a New Course for Regional Cooperation', lecture at the Jamestown Foundation, Washington DC, 5 February 2007; report available at http://www.jamestown.org/media/events/.
41. On Russia's opposition to the Ayni base, see Sudha Ramachandran, 'Russian Turbulence for Indian Airbase', Asia Times Online, 1 February 2008, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JB01Ag01.html.
42. Andrew Kramer, 'Chinese Company's Bid for PetroKazakhstan is Approved', New York Times, 27 October 2005.
43. A small detail: the Kazakhs subse-quently insisted that the Chinese firm give them a controlling interest in the venture. My thanks to Professor Charles Ziegler for pointing this out.
44. Details in Le Tian, 'Turkmenistan Energy Deals Signed', China Daily, 18 July 2007, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-07/18/content_5438174. htm
45. Daniel Kimmage, 'Central Asia: Turkmenistan-China Pipeline Project Has Far-Reaching Implications', Radio Free Europe/RadioLiberty, 10 April 2006, http://www.rferl.org/content/article/1067535.html.
46. Richard Weitz, 'Russia China End Decades-Long Border Dispute', Inteldaily.com, 1 August 2008, http://www.inteldaily.com/news/164/ARTICLE/7762/2008-08-01.html.
47. For the background of the border dispute from the Treaty of Nerchinsk to Gorbachev's Vladivostok speech, see Neville Maxwell, 'How the Sino-Russian Border Dispute Was Finally Settled', in Iwashita Akihiro (ed.), Eager Eyes Fixed on Eurasia: Russia and Its Eastern Edge, vol. 2 (Sapporo: Slavic Research Center, Hokkaido University, 2007), pp. 47-72.
48. Menon, 'Strategic Convergence', pp. 103-104.
49. See Rajan Menon, 'The Sick Man of Asia', National Interest, no. 73, Fall 2003, pp. 93-105.
50. Sergei Blagov, 'Russia's Far Eastern Workers Wary of Chinese Migrants', Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 4, no. 234, 18 December 2007.
51. For a detailed discussion of Chinese migration into the Russian Far East, see Pavel Minakir, 'Chinese Emigration in the Russian Far East: Regional, National, and International Dimensions', in Jeremy R. Azrael and Emil Payin (eds), Cooperation and Conflict in the Former Soviet Union: Implications for Migration (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1996), http://www.rand.org/pubs/conf_proceedings/CF130/CF130ch7.pdf
52. Elizabeth Wishnick, Chinese Migration to the Russian Far East: A Human Security Dilemma (Monterey, CA: Monterey Institute Center for East Asian Studies, 2002), http://gsti.miis.edu/CEAS-PUB/200209Wishnick.pdf.
53. Vladimir Portyakov, 'Are the Chinese Coming? Migration Processes in Russia's Far East', International Affairs (Moscow), vol. 42, no. 1, January-February 1996, pp. 132, 136.
54. Blagov, 'Russia's Far Eastern Workers'.
55. US-China Business Council, 'China's Trade Performance', June 2007, http://www.uschina.org/info/analysis/2007/june-trade-performance.html
56. US Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, 'US-China Trade, 1989-2006', Figure 1, http://www.bts.gov/publications/bts_special_report/2008_007/html/figure_01.html.
57. 'China Upbeat on Trade Growth with Russia', People's Daily Online, 22 March 2006, http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200603/22/eng20060322_252660.html
58. China Russia Trade Reaches $34.9 bln in First Nine Months', http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-11/01/content_6991990.htm.
59. Libor Krokoska and Yevgenia Kornyenko, 'China's Investments in Russia; Where Do they Go and How Important Are They?', China and Russia Eurasia Forum Quarterly, vol. 6, no. 1, 2008, pp. 39-42.
60. 'China Upbeat on Trade Growth'.
61. Sergei Blagov, 'Russia and China: United by Foreign Policy, Divided by Energy', Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 5, no. 100, 27 May 2008.
62. 'China, Russia Strike $25 Billion Oil Pact', Wall Street Journal, 18 February 2009.
63. For details on ESOP and the Altai pipeline, see Blagov A,'Russia and China'; breitbart.com, 28 October 2008.
64. Blagov A.'Russia-China Sign Landmark Oil Pipeline Deal', breitbart.com, 28 October 2008, http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=081028133121.43iggtc&show_article=1
65. 'Russia to Begin Oil Pipeline in 2008 Minister', AFX News, http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/07/09/afx3895290.html
66. Sergey Sevastyanov, 'The More Assertive and Pragmatic New Energy Policy in Putin's Russia: Security Implications for Northeast Asia', East Asia: An International Quarterly, vol. 25, no. 1, April 2008, pp. 35-55;
67. Sergey Sevastyanov, China to Pay More for Gas than Europe, Kommesant, 2 July 2008, http://www.kommersant.com/p-12761/Gas_price_China/.
68. The details on this transaction are from John Helmer, 'Dances with Bears: Oil to China is a Race Against Time', Asia Times, 25 October 2002, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/DJ25Ag01.html.
69. The fields are estimated to hold 7bn barrels of oil and 80 trillion cubic feet of gas. For estimates of oil and gas reserves in the waters off Sakhalin, a list of the Russian and non-Russian companies involved in the various ventures, and the distribution of equity, see US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 'Sakhalin Island: General Background', http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Sakhalin/Background.html.
70. Blank'Moscow's Strategic Triangle', p. 125.