Modelling the black death. A historical case study and implications for the epidemiology of bubonic plague

International Journal of Medical Microbiology

Volumn 299, Issue 8, 2009, Pages 582-593

  Monecke, Stefan ^a   Monecke, Hannelore ^b   Monecke, Jochen ^c  

^a DRESDEN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Germany)

^b the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg ^*  (Germany)

^c TU BERGAKADEMIE FREIBERG   (Germany)

Author keywords

Disease modelling; Epidemiology; Plague; Yersinia pestis

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; EPIDEMIC; FLEA; GERMANY; HUMAN; INDIA; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; PLAGUE; YERSINIA;

ANIMALS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; FEMALE; FLEAS; GERMANY; HISTORY, 17TH CENTURY; HUMANS; MALE; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PLAGUE; RATS; ZOONOSES;

EID: 70350567773     PISSN: 14384221     EISSN: 16180607     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijmm.2009.05.003     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Abel R. Was wussten unsere Vorfahren von der Empfänglichkeit der Ratten und Mäuse für die Beulenpest des Menschen?. Medical Microbiology and Immunology 36 (1901) 89-119
2. Aberth J. The Black Death. The Great Mortality of 1348-1350. A Brief History with Documents (2005), Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills
3. Achtman M., Zurth K., Morelli G., Torrea G., Guiyoule A., and Carniel E. Yersinia pestis, the cause of plague, is a recently emerged clone of Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 96 (1999) 14043-14048
4. Alonso J.M., Hurtrel B., Mazigh D., Chalvignac M.A., and Mollaret H.H. Temperature-modulated immunogenicity to Yersinia pestis from Yersinia enterocolitica O3. Infect. Immun. 36 (1982) 423-425
5. Anonymous. Statistical Abstract Relating to British India from 1894-95 to 1903-04 (1905), Her Majesty's Stationary Office, London
6. Anonymous. Statistical Abstract Relating to British India from 1903-04 to 1912-13 (1915), His Majesty's Stationary Office, London
7. Begier E.M., Asiki G., Anywaine Z., Yockey B., Schriefer M.E., Aleti P., Ogden-Odoi A., Staples J.E., Sexton C., Bearden S.W., and Kool J.L. Pneumonic plague cluster, Uganda, 2004. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 12 (2006) 460-467
8. Benedictow O. The Black Death 1346-1353: The Complete History (2004), The Boydell Press, Woodbridge
9. Bianucci R., Rahalison L., Ferroglio E., Massa E.R., and Signoli M. A rapid diagnostic test for plague detects Yersinia pestis F1 antigen in ancient human remains. C. R. Biol. 330 (2007) 747-754 [in French]
10. Bianucci R., Rahalison L., Massa E.R., Peluso A., Ferroglio E., and Signoli M. Technical note: a rapid diagnostic test detects plague in ancient human remains: an example of the interaction between archeological and biological approaches (southeastern France, 16th-18th centuries). Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 136 (2008) 361-367
11. Butler, T., 1995. Yersinia species (including plague), In: Mandell, Douglas, and Bennett's Principles and Practice of Infectious Diseases, vol. 2, Churchill Livingstone, New York.
12. Cantor N. In the Wake of the Plague: The Black Death and the World It Made (2001), Free Press, London
13. Chandler A.C., and Read C.P. Introduction to Parasitology (1961), John Wiley & Sons, New York
14. Chanteau S., Ratsifasoamanana L., Rasoamanana B., Rahalison L., Randriambelosoa J., Roux J., and Rabeson D. Plague, a reemerging disease in Madagascar. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 4 (1998) 101-104
15. Christakos G., and Olea R.A. New space-time perspectives on the propagation characteristics of the Black Death epidemic and its relation to bubonic plague. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA) V 19 (2005) 307-314
16. Curson P., and McCracken K. Plague in Sydney: the Anatomy of an Epidemic (1989), University of New South Wales Press, Sydney
17. Drancourt M., and Raoult D. Molecular insights into the history of plague. Microbes Infect 4 (2002) 105-109
18. Duncan C.J., and Scott S. What caused the Black Death?. Postgrad. Med. J. 81 (2005) 315-320
19. Eisen R.J., Bearden S.W., Wilder A.P., Montenieri J.A., Antolin M.F., and Gage K.L. Early-phase transmission of Yersinia pestis by unblocked fleas as a mechanism explaining rapidly spreading plague epizootics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103 (2006) 15380-15385
20. Engelthaler D.M., Hinnebusch B.J., Rittner C.M., and Gage K.L. Quantitative competitive PCR as a technique for exploring flea-Yersinia pestis dynamics. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 62 (2000) 552-560
21. Fukushima H., Hao Q., Wu K., Hu X., Chen J., Guo Z., Dai H., Qin C., Lu S., and Gomyoda M. Yersinia enterocolitica O9 as a possible barrier against Y. pestis in natural plague foci in Ningxia, China. Curr. Microbiol. 42 (2001) 1-7
22. Gilbert M.T., Cuccui J., White W., Lynnerup N., Titball R.W., Cooper A., and Prentice M.B. Absence of Yersinia pestis-specific DNA in human teeth from five European excavations of putative plague victims. Microbiology 150 (2004) 341-354
23. Grassly N.C., and Fraser C. Mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. Nat. Rev. Microbiol. 6 (2008) 477-487
24. Hingst C. Freibergs Bevölkerung im 16. Jahrhundert. Mitteilungen des Freiberger Altertumsvereins 6 (1869) 571-578
25. Hingst C. Die Verheerungen der Pest im Gebirge, besonders in und um Freiberg. Mitteilungen des Freiberger Altertumsvereins 16 (1879) 1-22
26. Hinnebusch B.J. Bubonic plague: a molecular genetic case history of the emergence of an infectious disease. J. Mol. Med. 75 (1997) 645-652
27. Hirst L. Plague vol. 9 (1938), Butterworth, London
28. Holling C.S. The functional response of predators to prey density and its role in mimicry and population regulation. Mem. Entomol. Soc. Canada 45 (1965) 1-60
29. Ibn Battutah, and Mackintosh-Smith T. The Travels of Ibn Battutah (2003), Picador, London
30. Ibn Khaldun, Dawood N.J., Lawrence B.B., and Rosenthal F. The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History (2004), Princeton University Press, Princeton
31. Keeling M.J., and Gilligan C.A. Bubonic plague: a metapopulation model of a zoonosis. Proc. R. Soc. B 267 (2000) 2219-2230
32. Keeling M.J., and Gilligan C.A. Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague. Nature 407 (2000) 903-906
33. Kelly J. The Great Mortality: An Intimate History of the Black Death (2006), HarperPerennial, London
34. Kermack W.O., and McKendrick A.G. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. London A 115A (1927) 700-721
35. Laudisoit A., Leirs H., Makundi R.H., Van Dongen S., Davis S., Neerinckx S., Deckers J., and Libois R. Plague and the human flea, Tanzania. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 13 (2007) 687-693
36. Lehmann C. Christian Lehmanns historischer Schauplatz derer natürlichen Merckwürdigkeiten in dem Meißnischen Ober-Erzgebirge darinnen eine außführliche Beschreibung dieser gantzen gebirgischen und angräntzenden Gegend ... enthalten (1699), Elterlein, Leipzig/Stuttgart
37. Lehmann, C., 1991. Erzgebirgsannalen des 17. Jahrhunderts. In: Obst, H. (Ed.), Von Unwettern, Tieren in Wald und Haus, Kuriositäten, Pestilenzen und Spukereien. Verlags-Anstalt Union, Berlin.
38. Loosjes F.E. Is the brown rat (Rattus norvegicus Berkenhout) responsible for the disappearance of plague from Western Europe?. Doc. Med. Geogr. Trop. 8 (1956) 175-178
39. Lorange E.A., Race B.L., Sebbane F., and Joseph Hinnebusch B. Poor vector competence of fleas and the evolution of hypervirulence in Yersinia pestis. J. Infect. Dis. 191 (2005) 1907-1912
40. Mollaret H.H. A personal view of the history of the genus Yersinia. Contrib. Microbiol. Immunol. 9 (1987) 1-13 [in French]
41. Möller, A., 1653. Theatrum Freibergense Chronicum. Beschreibung der alten löblichen Berghauptstadt Freyberg in Meissen, Freiberg.
42. Nishiura H. Epidemiology of a primary pneumonic plague in Kantoshu, Manchuria, from 1910 to 1911: statistical analysis of individual records collected by the Japanese Empire. Int. J. Epidemiol. 35 (2006) 1059-1065
43. Nowak M.A., and May R.M. Virus Dynamics (2000), Oxford University Press, Oxford
44. Paterson R. Yersinia seeks pardon for Black Death. Lancet Infect. Dis. 2 (2002) 323
45. Perry R.D., and Fetherston J.D. Yersinia pestis - etiologic agent of plague. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 10 (1997) 35-66
46. Pieper W. Ulrich Rülein von Calw und sein Bergbüchlein: mit Urtext-Faksimile und Übertragung des Bergbüchleins von etwa 1500 und Faksimile der Pestschrift von 1521 (1955), Akademie-Verlag, Berlin
47. Prentice M.B., Gilbert T., and Cooper A. Was the Black Death caused by Yersinia pestis?. Lancet Infect. Dis 4 (2004) 72
48. Pusch C.M., Rahalison L., Blin N., Nicholson G.J., and Czarnetzki A. Yersinial F1 antigen and the cause of Black Death. Lancet Infect. Dis. 4 (2004) 484-485
49. Raoult D., Aboudharam G., Crubezy E., Larrouy G., Ludes B., and Drancourt M. Molecular identification by 'suicide PCR' of Yersinia pestis as the agent of medieval black death. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 97 (2000) 12800-12803
50. Raoult D., and Drancourt M. Cause of Black Death. Lancet Infect. Dis. 2 (2002) 459
51. Ratsitorahina M., Chanteau S., Rosso M.L., Randriambelosoa J., Ratsifasoamanana L., Rabarijaona L.P., Mauclere P., and Migliani R. Epidemiological data on the plague in Madagascar. Arch. Inst. Pasteur Madagascar 68 (2002) 51-54
52. Rosen W. Justinian's Flea: Plague, Empire, and the Birth of Europe (2007), Viking, New York
53. Schuster R. Grundkurs Biomathematik (1995), B.G. Teubner, Stuttgart
54. Slack P. The Black Death past and present. 2. Some historical problems. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 83 (1989) 461-463
55. The Plague Commission. The Etiology and Epidemiology of Plague - A Summary of the Work of the Plague Commission (1908), Government Printing, India, Calcutta
56. Thiel U. Freiberg zwischen 1484 und der Mitte des 17. Jahrhunderts unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Baugeschehens. In: Hoffmann Y., and Richter U. (Eds). Stadt Freiberg. Denkmale in Sachsen (2002), Werbung & Verlag, Freiberg
57. Twigg, G., 1992. Plague in London: spatial and temporal aspects of mortality. In: Epidemic Disease in London: from the Black Death to Cholera, London.
58. Twigg G. The Black Death and DNA. Lancet Infect. Dis. 3 (2003) 11
59. Verhulst P.F. Recherches mathématiques sur la loi d'accroissement de la population. Nouveaux Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences et Belles-lettres de Bruxelles Series 2 (1845) 3-38
60. Winkle S. Kulturgeschichte der Seuchen (2000), Komet, Düsseldorf/Zürich
61. Wood J., and DeWitte-Avina S. Was the Black Death yersinial plague?. Lancet Infect. Dis. 3 (2003) 327-328 Discussion 328