A price-based approach to generation investment planning in electricity markets

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

Volumn 23, Issue 4, 2008, Pages 1859-1870

  Fonseka, P A J ^a   Saha, T K ^a   Dong, Z Y ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

Author keywords

Dynamic programming; Electricity markets; Generation planning; Monte Carlo simulation

Indexed keywords

AUSTRALIA; CENTRALIZED RESOURCES; ELECTRICITY MARKET; ELECTRICITY MARKETS; GENERATION INVESTMENT; GENERATION PLANNING; ILLUSTRATIVE CASE; INTERRUPTION COSTS; INVESTMENT DECISIONS; INVESTMENT PLAN; MONTE CARLO SIMULATION; NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKETS; OPTIMAL PLAN; OPTIMAL TIME; QUEENSLAND; TECHNICAL DETAILS; UNCERTAIN VARIABLES;

COMMERCE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; COST ACCOUNTING; DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING; ELECTRIC GENERATORS; FORESTRY; MONTE CARLO METHODS; PLANNING; RESOURCE ALLOCATION; SYSTEMS ENGINEERING; WIRELESS TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEMS;

INVESTMENTS;

EID: 70350550501     PISSN: 08858950     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2008.2002287     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. T. W. Parkinson, "Market price risks of merchant generation," Elect. J., vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 33-48, May 2004.
2. Wein Automatic System Planning (WASP) Package: WASP-IV, ser. Computer Manual. Vienna, Austria: International Atomic Energy Agency, 2001.
3. A. Borison and G. Hamm, "Forecasting long-run electricity prices," Elect. J., vol. 19, no. 7, pp. 47-57, Aug./Sep. 2006.
4. C.-L. Tseng and G. Braz, "Short-term generation asset valuation," in Proc. 32nd Hawaii Int. Conf., Maui, HI, Jan. 1999.
5. C.-L. Tseng and G. Braz, "Short-term generation asset valuation: A Real options approach," Oper. Re. J., vol. 50, no. 2, pp. 297-310, 2002.
6. P. Skantze, P. Visudhiphan, and M. Ilic, Valuation of Generation Assets With Unit Commitment Constraints Under Fuel Uncertainty, MIT Energy Laboratory Technical Report El 00-006, 2000. [Online]. Available: http:// lfee.mit.edu/public/el00-006.pdf.
7. A. S. Chuang, F. Wu, and P. Varaiya, "A game-theoretic model for generation expansion planning: Problem formulation and numerical comparisons," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 885-891, Nov. 2001.
8. J. H. Kim, J.-B. Park, J.-K. Park, and S.-K. Joo, "A market-based analysis on generation expansion planning strategies," in Proc. 13th Intelligent Systems Application to Power Systems Conf. (ISAP2005 , Washington, DC, 2005.
9. K. J. Min and C.-H. Wang, "Generation planning for inter-related generation units: A real options approach," in Proc. Power Eng. Soc. Summer Meeting, Seattle, WA, 2000.
10. J. Prina, "Investment decision making in a deregulated electric industry using stochastic dominance," in Proc. IEEE Eng. Manage. Soc. Meeting, Albuquerque, NM, 2000.
11. S. N. Siddiqi, "Project valuation and power management in a competitive market," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 116-121, Feb. 2000.
12. A. Botterud, "Evaluation of investments in new power generation using dynamic and stochastic analyses," in Proc. 8th Int. Conf. Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, Ames, IA, 2004.
13. A. Botterud, M. D. Ilic, and I. Wangensteen, "Optimal investments in power generation under centralized and decentralized decision making," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 20, no. 1, pp. 254-263, Feb. 2005.
14. P. A. J. Fonseka, T. K. Saha, and Z. Y. Dong, "A probabilistic simulation model to identify new generation investments," in Proc. IEEE Power Eng. Soc. General Meeting, Tampa, FL, 2007.
15. 2005 Statement of Opportunities for the National Electricity Market Melbourne, Australia: National Electricity Market Management Company, Ltd., 2005.
16. N. P. Padhy, "Unit commitment - A bibliographical survey," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 1196-1205, May 2004.
17. J. M. Arroyo and A. J. Conejo, "Optimal response of a thermal unit to an electricity spot market," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 15, no. 3, pp. 1098-1104, Aug. 2000.
18. R. Bellman, Dynamic Programming. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press, 1957.
19. A. J. Wood and B. F. Wollenberg, Power Generation, Operation, and Control, 2nd ed. New York: Wiley, 1984.
20. R. Billinton and R. N. Allan, Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems 2nd ed. New York: Plenum, 1996.
21. Report on NEM generator costs (Part 2), Prepared for Inter Regional Planning Committee (IRPC) and NEMMCO, 2005, ACIL Tasman Rep.
22. EPRI, Review and Comparison of Recent Studies for Australian Electricity Generation Planning, Palo Alto, CA, 2006, EPRI Letter Rep..