메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 72, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 638-655

Rational forecasts or social opinion dynamics? Identification of interaction effects in a business climate survey

Author keywords

Business climate; Business cycle forecasts; Opinion formation; Social interactions

Indexed keywords


EID: 70350369760     PISSN: 01672681     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2009.07.003     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (70)

References (43)
  • 2
    • 43049094947 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A noise trader model as a generator of apparent financial power laws and long memory
    • Alfarano S., and Lux T. A noise trader model as a generator of apparent financial power laws and long memory. Macroeconomic Dynamics 11 Suppl. 1 (2007) 80-101
    • (2007) Macroeconomic Dynamics , vol.11 , Issue.SUPPL. 1 , pp. 80-101
    • Alfarano, S.1    Lux, T.2
  • 5
    • 0027770471 scopus 로고
    • Workings of a city: location, education and production
    • Benabou R. Workings of a city: location, education and production. Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (1993) 619-652
    • (1993) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.108 , pp. 619-652
    • Benabou, R.1
  • 6
    • 0142022887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equilibrium concepts for social interaction models
    • Blume L., and Durlauf S. Equilibrium concepts for social interaction models. International Game Theory Review 5 (2003) 193-209
    • (2003) International Game Theory Review , vol.5 , pp. 193-209
    • Blume, L.1    Durlauf, S.2
  • 7
    • 0032396413 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investigating political dynamics using fractional integration methods
    • Box-Steffensmeier J., and Smith R. Investigating political dynamics using fractional integration methods. American Journal of Political Science 42 (1998) 661-689
    • (1998) American Journal of Political Science , vol.42 , pp. 661-689
    • Box-Steffensmeier, J.1    Smith, R.2
  • 8
    • 33846625442 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interaction-based models
    • Heckman J., and Leamer E. (Eds), Elsevier, Amsterdam
    • Brock W., and Durlauf S. Interaction-based models. In: Heckman J., and Leamer E. (Eds). Handbook of Econometrics vol. V (2001), Elsevier, Amsterdam 3297-3380
    • (2001) Handbook of Econometrics , vol.V , pp. 3297-3380
    • Brock, W.1    Durlauf, S.2
  • 9
    • 0034981137 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discrete choice with social interactions
    • Brock W., and Durlauf S. Discrete choice with social interactions. Review of Economic Studies 68 (2001) 235-260
    • (2001) Review of Economic Studies , vol.68 , pp. 235-260
    • Brock, W.1    Durlauf, S.2
  • 10
    • 0037331902 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters
    • Carroll C. Macroeconomic expectations of households and professional forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (2003) 209-248
    • (2003) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.118 , pp. 209-248
    • Carroll, C.1
  • 11
    • 85041117847 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Microfoundations of macroeconomic fluctuations and the laws of probability theory: the principle of large numbers versus rational expectations arbitrage
    • Chen P. Microfoundations of macroeconomic fluctuations and the laws of probability theory: the principle of large numbers versus rational expectations arbitrage. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 49 (2002) 307-326
    • (2002) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization , vol.49 , pp. 307-326
    • Chen, P.1
  • 13
    • 0347623647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating density forecasts with applications to financial risk management
    • Diebold F., Gunther T., and Tay A. Evaluating density forecasts with applications to financial risk management. International Economic Review 39 (1998) 863-883
    • (1998) International Economic Review , vol.39 , pp. 863-883
    • Diebold, F.1    Gunther, T.2    Tay, A.3
  • 16
    • 33845539887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain
    • Gelper S., Lemmens A., and Croux C. Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain. Applied Economics 39 (2007) 1-11
    • (2007) Applied Economics , vol.39 , pp. 1-11
    • Gelper, S.1    Lemmens, A.2    Croux, C.3
  • 17
    • 84986759400 scopus 로고
    • The estimation and application of long-memory time series models
    • Geweke J., and Porter-Hudak S. The estimation and application of long-memory time series models. Journal of Time Series Analysis 4 (1983) 221-238
    • (1983) Journal of Time Series Analysis , vol.4 , pp. 221-238
    • Geweke, J.1    Porter-Hudak, S.2
  • 20
    • 33748053988 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equilibria in systems with social interactions
    • Horst U., and Scheinkman J. Equilibria in systems with social interactions. Journal of Economic Theory 130 (2006) 44-77
    • (2006) Journal of Economic Theory , vol.130 , pp. 44-77
    • Horst, U.1    Scheinkman, J.2
  • 21
    • 39049111583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Queuing, social interactions, and the microstructure of financial markets
    • Horst U., and Rothe C. Queuing, social interactions, and the microstructure of financial markets. Macroeconomic Dynamics 12 (2008) 211-233
    • (2008) Macroeconomic Dynamics , vol.12 , pp. 211-233
    • Horst, U.1    Rothe, C.2
  • 22
    • 0141659203 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ein ökonometrischer Vergleich
    • Hüfner F., Schröder, M., 2002. Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen: Ein ökonometrischer Vergleich. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonime und Statistik 222, pp. 316-336.
    • (2002) Jahrbücher für Nationalökonime und Statistik , vol.222 , pp. 316-336
    • Hüfner, F.1    Schröder, M.2
  • 24
    • 34447637158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seeing the wood for the trees: a critical evaluation of methods to estimate the parameters of stochastic differential equations
    • Hurn A., Jeisman J., and Lindsay K. Seeing the wood for the trees: a critical evaluation of methods to estimate the parameters of stochastic differential equations. Journal of Financial Econometrics 5 (2007) 390-455
    • (2007) Journal of Financial Econometrics , vol.5 , pp. 390-455
    • Hurn, A.1    Jeisman, J.2    Lindsay, K.3
  • 26
    • 85016660810 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transition densities of diffusion processes: numerical comparison of approximation techniques
    • Jensen B., and Poulsen R. Transition densities of diffusion processes: numerical comparison of approximation techniques. Journal of Derivatives 9 (2002) 18-34
    • (2002) Journal of Derivatives , vol.9 , pp. 18-34
    • Jensen, B.1    Poulsen, R.2
  • 27
    • 84960597456 scopus 로고
    • Ants, rationality, and recruitment
    • Kirman A. Ants, rationality, and recruitment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (1993) 137-156
    • (1993) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.118 , pp. 137-156
    • Kirman, A.1
  • 28
  • 29
    • 34547661964 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions, contextual factors and fixed effects
    • Lee L.-F. Identification and estimation of econometric models with group interactions, contextual factors and fixed effects. Journal of Econometrics 140 (2007) 333-374
    • (2007) Journal of Econometrics , vol.140 , pp. 333-374
    • Lee, L.-F.1
  • 30
    • 4043139361 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consumer confidence and consumer spending
    • Ludvigson S. Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (2004) 29-50
    • (2004) Journal of Economic Perspectives , vol.18 , pp. 29-50
    • Ludvigson, S.1
  • 31
    • 0000015564 scopus 로고
    • Herd behaviour, bubbles and crashes
    • Lux T. Herd behaviour, bubbles and crashes. Economic Journal 105 (1995) 881-896
    • (1995) Economic Journal , vol.105 , pp. 881-896
    • Lux, T.1
  • 32
    • 0031280697 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model
    • Lux T. Time variation of second moments from a noise trader/infection model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 22 (1997) 1-38
    • (1997) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , vol.22 , pp. 1-38
    • Lux, T.1
  • 38
    • 1642416606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Expectations, heterogeneous forecast errors, and consumption: micro evidence from the Michigan consumer sentiment surveys
    • Souleles N. Expectations, heterogeneous forecast errors, and consumption: micro evidence from the Michigan consumer sentiment surveys. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36 (2004) 39-72
    • (2004) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , vol.36 , pp. 39-72
    • Souleles, N.1
  • 39
    • 34147122189 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Business cycles and the role of confidence: evidence for Europe
    • Taylor K., and McNabb R. Business cycles and the role of confidence: evidence for Europe. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 69 (2007) 185-208
    • (2007) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , vol.69 , pp. 185-208
    • Taylor, K.1    McNabb, R.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.