China's below-replacement fertility: Recent trends and future prospects

Population and Development Review

Volumn 35, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 605-629

  Morgan, S Philip ^a   Zhigang, Guo ^b   Hayford, Sarah R ^c  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b PEKING UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BIRTH RATE; CHILDBEARING; DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEY; DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION; DEMOGRAPHIC TREND; FAMILY PLANNING; FERTILITY; FUTURE PROSPECT; REPLACEMENT; TREND ANALYSIS;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST;

EID: 70350300633     PISSN: 00987921     EISSN: 17284457     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00298.x     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Billari Francesco, Kohler Hans-Peter. Patterns of low and lowest-low fertility in Europe. Population Studies 2004, 58(2):161-176.
2. Blossfeld Hans-Peter. Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society 2005, London; New York, Routledge
3. Bongaarts John. Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies. Population and Development Review 2001, 27(Supp.):260-281.
4. Bongaarts John. The end of fertility transition in the developed world. Population and Development Review 2002, 28(3):419-443.
5. Bongaarts John. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. 2008, 39-55. pp
6. Bongaarts John, Feeney Feeney. On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review 1998, 24(2):271-291.
7. Bongaarts John, Potter Robert G. Fertility, Biology, and Behavior 1983, New York, Academic Press
8. Cai Yong. An assessment of China's fertility using the Variable-r Method. Demography 2008, 45:271-281.
9. Chu Junhong. Prenatal sex determination and sex-selective abortion in rural central China. Population and Development Review 2001, 27:259-281.
10. Dalla Zuanna Gianpiero, De Rose Alessandra, Racioppi Racioppi. Low fertility and limited diffusion of modern contraception in Italy during the second half of the twentieth century. Journal of Population Research 2005, 22(1):21-48.
11. Entwisle Barbara, Chen Chen. Work patterns following a birth in urban and rural China: A longitudinal study. European Journal of Population 2002, 18(2):99-119.
12. Feeney Griffith, Jianhua Jianhua. Below replacement fertility in China? A close look at recent evidence. Population Studies 1994, 48(3):381-394.
13. Fraser Stewart E. China: Population Education and People 1987, Canberra Publishing and Printing Co.
14. Goldstein Joshua R, Lutz Wolfgang, Rita Testa Maria. The emergence of sub-replacement family size ideals in Europe. Population Research and Policy Review 2003, 22:479-496.
15. Greenhalgh Susan. Fertility as mobility: Sinic transitions. Population and Development Review 1988, 14:629-674.
16. Baochang Baochang, Goldstein Alice, Feng Wang. Fertility: From the 1970s to the 1990s. China: the Many Facets of Demographic Change 1996, in, Boulder, Westview Press
17. Baochang Gu, Hongyan Liu, Baochang Gu, Feng Wang. Overview of two-child fertility policy area studies. An Experiment of Eight Million People 2009, 3-12. in, Beijing, Social Sciences Academic Press, pp., in Chinese with English titles
18. Baochang Gu, Feng Wang, Zhagang Guo, Erli Erli. China's local and national fertility policies at the end of the twentieth century. Population and Development Review 2007, 33:129-147.
19. Zhigang Zhigang. Why the fertility-rates in recent years notably 'pick up': Evaluation of the 2006 national population and family planning survey. zhongguo renkou kexue (Chinese Journal of Population Science) 2009, 33:2-15. in Chinese
20. Hagewen Kellie J, Philip Morgan S. Intended and ideal family size in the United States, 1970-2002. Population and Development Review 2005, 31(3):507-527.
21. Hayford Sarah R, Philip Morgan S. Religiosity and fertility in the United States: The role of fertility intentions. Social Forces 2008, 86(3):1163-1188.
22. Zhenhua Zhenhua. The Collection of Research Papers of 1992 Fertility Sampling Survey in China 1996, China Population Publishing House, in Chinese
23. Jones Gavin W. Delayed marriage and very low fertility in Pacific Asia. Population and Development Review 2007, 33(3):453-478.
24. Keyfitz Nathan. Understanding world models. Sociological Methodology 1978, 9:1-19.
25. Kohler Hans-Peter, Philipov Philipov. Variance effects in the Bongaarts-Feeney formula. Demography 2001, 38:1-16.
26. Merli M Giovanna. Underreporting of births and infant deaths in rural China: Evidence from field research in one county in northern China. The China Quarterly 1998, 155:637-655.
27. Merli M Giovanna, Raftery Adrian E. Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China's population policies. Demography 2000, 37(1):109-126.
28. Merli M Giovanna, Smith Herbert L. Has the Chinese family planning policy been successful in changing fertility preferences?. Demography 2002, 39:557-572.
29. Morgan S Philip. Is low fertility a 21st century demographic crisis?. Demography 2003, 40(4):589-603.
30. Morgan S Philip, Hagewen Kellie J, Booth A, Crouter A C. Is very low fertility inevitable in America? Insights and forecasts from an integrative model of fertility. The New Population Problem: Why Families in Developed Counties are Shrinking and What it Means 2004, 3-28. in, Mahwah, NJ, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, pp.
31. Murphy Rachel. Fertility and distorted sex ratios in a rural Chinese county: Culture, state, and policy. Population and Development Review 2003, 29(4):595-626.
32. Tabulation on the 2000 Population Census of the People's Republic of China 2002, National Bureau of Statistics of China, Beijing, China's Statistics Press, in Chinese with English titles
33. Science and Technology Statistics. 2003, National Bureau of Statistics of China, in Chinese
34. Parish William L. Population based study of chlamydial infection in China: A hidden epidemic. Journal of the American Medical Association 2003, 289(10):1265-1273.
35. Pollard Michael S, Philip Morgan S. Emerging gender indifference: Sex composition of children and the third birth. American Sociological Review 2002, 67:600-613.
36. World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. 2007, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
37. World Population Data Sheet of 2004 2004, Population Reference Bureau, Washington, DC, Population Reference Bureau
38. Poston Dudley L, Poston Dudley L, Yaukey David. Fertility trends in China. The Population of Modern China 1992, in, New York, Plenum Press
39. Qian Zhenchao. Progression to second birth in China: A study of four rural counties. Population Studies 1997, 51(2):221-228.
40. Quesnel-Vallée Amthomampersand, Philip Morgan S. Missing the target? Correspondence of fertility intentions and behavior in the U.S. Population Research and Policy Review 2003, 22(5-6):497-525.
41. Retherford Robert D, Choe Minja Kim, Chen Jiajian, Xiru Li, Hongyan Hongyan. How far has fertility in China really declined?. Population and Development Review 2005, 31(1):57-84.
42. Rindfuss Ronald R, Guzzo Karen B, Morgan S Philip. The changing institutional context of low fertility. Population Research and Policy Review 2003, 22:411-438.
43. Rindfuss Ronald R, Palmore James A, Bumpass Larry L. Selectivity and the analysis of birth intervals from survey data. Asian and Pacific Census Forum 1982, 8:5-10. 15-16
44. Ryder Norman B, Hiorns R W. Components of temporal variations in American fertility. Demographic Patterns in Developed Societies 1980, in, London, Taylor and Francis
45. Schoumaker Bruno. A person-period approach to analyzing birth histories. Population-E 2004, 59:689-702.
46. Short Susan E, Chen Feinian, Entwisle Barbara, Fengying Fengying. Maternal work and child care in China: A multi-method analysis. Population and Development Review 2001, 28(1):31-57.
47. Sobotka Tomthomampersan. Is lowest-low fertility in Europe explained by the postponement of childbearing?. Population and Development Review 2004, 30:195-220.
48. Thornton Arland, Lin Lin. Social Change and the Family in Taiwan 1994, University of Chicago Press
49. Ping Ping, Xizhe Peng, Zhigang Guo. Trends and regional differentials in fertility transition. The Changing Population of China 2000, in, Blackwell Publishers
50. Investigation report: Ten characteristics of reproductive desire among Shanghainese," 18 November «http://www.china.org.cn/chinese/renkou/444418.htm»; cited in Zeng Yi, 2007. " Options for fertility policy transition in China. Population and Development Review 2003, 33:215-246. Xinhuanet
51. Yi Yi. Is fertility in China in 1991-92 far below replacement level?. Population Studies 1996, 50(1):27-34.
52. Yi Yi. Options for fertility policy transition in China. Population and Development Review 2007, 33:215-246.
53. Yi Zeng, Land K C. Adjusting period tempo changes with an extension of Ryder's basic translation equation. Demography 2002, 39:269-286.
54. Zhang Guangyu, Zhao Zhao. Reexamining China's fertility puzzle: Data collection and quality over the last two decades. Population and Development Review 2006, 32:293-321.
55. Zhenzhen Zhenzhen. Chinese Journal of Population Science. 2004, 73-78. in Chinese
56. Zhenzhen Zheng, Cai Yong, Feng Wang, Baochang Baochang. International Conference on Low Fertility and Reproductive Health in East and Southeast Asia. 2008, Tokyo