Modeling the effect of changing market conditions on mountain pine beetle salvage harvesting and structural changes in the British Columbia forest products industry

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Volumn 39, Issue 10, 2009, Pages 1806-1820

  Schwab, Olaf ^a   Maness, Thomas ^a   Bull, Gary ^a   Roberts, Don ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^b CIBC World Markets Inc   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGENT BASED; AGGREGATE PRODUCTS; BRITISH COLUMBIA; BRITISH COLUMBIA , CANADA; DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS; DENDROCTONUS PONDEROSAE; ECOLOGICAL PROCESS; ECONOMIC AGENTS; ECONOMIC VIABILITY; EMERGENT PROPERTY; FOREST INDUSTRY; FOREST INVENTORY; FOREST PRODUCTS; FOREST SECTOR MODEL; FOREST SECTORS; FOREST-PRODUCTS INDUSTRY; HOPKINS; MARKET CONDITION; MARKET DOWNTURN; MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE; PRODUCT DEMAND; PRODUCTION CAPACITY; PRODUCTION DECISIONS; PULP SECTOR; RESOURCE INVENTORY; SALVAGE HARVESTING; SIMULATION RESULT; STRATEGIC ANALYSIS; STRUCTURAL CHANGE; TIMBER SUPPLY;

AUTONOMOUS AGENTS; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; FORESTRY; HARVESTING; LANDFORMS;

COMMERCE;

BEETLE; ECONOMIC ACTIVITY; FOREST INVENTORY; FOREST PRODUCT; FORESTRY PRODUCTION; INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE; MODEL TEST; TIMBER HARVESTING; TIMBER INDUSTRY;

BRITISH COLUMBIA; COMMERCE; ECOLOGY; FORESTS; HARVESTING; MARKET RESEARCH; PINUS MUGO;

BRITISH COLUMBIA; CANADA; NORTH AMERICA;

COLEOPTERA; DENDROCTONUS PONDEROSAE; PINUS MUGO;

EID: 70350145191     PISSN: 00455067     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/X09-099     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Abt, R.C., and Ahn, S. 2003. Timber demand. In Forests in a market economy. Edited by E.O. Sills and K.L. Abt. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordecht, Netherlands. pp. 133-152.
2. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2007a. Variable density yield projection. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch, Victoria, B.C.
3. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2007b. Coast market pricing system update - 2007 [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hva/timberp/infopapers/MPSCoast-Jun07.pdf [accessed 15 November 2007].
4. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2007c. Interior market pricing system update - 2007 [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.llbc.leg.bc.ca/public/PubDocs/bcdocs/418633/MPSInterior-Jul07.pdf [accessed 15 November 2007].
5. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2008a. Update: pine beetle attack tops 700 million cubic metres [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/mountain_pine_beetle/Update_MPB_Volume_Estimate.pdf [accessed 21 May 2008].
6. B.C. Ministry of Forestry and Range. 2008b. Provincial-level projection of the current mountain pine beetle outbreak year 4 (current results) [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from ftp://ftp.for.gov.bc.ca/HRE/external/!publish/BCMPB.v4.CumKill. Data.zip [accessed 10 February 2008].
7. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2008c. Timber supply review - timber supply areas [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/ hts/tsas.htm [accessed 29 April 2008].
8. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2008d. Current allowable an-nual cut (AAC) by tree farm licences (TFL) and regions [on-line]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hts/tfls.htm [accessed 29 April 2008].
9. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2008e. Major primary timber processing facilities in British Columbia [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests, Forest Analysis and Inventory Branch, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/ftp/HET/external/!publish/Web/Mill%20List/Public%20Report%202006%20Excel%20Version.xls [accessed 15 February 2008].
10. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2008f. Regulations - Forest Act - Minimum Stumpage Regulation [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/tasb/legsregs/forest/faregs/minstump/msr.htm [accessed 10 October 2008].
11. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range. 2008g. Provincial-level projec-tion of the current mountain pine beetle outbreak - year 5 (cur-rent results) [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hre/bcmpb/BCMPB.v5.NoMgmtSummaryOfKill.PineUnits.xls [accessed 18 June 2008].
12. Blackstone, B. 2008. Economic data hint at lengthy slowdown. Wall Street Journal, New York. 25 April 2008. p. A.3.
13. Cambers, P.G.S., and Borralho, N.M.G. 1999. A simple model to examine the impact of changes in wood traits on the costs of thermomechanical pulping and high-brightness newsprint production with radiata pine. Can. J. For. Res. 29(10): 1615-1626. doi:10.1139/cjfr-29-10-1615.
14. Chow, S., and Obermajer, A. 2007. Moisture and blue stain distribution in mountain pine beetle infested lodgepole pine trees and industrial implications. Wood Sci. Technol. 41(1): 3-16. doi:10. 1007/s00226-006-0089-2.
15. Fahey, R. 2008. Tembec announces further actions in response to weak lumber markets [online]. Tembec Inc, Montréal, Que. Available from http://www.tembec.com/public/Salle-de-presse/2008-05-22/newsDocumentParagraphs/0/document_en/ 2008-05-22-e.pdf [accessed 21 June 2008].
16. Hamilton, G. 2008. 10,000 forestry jobs gone in past year [online]. Available from Vancouver Sun, Vancouver, B.C. http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=8450a367-0e58-4e92-9901-0ee170c62b5a [accessed 21 June 2008].
17. Haynes, R.W. 2003. An analysis of the timber situation in the United States: 1952-2050. USDA Fo. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-560.
18. Ho, T.-H., Camerer, C.F., and Chong, J.-K. 2001. Economic value of EWA Lite: a functional theory of learning in games. California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, Calif. Social Sci. Work. Pap. 1122.
19. Holmes, T.P. 1991. Price and welfare effects of catastrophic forest damage from southern pine beetle epidemics. For. Sci. 37(2): 500-516.
20. Horne, G. 2004. 2001 economic dependency tables for forest districts [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/HET/tsr_sea/Tables%20for%20FDs.pdf [accessed 15 January 2008].
21. Hu, T., Johal, S., Yuen, B., Williams, T., Osmond, D., and Watson, P. 2007. Cost implications of thermomechanical pulping and brightening of blue stained chips. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, B.C. Mountain Pine Beetle Initiative Work. Pap. 2007-10.
22. Kosman, K., and Heartwood, Z. 2008. Weekly key prices [online]. Madison's Canadian Lumber Reporter, Vancouver, B.C. Avail-able from http://www.madisonsreport.com/keyprices.html [accessed 9 June 2008].
23. Kumar, A., Flynn, P., and Sokhansanj, S. 2008. Biopower generation from mountain pine infested wood in Canada: an economical opportunity for greenhouse gas mitigation. Renew. Energy, 33(6): 1354-1363. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2007.07.008.
24. Macy, M.W., and Willer, R. 2002. From factors to actors: computational sociology and agent-based modeling. Annu. Rev. Sociol. 28(1): 143-166. doi:10.1146/annurev.soc.28.110601.141117.
25. Montrey, H., and Utterback, J.M. 1990. Current status and future of structural panels in the wood products industry. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 38(1): 15-35. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(90) 90015-N.
26. PaperAge. 2008. The pix pulp benchmark indices [online]. Paper-Age, Cohasset, Mass. Available from http://www.paperage.com/foex/pulp.html [accessed 9 June 2008].
27. Patriquin, M.N., Wellstead, A.M., and White, W.A. 2007. Beetles, trees, and people: regional economic impact sensitivity and policy considerations related to the mountain pine beetle infestation in British Columbia, Canada. For. Policy Econ. 9: 938-946.
28. Patriquin, M.N., van Lantz, A., Stedman, R., and White, W.A. 2008. Working together: a reciprocal wood flow arrangement to mitigate the economic impacts of natural disturbance. J. For. 81(2): 227-242.
29. Pedersen, L. 2003. Allowable annual cuts in British Columbia - the agony and the ecstasy [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hts/pubs/jubilee_ubc.pdf [accessed 1 September 2008].
30. Prestemon, J.P., and Holmes, T.P. 2004. Market dynamics and optimal timber salvage after a natural catastrophe. For. Sci. 50(3): 495-511.
31. Random Lengths. 2008. Panel market indicators. Random Lengths, 64(14): 11.
32. Repast Organization for Architecture and Development (ROAD). 2008. Repast [online]. Repast Organization for Architecture and Development, Argonne National, Laboratory, Argonne, Ill. Available from http://repast.sourceforge.net/repast_3/index.html [accessed 27 March 2008].
33. Schuler, A. 2005. A comparison of global lumber manufacturing costs. Struct. Building Components Mag. 86(3): 22-25.
34. Schwab, O. 2008. An agent-based forest sector modeling approach to analyzing the economic effects of natural disturbances. Ph.D. thesis, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C.
35. Schwab, O., and Maness, T. 2009. Rebuilding spatial forest inventories from aggregated data. J. For. In Press.
36. Smook, G. 2002. Handbook for pulp and paper technologists. Angus Wilde Publications, Inc., Vancouver, B.C.
37. Tesfatsion, L. 2006. Agent-based computational economics: a constructive approach to economic theory. In Agent-based computational economics. Vol. 2. Edited by L. Tesfatsion and K.L. Judd. Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam. pp. 831-880.
38. Timberline Forest Inventory Consultants Ltd. 2006. Timber supply analysis: mountain pine beetle impact on interior timber supply areas. Council of Forest Industries, Victoria, B.C.
39. Wagner, W.L., Willson, B., Peter, B., Wang, S., and Stennes, B. 2006. Economics in the management of mountain pine beetle in lodgepole pine in British Columbia: a synthesis. In The mountain pine beetle: a synthesis of biology, management, and impacts on lodgepole pine. Edited by L. Safranyik and W.R. Wilson. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, B.C. pp. 277-299.
40. Walton, A., Hughes, J., Eng, M., Fall, A., Shore, T.L., Riel, B., and Hall, P. 2007. Provincial-level projection of the current mountain pine beetle outbreak: update of the infestation projection based on the 2006 provincial aerial overview of forest health and revisions to the ''model'' (BCMPB.v4) [online]. B.C. Ministry of Forests and Range, Victoria, B.C. Available from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hre/bcmpb/BCMPB.v4.BeetleProjection.Update.pdf [accessed 21 May 2008].
41. Watson, P. 2006. The mountain pine beetle epidemic: changing the face of the BC industry. Pulp Pap. Can. 107(5): 12-16.