The impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and runoff in a humid, equatorial catchment: Sensitivity of projections to rainfall intensity

Hydrological Sciences Journal

Volumn 54, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 727-738

  Mileham, Lucinda ^a   Taylor, Richard G ^a   Todd, Martin ^a   Tindimugaya, Callist ^b   Thompson, Julian ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

^b Ministry of Water and Environment   (Uganda)

Author keywords

Africa; Climate change; Groundwater; Precipitation; Recharge; Runoff; Uganda

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT; CLIMATE DATA; CLIMATE PROJECTION; EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; EQUATORIAL AFRICA; GROUND WATER RECHARGE; HEAVY PRECIPITATION; HIGH RESOLUTION; HUMID TROPICS; IMPACT STUDY; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; PRECIPITATION; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION; RAINFALL INTENSITY; RECHARGE; REGIONAL CLIMATE; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; TEMPERATURE DATA; UGANDA;

CATCHMENTS; GEOLOGIC MODELS; HYDROGEOLOGY; MOISTURE DETERMINATION; PERMITTIVITY; RAIN; RECHARGING (UNDERGROUND WATERS); RUNOFF; SOIL MOISTURE; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; GROUNDWATER FLOW; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RAINFALL; RECHARGE; RUNOFF; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

AFRICA;

EID: 70349538816     PISSN: 02626667     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1623/hysj.54.4.727     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Arnell, N. W. (1999a) Climate change and global water resources. Global Environ. Change 9, S31-S49.
2. Arnell, N. W. (1999b) The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Europe a continental perspective. Global Environ. Change 9, 5-23.
3. Arnell, N. W. (2003) Relative effects of multi decadal climate variability and changes in the mean and variability of climate due to global warming: future streamflows in Britain. J. Hydrol. 270, 192-213.
4. Arnell, N. W. & Reynard, N. S. (1996) The effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. J. Hydrol. 183, 397-424.
5. Carmargo, A. P., Marin, F. R., Sentelhas, P. C. & Picini, A. G. (1999) Adjustment of Thornthwaite's method to estimate the potential evapotranspiration for arid and superhumid climates, based on daily temperature amplitude. Rev. Bras. Agrometerol. 7, 251-257.
6. Crooks, S. M., Naden, P. S., Broadhurst, P. & Gannon, B. (1996) Modelling the flood response of large catchments, initial estimates of the impacts of climate and landuse change. CEH Report to Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Project FD 412. CEH Wallingford, UK.
7. Dagg, M. & Blackie, J. R. (1965) Studies of the effects of changes in land use on the hydrological cycle in East Africa by means of experimental catchment areas. Bull. IASH X(4), 63-75 (available at: http://iahs.info/hsj/104/104011.pdf).
8. Döll, P. & Flörke, M. (2005) Global-scale estimation of diffuse groundwater recharge. Frankfurt Hydrology Paper 03, Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
9. Dupriez, G. L. (1959) La cuve lysimétrique de Thornthwaite, comme instrument de mesure de l'évapotranspiration en régions equatorials. In: Symposium of Hannoversch-Münden (8-14 September 1959), vol. II. Lysimeters, 84-98. IAHS Publ. 49. IAHS Press, Wallingford, UK (available at: http://www.iahs.info/redbooks/ 049.htm).
10. Foster, S., Tuinhof, A. & Garduno, H. (2006) Groundwater development in sub-Saharan Africa. A strategic overview of key issues and major needs. Sustainable groundwater management, lessons from practice, Case profile collection number 15. World Bank, Washingto DC, USA.
11. Gleick, P. H. (1986) Methods for evaluating the regional hydrological impacts of global climatic changes. J. Hydrol. 88, 97-116.
12. Grindley, J. (1967) The estimation of soil moisture deficits. Meteorol. Mag. 96, 97-108.
13. Guo, N., Zhang, J. & Liang, Y. (2003) Climate change indicated by the recent change of inland lakes in Northwest China. J. Glaciol. Geocryol. 25, 211-214.
14. Herrera-Pantoja, M. & Hiscock, K. M. (2008) The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain. Hydrol. Processes 22, 73-86.
15. Howard, K. W. F. & Lloyd, J. W. (1979) The sensitivity of parameters in the Penman evaporation equations and direct recharge balance. J. Hydrol. 41, 329-344.
16. Hulme, M., Doherty, R., Ngara, T., New, M. & Lister, D. (2001) African climate change: 1990-2100. Climate Res. 17, 145-168.
17. Hulme, M., Mitchel, J. F. B., Jenkins, J., Gregory, B. M., New, M. & Viner, D. (1999) Global climate scenarios for fast track impact studies. Global Environ. Change 9, S3-S19.
18. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by J. J. McCarthy, O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, D. J. Dokken & K. S. White). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
19. IPCC (2007a) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
20. Jones, R. G., Noguer, M., Hassell, D. C., Hudson, D., Wilson, S. S., Jenkins, G. J. & Mitchell, J. F. B. (2004) Generating high resolution climate change scenarios using PRECIS. Met Office Halley Centre, Exeter, UK.
21. Joubert, P. D. & Hewitson, B. C. (1997) Simulating present and future climates of southern Africa using general circulation models. Progr. Phys. Geogr. 21, 51-78.
22. Kamga, F. M. (2001) Impact of greenhouse gas induced climate change on the runoff of the upper Benue river (Cameroon). J. Hydrol. 252, 145-156.
23. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Sen, Z. & Shiklomanov, I. (2007) Freshwater resources and their management. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, C. E. Hanson & P. J. van der Linden). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
24. Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N., Döll, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K., Oki, T., Sen, Z. & Shiklomanov,I. (2008) The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management. Hydrol. Sci. J. 53(1), 3-10.
25. Leander, R. & Buishand, T. A. (2007) Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme rover flows. J. Hydrol. 332, 487-496.
26. Legesse, D., Vallet-Coulomb, C. & Gasse, F. (2003) Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in tropical Africa: case study South Central Ethiopia. J. Hydrol. 275, 67-85.
27. Lerner, D. N., Issar, A. S. & Simmers, I. (1990) Groundwater Recharge, a Guide to Understanding and Estimating Natural Recharge, 345. International Contributions to Hydrogeology, Heinz Heise Verlag, Germany.
28. Linderink, G., Buishand, T. A. & Van Deursen, W. (2007) Estimates of future discharges of the River Rhine using two scenario methodologies: duet version delta approach. Hydrology Earth System Sci. 11, 1145-1159.
29. Messager, C., Gallée, H., Brasseur, O., Cappelaere, B., Peugeot, C., Séguis, L., Vauclin, M., Ramel, R., Grasseau, G., Léger, L. & Girou, D. (2006) Influence of observed and RCM-simulated precipitation on the water discharge over the Sirba basin, Burkina Faso/Niger. Clim. Dynam. 27(2-3), 199-214.
30. Mileham, L. J. (2008) The impact of climate change on a humid equatorial catchment in Uganda. Unpublished PhD Thesis, University College London, London, UK.
31. Mileham, L. J., Taylor, R. G., Thompson, J., Todd, M. & Tindimugaya, C. (2008) Impact of rainfall distribution on the parameterisation of a soil-moisture balance model of groundwater recharge in equatorial Africa. J. Hydrol. 359, 46-58.
32. Milly, P. C. D., Dunne, K. A. & Vecchia, A. V. (2005) Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438(7066), 347-350.
33. MWLE (Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment, Uganda) (1996) Land-use/ Vegetation Maps, Scale of 1:50 000.
34. MWLE (Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment, Uganda) (2006) Water Authorities Division Annual Inspection Report. Unpublished Report, Directorate of Water Development, Uganda.
35. Penman, H. L. (1950) The water balance of the Stour catchment area. J. Inst. Water Engrs 4, 457-469.
36. Pereira, H. C. & Pruitt, W. O. (2004) Adaptation of the Thornthwaite scheme for estimating daily reference evapotranspiration. Agric. Water Manage. 66, 251-257.
37. Pilling, C. & Jones, J. A. A. (1999) High resolution equilibrium and transient climate change scenario implications for British runoff. Hydrol. Processes 13, 2877-2895.
38. Prudhomme, C., Reynard, N. & Crooks, S. (2002) Downscaling of global climate models for flood frequency analysis; where are we now? Hydrol. Processes 16, 1137-1150.
39. Reynard, N. S., Prudhomme, C. & Crooks, S. M. (2001) The flood characteristics of large UK rivers: potential effects of changing climate and land use. Climatic Change 48, 343-359.
40. Rushton, K. R., Eilers, V. H. M. & Carter, R. C. (2006) Improved soil moisture balance methodology for recharge estimation. J. Hydrol. 318, 379-399.
41. Schreider, S. Y, Smith, D. I. & Jakerman, A. J. (2000) Climatic change impacts on urban flooding. Climatic Change 47, 91-115.
42. Shiklomanov, I. (2000) World water resources and water use, present assessment and outlook for 2025. In: World Water Scenarios Analyses (ed. by F. R. Rijkeman), 160-203. Earthscan Publications, London, UK.
43. Tate, E., Sutcliffe, J. V., Conway, D. & Farquharson, F. (2004) Water balance of Lake Victoria: update to 2000 and climate change modelling to 2100. Hydrol. Sci. J. 49(4), 563-574.
44. Taylor, R. G. & Howard, K. W. F. (1996) Groundwater recharge in the Victoria Nile basin of east Africa: support for the soil moisture balance approach using stable isotope tracers and flow modelling. J. Hydrol. 180, 31-53.
45. Taylor, R. G. & Howard, K. W. F. (1998) Post Paleozoic evolution of weathered landscapes in Uganda by tectonically controlled cycles of deep weathering and stripping. Geomorphology 25, 173-192.
46. Taylor, R. G. & Howard, K. W. F. (1999a) The influence of tectonic setting on the hydrological characteristics of deeply weathered terrains: evidence from Uganda. J. Hydrol. 218, 44-71.
47. Taylor, R. G. & Howard, K. W. F. (1999b) Lithological evidence for the evolution of weathered mantles in Uganda by tectonically controlled cycles of deep weathering and stripping. Catena 35, 65-94.
48. Taylor, R. G. & Howard, K. W. F. (2000) A techno-geomorphic setting in the hydrological characteristics of deeply weathered crystalline rock from Uganda. Hydrogeol. J. 8, 279-294.
49. UN (United Nations) (2002) World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision. United Nations, New York, USA.
50. Veevers, J. J. (1977) Rifted arch-basins and post-breakup rim basin on passive continental margins. Tectonophys. 41, T1-T5.
51. Vörösmarty, C. J., Douglas, E. M., Green, P. A. & Revenga, C. (2005) Geospatial indicators of emerging water stress: an application to Africa. Ambio 34, 230-236.
52. Ward, R. C. (1971) Measuring evapotranspiration, a review. J. Hydrol. 13, 1-21.
53. Wit, M. & Stankiewicz, J. (2006) Changes in surface water across Africa with predicted climate change. Science 311, 1917-1921.