Research update: Increased spending on health care: Long-term implications for the nation

Health Affairs

Volumn 28, Issue 5, 2009, Pages 1253-1255

  Chernew, Michael E ^a   Hirth, Richard A ^b   Cutler, David M ^c  

^a HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^c HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; ECONOMIC ASPECT; HEALTH CARE COST; HEALTH CARE SYSTEM; INCOME; PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE; COST CONTROL; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HUMAN; UNITED STATES;

COST CONTROL; HEALTH CARE REFORM; HEALTH EXPENDITURES; HUMANS; INCOME; UNITED STATES;

EID: 70349216730     PISSN: 02782715     EISSN: 15445208     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.28.5.1253     Document Type: Article

References (6)

1. Chernew ME, Hirth RA, Cutler DM. Increased spending on health care: how much can the United States afford? Health Aff (Millwood). 2003;22(4):15-25.
2. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services uses these sources in its analysis: CMS, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group; and U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census.
3. CMS. National health expenditure data [Internet]. Baltimore (MD): CMS; 2009 [cited 2009 Jul 24]. Available from: http://www.cms.hhs.gov/ NationalHealthExpendData/downloads/tables.pdf
4. GDP deflator values obtained from U.S. Government Printing Office. Budget of the United States government: historical tables fiscal year 2009 [Internet]. Washington (DC): U.S. GPO; 2009 [cited 2009 Jul 30]. Available from: http://www .gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy09/hist.html
5. We inflated real per capita GDP by 1.7 percent per year and national health expenditures by 1.7 percent plus 0.32 to account for demographic changes, plus one or two percentage points depending on the scenario. These values are based on correspondence with the CMS Office of the Actuary and are different from the values used in our previous work (1.2 percent for GDP and national health expenditure growth and 0.43 percent for demographic changes). We then computed the statistics reported.
6. We still apply the updated demographic adjustment assumption, which changed from 0.43 percent to 0.32 percent.