Use of climate indices to predict corn yields in southeast USA

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 29, Issue 11, 2009, Pages 1680-1691

  Martinez, Christopher J ^a   Baigorria, Guillermo A ^a   Jones, James W ^a  

^a University of Florida   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate; Climate indices; Crop yield forecast

Indexed keywords

ALABAMA; ATMOSPHERIC CLIMATE; CLIMATE; CLIMATE INDEX; CLIMATE INDICES; COLLINEARITY; CORN YIELDS; CORRELATION ANALYSIS; CROP YIELD FORECAST; EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC; FLORIDA; GEORGIA; HIT SCORES; NORTH AMERICAN; NORTH ATLANTIC; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT REGRESSION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; SURFACE TEMPERATURES; WATER STRESS;

CROPS; PHOTOMASKS; SURFACE PROPERTIES; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE;

CLIMATE MODELING; CROP YIELD; MAIZE; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PREDICTION; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SPRING (SEASON); SUMMER;

ALABAMA; FLORIDA [UNITED STATES]; GEORGIA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

ZEA MAYS;

EID: 70349194606     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1817     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Baigorria GA, Hansen JW, Ward N, Jones JW, O'Brien JJ. 2008a. Assessing predictability of cotton yields in the southeastern USA based on atmospheric circulation and surface temperatures. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47: 76-91.
2. Baigorria GA, Jones JW, O'Brien JJ. 2008b. Potential predictability of crop yields using an ensemble climate forecast by a regional circulation model. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148: 1353-1361.
3. Baigorria GA, Jones JW, Shin DW, Mishra A, O'Brien JJ. 2007. Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected regional circulation model outputs. Climate Research 34: 211-222.
4. Davis RE, Hayden BP, Gay DA, Phillips WL, Jones GV. 1997. The North Atlantic anticyclone. Journal of Climate 10(4): 728-744.
5. Diem JE. 2006. Synoptic-scale controls of summer precipitation in the southeastern United States. Journal of Climate 19: 613-621.
6. Efron B, Gong G. 1983. A leisurely look at the bootstrap, jackknife, and cross-validation. American Statistician 37: 36-48.
7. Enfield DB. 1996. Relationships of inter-American rainfall to tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST variability. Geophysical Research Letters 23(23): 3305-3308.
8. Enfield DB, Mayer DA. 1997. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature variability and its relation to El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research 102(C1): 929-945.
9. Enfield DB, Mayer DA, Cid Serrano L. 1999. How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures? Journal of Geophysical Research 104(C4): 7841-7848.
10. Enfield DB, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Trimble PJ. 2001. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 28(10): 2077-2080.
11. Garen DC. 1992. Improved techniques in regression-based streamflow volume forecasting. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 118(6): 654-670.
12. Gershunov A, Barnett TP. 1998. Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79(12): 2715-2725.
13. Handler P. 1990. USA corn yields, the El Niño and agricultural drought: 1867-1988. International Journal of Climatology 10(8): 819-828.
14. Hansen JW, Hodges AW, Jones JW. 1998. ENSO influences on agriculture in the southeastern United States. Journal of Climate 11(3): 404-411.
15. Hansen JW, Jones JW, Kiker CF, Hodges AW. 1999. El Niño- Southern Oscillation impacts on winter vegetable production in Florida. Journal of Climate 12(1): 92-102.
16. Hasanean HM. 2004. Variability of the North Atlantic subtropical high and associations with tropical sea-surface temperature. International Journal of Climatology 24(8): 945-957.
17. Henderson KG, Vega AJ. 1996. Regional precipitation variability in the southern United States. Physical Geography 17(2): 93-112.
18. Hidalgo HG, Piechota TC, Dracup JA. 2000. Alternative principal component regression procedures for dendrohydrologic reconstructions. Water Resources Research 36(11): 3241-3249.
19. Horel JD, Wallace JM. 1981. Planetary-scale atmospheric phenomena associated with the Southern Oscillation. Monthly Weather Review 109(4): 813-829.
20. Jolliffe IT. 2004. Principal Component Analysis. Springer: New York, NY, USA; 487.
21. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woolen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77(3): 437-471.
22. Katz RW, Parlange MB, Tebaldi C. 2003. Stochastic modeling of the effects of large-scale circulation on daily weather in the southeastern U.S. Climatic Change 60: 189-216.
23. Keim BD. 1997. Preliminary analysis of the temporal patterns of heavy rainfall across the southeastern United States. Professional Geographer 49(1): 94-104.
24. Kerr RA. 2000. A North Atlantic pacemaker for the centuries. Science 288(5473): 1984-1986.
25. Leathers DJ, Yarnal B, Palecki MA. 1991. The Pacific/North American pattern and United States climate. Journal of Climate 4(5): 517-528.
26. Lee RD (ed.). 2008. A Guide to Corn Production in Georgia. The University of Georgia College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences Cooperative Extension Service: Athens, GA, USA; 61.
27. Lobell DB, Asner GP. 2003. Climate and management contribution to recent trends in U.S. agricultural yields. Science 299(5609): 1032.
28. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC. 1997. A Pacific decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 1069-1079.
29. Mask PL, Mitchell CC. 1988. Alabama production guide for corn. Alabama Cooperative Extension System. Circular ANR-503, 2.
30. National Agricultural Statistics-United States Department of Agriculture (NASS/USDA). 2007. Acreage. Released June 29, 2007, Available at: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/.
31. Philander SG. 1990. El Niño, La Niña, and The Southern Oscillation. Academic Press: San Diego, CA.
32. Phillips J, Rajagopalan B, Cane M, Rosenzweig C. 1999. The role of ENSO in determining climate and maize variability in the U.S. cornbelt. International Journal of Climatology 19: 877-888.
33. Podestá G, Letson D, Messina C, Royce F, Ferreyra RA, Jones J, Hansen J, Llovet I, Grondona M, O'Brien JJ. 2002. Use of ENSO- related climate information in agricultural decision making in Argentina: a pilot experience. Agricultural Systems 74(3): 371-392.
34. Press WH, Flannery BP, Teukolsky SA, Vetterling WT. 1989. Numerical Recipes: The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press: New York, NY, USA; 702.
35. Rogers JC. 1984. The association between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere. Monthly Weather Review 112(10): 1999-2015.
36. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS. 1986. North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Monthly Weather Review 114(12): 2352-2362.
37. Sahsamanoglou HS. 1990. A contribution of the study of action centres in the North Atlantic. International Journal of Climatology 10(3): 247-261.
38. Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK. 1992. Reconstruction and analysis of spring rainfall over the southeastern U.S. for the past 1000 years. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 73(12): 1947-1961.
39. Travasso MI, Magrin GO, Rodríguez GR. 2003. Relationships between sea-surface temperature and crop yields in Argentina. International Journal of Climatology 23(13): 1655-1662.
40. Trenberth KE. 1997. The definition of El Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(12): 2771-2777.
41. Wallace JM, Gutzler DS. 1981. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter. Monthly Weather Review 109: 784-812.
42. Wang C. 2002. Atlantic climate variability and its associated atmospheric circulation cells. Journal of Climate 15(13): 1516-1536.
43. Widmann M, Schär C. 1997. A principle component and long-term trend analysis of daily precipitation in Switzerland. International Journal of Climatology 17(12): 1333-1356.
44. Wright D, Marois J, Rich J, Sprenkel R. 2004. Field Corn Production Guide. Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida. Document SS-AGR-85, 16.
45. Yarnal BM, Diaz HF. 1986. Relationships between extremes of the Southern Oscillation and the winter climate of the Anglo-American Pacific coast. Journal of Climate 6(2): 197-219.
46. Yin ZY. 1994. Moisture condition in the south-eastern USA and teleconnection patterns. International Journal of Climatology 14(9): 947-967.