Crime and expected punishment: Changes in perceptions at the age of criminal majority

American Law and Economics Review

Volumn 11, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 209-248

  Hjalmarsson, Randi ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 69749109883     PISSN: 14657252     EISSN: 14657260     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/aler/ahn016     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Angrist, Joshua, and Victor Lavy. 1999. "Using Maimonides Rule to Estimate the Effect of Class Size on Scholastic Achievement," 114 Quarterly Journal of Economics 533-75.
2. Becker, Gary. 1968. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," 76 Journal of Political Economy 169-217.
3. Berk, Richard, and David Rauma. 1983. "Capitalizing on Nonrandom Assignment to Treatments: A Regression-Discontinuity Evaluation of a Crime Control Program," 78 Journal of the American Statistical Association 21-27.
4. Berk, Richard, and Jan deLeeuw. 1999. "An Evaluation of California's Inmate Classification System Using A Generalized Regression Discontinuity Design," 94 Journal of the American Statistical Association 1045-1052.
5. Card, David, and David Lee. 2008. "Regression Discontinuity Inference with Specification Error," 142(2) Journal of Econometrics 655-74.
6. Chen,M. Keith, and Jesse M. Shapiro. 2007. "Do Harsher Prison Conditions Reduce Recidivism? A Discontinuity-Based Approach," 9 American Law and Economic Review 1-29.
7. Dominitz, Jeff. 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, and Realizations," 80 Review of Economics and Statistics 374-88.
8. Dominitz, Jeff, and Charles Manski. 2003. "How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence (Sentiment)? Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers," NBER Working Paper No. 9926.
9. Dominitz, Jeff, Charles Manski, and Jordan Heinz. 2003. "Will Social Security Be There for You? How Americans Perceive Their Benefits," NBERWorking Paper No. 9798.
10. Durose, Matthew, and Patrick Langan. 2003. "Felony Sentences in State Courts, 2000," Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin NCJ 198821.
11. Federal Bureau of Investigation. Uniform Crime Reports. Crime in the United States 2000.
12. Federal Bureau of Investigation. Uniform Crime Reports. Crime in the United States 2006.
13. Fischhoff, Baruch, Aandrew Parker, Wändi Bruine deBruin, Julie Downs, Claire Palmgren, Robyn Dawes, and Charles Manski. 2000. "Teen Expectations for Significant Life Events," 64 Public Opinion Quarterly 189-205.
14. Glassner, Barry, Margret Ksander, Bruce Berg, and Bruce Johnson. 1983. "A Note on the Deterrent Effect of Juvenile vs. Adult Jurisdiction," 31(2) Social Problems 219-21.
15. Greenwood, Peter. 1995. "Juvenile Crime and Juvenile Justice," in JamesWilson and Joan Petersilia, eds., Crime. San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Studies.
16. Grogger, Jeffrey. 1991. "Certainty vs. Severity of Punishment," 29 Economic Inquiry 297-301.
17. Horney, Julie, and Ineke Marshall. 1992. "Risk Perceptions among Serious Offenders: The Role of Crime and Punishment," 30 Criminology 575-594.
18. Hurd, Michael, and Kathleen McGarry. 1995. "Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study," 30 Journal of Human Resources S268-92.
19. Hurd, Michael, James Smith, and Julie Zissimopoulos. 2002. "The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirement and Social Security Claiming," NBER Working Paper No. 9140.
20. Jacob, Brian, and Lars Lefgren. 2004. "Remedial Education and Student Achievement: A Regression-Discontinuity Analysis," 86 Review of Economics and Statistics 226-44.
21. Jones, Richard, Lois Cole, and Meredith Bliss. 2001. "Felony Sentencing in Oregon 1998," Statistical Analysis Center of the Oregon Criminal Justice Commission.
22. Juvenile Justice Information System, JJIS Steering Committee. 2001. "Disposition Reports: Dispositions of Youth, Referrals, and Referrals by Offense Category and by Demographics," Oregon Youth Authority, Oregon Juvenile Department Directors' Association.
23. Klepper, Steven, and Daniel Nagin. 1989. "The Deterrent Effect of Perceived Certainty and Severity of Punishment Revisited," 27 Criminology 721-46.
24. Kuziemko, Ilyana. 2007. "Going Off Parole: How the Elimination of Discretionary Prison Release Affects the Social Cost of Crime." NBER Working Paper No. 13380.
25. Lee, David, and Justin McCrary. 2005. "Crime, Punishment, and Myopia," NBER Working Paper No. 11491.
26. Levitt, Steven. 1997. "Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime," 87(3) American Economic Review 270-90.
27. Levitt, Steven. 1998. "Juvenile Crime and Punishment," 106 Journal of Political Economy 1156-85.
28. Lochner, Lance. 2007. "Individual Perceptions of the Criminal Justice System," 97 American Economic Review 444-60.
29. Manski, Charles. 2004. "Measuring Expectations," 72 Econometrica 1329-76.
30. Manski, Charles, and John Straub. 2000." Worker Perceptions of Job Insecurity in the Mid-1990s: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," 35 Journal of Human Resources 447-79.
31. Matsueda, Ross, Derek Kreager, and David Huizinga. 2006. "Deterring Delinquents: A Rational Choice Model of Theft and Violence," 71 American Sociological Review 95-122.
32. Myers, Samuel. 1983. "Estimating the Economic Model of Crime: Punishment vs. Deterrent Effects," 98 Quarterly Journal of Economics 157-66.
33. Nagin, Daniel. 1998. "Criminal Deterrence Research at the Outset of the Twenty-First Century," 23 Crime and Justice 1-42.
34. National Juvenile Court Data Archive. OJJDP Statistical Briefing Book Pittsburgh, PA: National Center for Juvenile Justice. Online. http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/court/JCSCF_Display.asp?ID= qa06622&year=2000&group=1&type=2. (accessed March 19, 2007).
35. The National Research Council. 1978. "Deterrence and Incapacitation: Estimating the Effects of Criminal Sanctions on Crime Rates," Alfred Blumstein et al., eds., Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences.
36. Paternoster, Raymond. 1987. "The Deterrent Effect of the Perceived Certainty and Severity of Punishment: A Review of the Evidence and Issues," 4 Justice Quarterly 173-218.
37. Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing. 2001. "Sentencing in Pennsylvania, Annual Data Report 2001."
38. Pogarsky, Greg, Alex Piquero, and Raymond Paternoster. 2004. "Modeling Change in Perceptions about Sanction Threats: The Neglected Linkage in Deterrence Theory," 20(4) Journal of Quantitative Criminology 343-69.
39. Snyder, Howard, and Melissa Sickmund. 1999. "Juvenile Offenders and Victims: 1999 National Report," National Center for Juvenile Justice, Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention.
40. Seaver,W. Burleigh, and Richard J. Quarton. 1976. "Regression Discontinuity Analysis of Dean's List Effects," 68 Journal of Educational Psychology 459-65.
41. State of Indiana Department of Correction, The Planning Division. 2006. "Offender Population Statistical Report For theMonth of December, 2006," Monthly reports of the same title for January through November were also used.
42. Tauchen, Helen, Ann Dryden Witte, and Harriet Griesinger. 1994. "Criminal Deterrence: Revisiting the Issue with a Birth Cohort," 76 Review of Economics and Statistics 399-412.
43. Thistlethwaite, Donald, and Donald Campbell. 1960. "Regression Discontinuity Analysis: An Alternative to the Ex Post Facto Experiment," 51(6) The Journal of Educational Psychology 309-17.
44. Trochim, W. 1984. Research Design for Program Evaluation: The Regression Discontinuity Approach. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications.
45. Van Der Klaauw, Wilbert. 2002. "Estimating the Effect of Financial Aid Offers on College Enrollment: A Regression-Discontinuity Approach," 43 International Economic Review 1249-87.
46. Witte, Ann Dryden. 1980. "Estimating the EconomicModel of Crime with Individual Data," 94 Quarterly Journal of Economics 57-84.