A global risk assessment model for civil wars

Social Science Research

Volumn 38, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 921-933

  Rost, Nicolas ^a   Schneider, Gerald ^b   Kleibl, Johannes ^c  

^a United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) for Somalia   (Kenya)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KONSTANZ   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Civil war; Early warning; Logit regression; Neural networks; Prediction; Risk assessment

Indexed keywords

EID: 69749109753     PISSN: 0049089X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2009.06.007     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Annan, K., 2006. Progress Report on the Prevention of Armed Conflict. Available from: (accessed September 2006).
2. Beck N., King G., and Langche Z. Improving quantitative studies of international conflict: a conjecture. American Political Science Review 94 (2000) 21-35
3. Bercovitch J., and Schneider G. Who mediates? The political economy of international conflict management. Journal of Peace Research 37 (2000) 145-165
4. Berthold M.R., Cebron N., Dill F., Gabriel T.R., Kötter T., Meinl T., Ohl P., Sieb Ch., Thiel K., and Wiswedel B. KNIME: the Konstanz information miner. In: Preisach Ch., Burkhardt H., Schmidt-Thieme L., and Decker R. (Eds). Data Analysis, Machine Learning and Applications (2008), Springer, Berlin 319-326
5. Besley T., and Persson T. Wars and state capacity. Journal of the European Economic Association 6 (2008) 522-530
6. Bond D.J., Craig J., Taylor Ch.L., and Schock K. Mapping mass political conflict and civil society: issues and prospects for the automated development of event data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (1997) 553-579
7. Bueno de Mesquita B. The War Trap (1981), Yale University Press, New Haven
8. Bueno de Mesquita B., Newman D., and Rabushka A. Forecasting Political Events - The Future of Hong Kong (1985), Yale University Press, New Haven
9. Carey, S.C., 2005. Patterns of authority and the escalation of intrastate conflict. Paper Presented at the ECPR General Conference in Budapest, 8-10 September 2005.
10. Choucri N., and Robinson T.S. Forecasting in International Relations - Theory, Methods, Problems, Prospects (1978), Freeman, San Francisco
11. Collier P., and Hoeffler A. Greed and Grievance in Civil War (2004), Oxford Economic Papers
12. Collier P., Hoeffler A., and Söderbom M. On the duration of civil war. Journal of Peace Research 41 (2004) 253-273
13. Davenport, Ch., Armstrong, D.A., Lichbach, M.I., 2006. Conflict escalation and the origins of civil war. Working Paper. Available from: (accessed August 2006).
14. Fawcett T. An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters 27 (2006) 861-874
15. Fearon J.D., and Laitin D.D. Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review 75 (2003) 90
16. Fein H. Dangerous states and endangered people: implications of life integrity violations analysis. In: Rupesinghe K., and Kuroda M. (Eds). Early Warning and Conflict Resolution (1992), St. Martin's, New York 30-40
17. Gates, S., Strand, H., 2006. Modeling the duration of civil wars: measurement and estimation issues. Working Paper.
18. Gibney, M., Cornett, L., Wood, R., 2007. Political Terror Scale 1976-2006. Available from: (accessed July 2008).
19. Gilligan M., and Stedman S. Where do peacekeepers go?. International Studies Review 5 (2003) 37-54
20. Gleditsch, K.S., 2007. Modified Polity P4 and P4D Data, Version 2.0. Available from: (accessed July 2008).
21. Gleditsch N.P., Wallensteen P., Eriksson M., Sollenberg M., and Strand H. Armed conflict 1946-2001: a new dataset. Journal of Peace Research 39 (2002) 615-637
22. Goldstone, J.A., Gurr, T.G., Harff, B., Levy, M.A., Marshall, M.G., Bates, R.H., Epstein, D.L., Kahl, C.H., Surko, P.T., Ulfelder, J.C., Unger, A.N., 2000. State Failure Task Force Project: Phase III Findings. Available from: (accessed November 2003).
23. Goldstone, J.A., Bates, R.H., Gurr, T.R., Lustik, M., Marshall, M.G., Ulfelder, J., Woodward, M., 2005. A global forecasting model of political instability. Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., USA, 1-4 September 2005. Available from: (accessed June 2006).
24. Goodwin J. No Other Way Out - States and Revolutionary Movements, 1945-1991 (2001), Cambridge University Press, New York
25. Gordenker L. Early warning of disastrous population movement. International Migration Review 20 (1986) 170-189
26. Gordenker L. Early warning: conceptual and practical issues. In: Rupesinghe K., and Kuroda M. (Eds). Early Warning and Conflict Resolution (1992), St. Martin's, New York 1-14
27. Greig J.M. Stepping into the fray: when do mediators mediate. American Journal of Political Science 49 (2005) 249-266
28. Greig, J.M., Rost, N., 2005. Which tool gets used? A multidimensional analysis of conflict management within civil wars. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, April 7-10.
29. Gurr T.R., and Moore W.H. Ethnopolitical rebellion: a cross-sectional analysis of the 1980s with risk assessments for the 1990s. American Journal of Political Science 41 (1997) 1079-1103
30. Hadenius, A., Teorell, J., 2007. Authoritarian Regimes Data Set, Version 2.0. Available from: (accessed July 2008).
31. Harff B. Early warning of humanitarian crises: sequential models and the role of accelerators. In: Davies J.L., and Gurr T.R. (Eds). Preventive Measures - Building Risk Assessment and Crisis Early Warning Systems (1998), Rowman & Littlefield, Lanham 70-78
32. Harff B., and Gurr T.R. Systematic early warning of humanitarian emergencies. Journal of Peace Research 35 (1998) 551-579
33. Harff B. No lessons learned from the holocaust? Assessing risks of genocide and political mass murder since 1955. American Political Science Review 97 (2003) 57-73. http://globalpolicy.gmu.edu/genocide Genocide and Politicide Data. Available from: (accessed July 2008)
34. Hegre H., and Sambanis N. Sensitivity analysis of empirical results on civil war onset. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (2006) 508-535
35. Hegre H., Ellingsen T., Gates S., and Gleditsch N.P. Towards a democratic civil peace? democracy, political change, and civil war 1816-1992. American Political Science Review 95 (2001) 33-48
36. Heston A., Summers R., and Aten B. Penn World Table Version 6.2 (2006), Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania
37. Human Security Centre, 2005. Human Security Report 2005. Oxford University Press, Oxford/New York.
38. Human Security Centre, 2006. Human Security Brief 2006. Available from: (accessed June 2009).
39. King G., and Langche Z. Improving forecasts of state failure. World Politics 53 (2001) 623-658
40. Krain M. State-sponsored mass murder: the onset and severity of genocides and politicides. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (1997) 331-360
41. Lacina B., and Gleditsch N.P. Monitoring trends in global combat: a new dataset of battle deaths. European Journal of Population 21 (2005) 145-166
42. Marshall, M.G., Jaggers, K., 2007. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2006, Version 2006. Center for Systemic Peace. Available from: (accessed October 2004).
43. Mason T.D., and Krane D. The political economy of death squads: toward a theory of the impact of state-sanctioned terror. International Studies Quarterly 33 (1989) 175-198
44. Poe S.C., and Tate C.N. Repression of human rights to personal integrity in the 1980s: a global analysis. American Political Science Review 88 (1994) 853-872
45. Poe S.C., Tate C.N., and Camp Keith L. Repression of the human right to personal integrity revisited: a global cross-national study covering the years 1976-1993. International Studies Quarterly 43 (1999) 291-313
46. Poe S.C., Rost N., and Carey S.C. Assessing risk and opportunity in conflict studies: a human rights analysis. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (2006) 484-507
47. Rashid A. Descent into Chaos - How the War Against Islamic Extremism is being Lost in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia (2008), Penguin, London
48. Rasler K. War, accommodation, and violence in the United States, 1890-1970. American Political Science Review 80 (1986) 921-945
49. Riedmiller M., and Braun H. A direct adaptive method for faster backpropagation learning: the RPROP algorithm. Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN) 16 (1993) 586-591
50. Sambanis N. What is civil war? Conceptual and empirical complexities of an operational definition. Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (2004) 814-858
51. Schneider G., and Wiesehomeier N. Rules that matter: political institutions and the diversity-conflict nexus. Journal of Peace Research 45 (2008) 183-203
52. Schrodt, P. 2004[1995]. Patterns, Rules and Learning: Computational Models of International Behavior, second edition of unpublished manuscript. Available from: (accessed 22.03.09).
53. Singer J.D., and Wallace M.D. To Augur Well - Early Warning Indicators in World Politics (1979), Sage Publications, Beverly Hills
54. Thoms O.N.T., and Ron J. Do Human Rights Violations Cause Internal Conflict?. Human Rights Quarterly 29 (2007) 674-705
55. UNDP, United Nations Development Programme (2008): Human Development Report 2007/2008. Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
56. Ward, M.D., Bakke, K., 2005. Predicting civil conflicts: on the utility of empirical research. Paper Presented at the Conference on Disaggregating the Study of Civil War and Transnational Violence, University of California Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation, San Diego, CA, USA, 7-8 March 2005.
57. Ward M.D., Siverson R.M., and Cao X. Disputes, democracies, and dependencies: a reexamination of the Kantian peace. American Journal of Political Science 51 (2007) 583-601
58. World Bank, 2008. World Development Indicators. World Bank, Washington, DC. Available from: (accessed July 2008).
59. Zanger S.C. A global analysis of the effect of political regime changes on life integrity violations, 1977-1993. Journal of Peace Research 37 (2000) 213-233