The great himalayan watershed : Agrarian crisis mega-dams and the environment

New Left Review

Volumn , Issue 58, 2009, Pages 5-39

  Kenneth, Pomeranz ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 69549111583     PISSN: 00286060     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Review

References (112)

1. Sharon LaFraniere, 'Possible Link Between Dam and China Quake', New York Times, 6 February 2009
2. Richard Kerr and Richard Stone, 'A Human Trigger for the Great Quake of Sichuan?', Science, January 2009
3. Lei Xinglin, Ma Shengli, Wen Xueze, Su Jinrong and Du Fang, 'Dibiao shuiti dui duanceng yingli yu dizhen shikong fenbu yingxiang de zonghe fenxi: yi Zipingpu shuiku wei li', Dizhen Dizhi [Seismology and Geology], vol.30, no.4, December 2008.
4. A number of scientists had warned several years ago that the reservoirs of the Three Gorges Dam might trigger earthquakes, though on a much smaller scale than the quake that Zipingpu may have caused. See Gavan McCormack, 'Water Margins: Competing Paradigms in China', Critical Asian Studies, vol.33, no. 1, March 2001, p. 13.
5. Such numbers vary depending on definitions of regions and ways of measuring water supply, but not enough to affect the general conclusions. Here I define 'north and northwest China' to include the provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Henan and Gansu, plus Beijing and Tianjin municipalities; my figures are derived from Charles Greer, 'Chinese Water Management Strategies in the Yellow River Basin', PhD dissertation, University of Texas at Austin, 1975, p. 96.
6. For comparison see: Olli Varis and Perm" Vakkilainen, 'China's Eight Challenges to Water Resources Management", Geomorphology 41, 2001, p. 94
7. which defines the North China Plain as containing 34 per cent of China's population, 39 per cent of its arable land and 6 per cent of its river run-off; us Embassy in China, 'South-North Water Transfer Ready to Start Work", Beijing Environment, Science and Technology Update, 16 November 2001, p. 2
8. describes a larger North, containing 44 per cent of the population, 60 per cent of its arable land, and 15 per cent of its water; James Nickum, 'The Status of the South to North Water Transfer Plans in China', Occasional Papers: Topical Background Research for the hdr, gives estimates for the Huang-Huai-Hai plain of 33 per cent of population, 40 per cent of farmland and 8 per cent of water supply. The map labeled 'Water Resources Distribution in China' in Pan Jiazheng (Chinese National Committee on Large Dams), ed., Large Dams in China: History, Achievements, Prospects, Beijing 1987, makes the regional disparities look even larger. Mark Elvin, 'Water in China's Past and Present: Cooperation and Competition', Nouveaux Mondes 12, 2003, pp. 117-20
9. improves on some of these numbers by incorporating estimates for groundwater as well as surface water resources, but the basic regional distinctions remain of similar magnitude. His total 'north' would include 46 per cent of China's population, with just below 15 per cent of all available water resources, and thus about 20 per cent of the per capita supplies.
10. Elvin, 'Water in China', pp. 124-125
11. For one of many accounts of the tubewell revolution in North China see Charles Greer, Water Management in the Yellow River Basin of China, Austin, tx 1979, pp. 153-160 Greer notes that, as far back as 1959, Soviet engineers had seen a vast increase in groundwater exploitation as the only alternative to diverting southern waters to the north.
12. Eloise Kendy, Tammo Steenhuis and David Molden, 'Combining Urban and Rural Water Use for a Sustainable North China Plain', First International Yellow River Forum on River Basin Management, Zhengzhou, 12-15 May 2003.
13. Jim Yardley, Jake Hooker and Huang Yuanxi, 'Choking on Growth: Water and China's Future', New York Times, 28 September 2007.
14. Figures for the comparison come from: China News Digest, 21 May 1998
15. Eloise Kendy, David Molden, Tammo Steenhuis, Liu Changming and Wang Jiruria, Policies Drain the North China Plain: Agricultural Policy and Groundwater Depletion in Luancheng County, 1940-2000, International Water Management Institute, 2003.
16. For the Ogallala Aquifer, see: Marc Reisner, Cadillac Desert: The American West and Its Disappearing Water, New York 1993, pp. 435-455
17. Manjula Guru and James Home, The Ogallala Aquifer, us Geological Survey, National Water-Quality Assessment Program, 2000, pp. 1-12;
18. us Geological Survey, High Plains Regional Groundwater Study, 2007.
19. A figure of 51,000 pollution-related 'incidents' for 2005 alone is cited in 'Zhongguo shui wuran diaocha: bushi tianzai ershi renhuo', 15 August 2007, available at house.sina.com.
20. For Chinese figures, see Shao Qiujun and Zhang Qun, 'Evaluation on Sustainable Development of China's Iron and Steel Industry', 2008 International Symposium on Information Processing, p. 701;
21. for an idea of Indian practices see Manipadma Jena, 'Steel City Tackles its Water Woes', Infochange India website, October 2004.
22. Li Zijun, 'China Issues New Regulation on Water Management, Sets Fees for Usage', WorldWatch Institute, 14 March 2006. Elvin, 'Water in China', p. 113, citing 1990s data, suggests that between 84 and 88 per cent of water is used in agriculture. If we put these sources together, agricultural water use seems to have fallen almost 20 per cent since the late 1980s, without a decline in yields.
23. Sandra Postel, 'China's Unquenchable Thirst', World Watch, vol.20, issue 6, Nov-Dec 2007. Lower figures have been suggested, but none go below 20 times more income.
24. If they could, they would almost certainly find ready buyers and thus ease urban shortages; but as we will see in examples from India, the results can exacerbate problems of unsustainable water withdrawal.
25. Frank Ward and Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, 'Water Conservation in Irrigation can Increase Water Use', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol.105, no.47, 25 November 2008.
26. A good description of the project in English is Liu Changming, 'Environmental Issues and the South-North Water Transfer Scheme', China Quarterly 156, December 1998, pp. 900-904
27. See also McCormack, 'Water Margins', pp. 19-20;
28. us Embassy in China, 'South-North Water Transfer Ready to Start Work, pp. 1-2;
29. Nickum, 'Status of the South-to-North Water Transfer
30. South-to-North Water Transfer Project', Ministry of Water Resources website.
31. See Chris Buckley, 'China's Giant Water Scheme Creates Torrent of Discontent", Reuters, 27 February 2009
32. Michael Bristow, 'Delays Block China's Giant Water Scheme', bbc News, 8 February 2009
33. Shai Oster, 'Water Project in China is Delayed', Wall Street Journal, 31 December 2008.
34. Liu, 'South-North Water Transfer Scheme', p. 905.
35. On the Yangzi, see Tao Jingliang, 'Features of the Three Gorges Reservoir", in Joseph Witney and Shiu-hung Luk, eds, Mega-Project: A Case Study of China's Three Gorges Project, Armonk, ny 1993, p. 68
36. Lyman Van Slyke, Yangtze: Nature, History and the River, Reading, ma 1988, p. 15.
37. On the Yellow River, see Huanghe shuili shi shuyao, Beijing 1982, pp. 4-7.
38. Calculated from figures gathered in Li Jing, 'Yangtze hydro projects to get a boost", China Daily, 21 April 2009.
39. Timothy Gardner, 'Tibetan Glacial Shrink to Cut Water Supply by 2050', Reuters, 6 January 2009.
40. Keith Bradsher, 'China Outpaces US in Cleaner Coal-Fired Plants', New York Times, 10 May 2009.
41. Damn Magee, 'Powershed Politics: Yunnan Hydropower under Great Western Development', China Quarterly 185, March 2006, pp. 25-26
42. Grainne Ryder, 'Skyscraper Dams in Yunnan', Probe International, 12 May 2006, p. 3.
43. Magee, 'Powershed Polities', p. 35.
44. For a useful timeline of China's electrical power reforms, see the working paper by John Dore and Yu Xiaogang, 'Yunnan Hydropower Expansion', Unit for Social and Environmental Research, Chiang Mai University, March 2004, p. 13.
45. Yang Lifei, 'Li Xiaopeng Named Deputy Governor of Shanxi', Shanghai Daily, 12 June 2008;
46. Xinhua Economic News Service, 'Li Xiaopeng Appointed Vice Governor of Shanxi Province', 12 June 2008.
47. Grainne Ryder raises doubts about the economic rationality of Three Gorges and various Yunnan hydro projects on this basis: see 'Skyscraper Dams', pp. 5-6, and 'China's New Dam-Builders and the Emerging Regulatory Framework for Competitive Power Market", draft paper presented on the Mekong Programme on Water Environment and Resilience website, 6-7 July 2006.
48. Mark Elvin concludes that 'in engineering terms, the better opportunities for hydro-electric power have already been used up": 'Water in China", p. 125.
49. '6 Tibetans Seriously Wounded in Protests Against China's Hydro-Electric Dam Project", Central Tibet Administration website, 26 May 2009.
50. On Yamdrok Tso, see Death of a Sacred Lake, London 1996, produced by the Free Tibet Campaign (uk).
51. 'Permafrost Soil in Yangtze River Area Disappearing", Xinhua News Agency, 13 February 2009;
52. for the Chinese survey see Yang Jibin, 'Changjiang zai zheli shizong le', Nanfang zhoumo, 18 February 2009, available on the infzm.com website. The desertification of the wetlands is the subject of an informative video on the Asia Society website: 'Origins of Rivers: Omens of a Crisis'. A recent un report refers to the area as 'one of the most biodiverse and least disturbed temperate ecosystems in the world', while noting plans to build 28 dams nearby: World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 'Three Parallel Rivers of Yunnan Protected Areas', pp. I, 4-6.
53. See respectively 'Plan to Open Two More Trade Points with China', Hindustan Times, 21 November 2006;
54. 'India Quakes over China's Water Plan', Asia Times Online, 9 December 2008;
55. 'China won't divert world's highest river to thirsty north', Xinhua News Service, 25 May 2009. Unconfirmed reports from 2000 suggested that Beijing had already decided to go ahead, but not until 2009, when the Three Gorges project would be finished: McCormack, 'Water Margins', p. 18.
56. For these data, see P. K. Jensen, W. Van Der Hoek, F. Konradsen and W. A. Jehangir, 'Domestic Use of Irrigation Water in Punjab', wedc Conference, Islamabad 1998.
57. Shripad Dharmadhikary, Mountains of Concrete: Dam Building in the Himalayas, Berkeley 2008, p. 8.
58. For water supply see G. Karakunan Pillai, 'Interlinking of Rivers in India: Objectives and Plans', in Anil Kumar Thakur and Pushpa Kumari, eds, Interlinking of Rivers in India: Costs and Benefits, New Delhi 2007, p. 3;
59. in the same collection, Shashi Bala Jain, 'Interlinking of Indian Rivers: A Viewpoint", p. 24.
60. For irrigation see John Briscoe, India's Water Economy Bracing for a Turbulent Future, World Bank draft report, 2005, pp. 4, 14-23, 41-5. Briscoe emphasizes that better maintenance and operation of existing facilities is now a more urgent need than further construction, but that the required shift in resources has not occurred.
61. Briscoe, India's Water Economy, pp. 23-24, gives figures relative to the fiscal deficits of various Indian states. Daniel Pepper, 'India's Water Shortage', Fortune, 24 January 2008, puts the cost to the electrical power industry of subsidizing farmers at $9 billion per year.
62. Sean Daily, 'Mass Farmer Suicide Sobering Reminder of Consequences of Water Shortages', Belfast Telegraph, 15 April 2009. The story refers to a recent mass suicide of 1,500 farmers, and an estimate that 200,000 farmers have committed suicide (presumably not all as a protest gesture) over a period of 12 years.
63. See, for instance, Georgina Drew, 'From the Groundwater Up: Asserting Water Rights in India', Development 51, 2008, pp. 37-41. Coca-Cola's defenders note that they pay a higher rate for the electricity with which they bring up water than do farmers; nonetheless, they are able to afford larger amounts of it, which lowers the water table and leaves less for farmers. Waste products from Coca-Cola plants have also been a source of controversy.
64. See Government of Punjab Food, Civil Supplies and Consumer Affairs Department website; Dharmadhikary, Mountains of Concrete, pp. 8-9.
65. Indu Agnihotri, 'Ecology, Land Use and Colonization: The Canal Colonies of Punjab', Indian Economic and Social History Review, vol.33, no.1,1996, pp. 48-55
66. Mike Davis, Late Victorian Holocausts, London 2001, pp. 332-5 points to a number of problems with British irrigation projects in India (not just Punjab) that began appearing even in the late 19th century.
67. Briscoe, India's Water, p. 22; 'Pakistan's Water Crisis', PRI's The World, 13 April 2009. Where the river used to be 5 km wide near Karachi, it is now only 200 metres.
68. Briscoe, India's Water, pp. 37-8;
69. Anju Kohli, 'Interlinking of Indian Rivers: Inter-State Water Disputes', in Thakur and Kumari, Interlinking of Rivers in India, pp. 287-92.
70. Dharmadhikary, Mountains of Concrete, p. 7. The world's installed hydro-electric capacity is currently around 675,000 megawatts: see National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Power Technologies Energy Data Book, Golden, co 2005, p. 51.
71. Dharmadhikary, Mountains of Concrete, pp. 8-15. For Pakistani funding see also Ann-Kathrin Schneider, 'South Asia's Most Costly Dam Gets an Infusion', World Rivers Review, vol.23, no.4, December 2008, citing a consortium involving Chinese companies and 'some Arab countries'.
72. Amena Bakr, 'Pakistan offers farmland to foreign investors', Reuters, 20 April 2009, and 'Pakistan Opens More Farmland to Foreigners', Maktoob, 17 May 2009. Pakistan had over 56 million acres under cultivation in 1997.
73. 'Buying farmland abroad: Outsourcing's third wave', Economist, 23-29 May 2009. The International Food Policy Research Institute tracks these transactions, while noting that many appear to be kept secret: Joachim von Braun and Ruth Meinzen- Dick, '"Land Grabbing" by Foreign Investors in Developing Countries', available on ifpri website, April 2009. Chinese purchases seem to be predominantly in Africa, and mostly with an eye to biofuel production.
74. Ramaswamy Iyer, 'River-linking Project: A Critique', in Yonginder Alagh, Ganesh Pangare and Biksham Gujja, eds, Interlinking of Rivers in India, New Delhi 2006, pp. 61-2;
75. A. Muniam, 'Water Crisis in India: Is Linking of Rivers a Solution?', in Thakur and Kumari, Interlinking of Rivers: Costs and Benefits, p. 229; in the same collection, Debotpal Goswami, 'Linking of Major Rivers: the Case for Mighty Brahmaputra', pp. 297-8.
76. Narendra Prasad, 'A Bird's Eye View on Interlinking of Rivers in India', in Thakur and Kumari, Interlinking of Rivers: Costs and Benefits, p. 19.
77. See the map in Jayanta Bandyopadhyay and Shama Perveen, 'A Scrutiny of the Justifications for the Proposed Inter-linking of Rivers in India', in Alagh et al., Interlinking of Rivers, p. 30.
78. For cost estimate, see Ashok Khosla's 'Foreword', p. 11, and for estimates of power generation, Iyer, 'River-linking Project", p. 57, in the same collection.
79. See also Narpat Singh Rathore, 'Proposed Plan for Satluj-Ghaggar-Yamuna- Jojari-Luni-Sabarmati River Link channels', presented at Map India conference, January 2003.
80. H. H. Uliveppa and M. N. Siddingappanavar, 'Interlinking of Rivers in India: Problems and Prospects', in Thakur and Kumari, Interlinking of Rivers: Costs and Benefits, p. 276.
81. Krishna Nand Yadav, 'Interlinking of Rivers: Need of the Hour", in Thakur and Kumari, Interlinking of Rivers: Costs and Benefits, p. 71.
82. On Sanmenxia, see Pomeranz, 'The Transformation of China's Environment, 1500-2000', in Edmund T. Burke iii and Kenneth Pomeranz, eds, The Environment and World History 1500-2000, Berkeley 2009, p. 138.
83. Free Tibet Campaign, Death of a Sacred Lake, p. 7
84. Wang Xiaoqiang and Bai Nianfeng, The Poverty of Plenty, p. 89;
85. and Dharmadhikary, Mountains of Concrete, p. 28.
86. See the essays in Thakur and Kumari, Interlinking of Rivers: Costs and Benefits, especially Sharma and Kumari, 'Interlinking of Rivers: Rationale, Benefits, and Costs'.
87. Briscoe, India's Water, pp. 45-46
88. Dharmadhikary, Mountains of Concrete, pp. 23-27
89. For the emissions, see Ivan Lima, Fernando Ramos, Luis Bambace and Reinaldo Rosa, 'Methane Emissions from Large Dams as Renewable Energy Resources: A Developing Nation Perspective', Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, vol.13, no.2, February 2008, pp. 200 and 202, table 2.
90. Shi Jiangtao, 'Wen Calls Halt to Yunnan Dam Plan', South China Morning Post, 21 May 2009, re-published by the International Rivers Network's China Dams List; Dore and Yu, 'Yunnan Hydropower Expansion', p. 14;
91. planned projects on the Jinsha (a Yangzi tributary) and Lancang-Mekong are listed on p. 15.
92. Milton Osborne., 'The Water Politics of China and Southeast Asia II: Rivers., Dams., Cargo Boats and the Environmenf., Lowy Institute., May 2007., pp. 4.,10-11.
93. See also Shan Herald Agency for News., 'Activists Protest Tasang Dam'., 26 October 2003. The Shan themselves are mosUy lowland agriculturalists., but the Shan territory includes many other peoples.
94. Karen Environmental and Social Action Network., Khoe Kay: Biodiversity in Peril., July 2008.
95. Figures from Magee., 'Powershed Polities'., pp. 28-29, and accompanying notes.
96. Geoffrey Gunn and Brian McCartan., in 'Chinese Dams and the Great Mekong Floods of 2008'., Japan Focus., 31 August 2008., suggest 15 dams Magee., 'Powershed Politics'., pp. 31-32, notes plans for between 8 and 14.
97. A useful short history is Nguyen Thi Dieu., The Mekong River and the Struggle for Indochina., Westport., ct 1999; pp. 49-96 cover the years between the end of World War 11 and American escalation in the mid-1960s.
98. Osborne., 'Water Politics of Southeast Asia'., pp. 11-16;
99. Gunn and McCartan., 'Chinese Dams and the Great Mekong Floods of 2008'., note that China's emphasis for the Mekong is now changing from transport to energy.
100. See Foundation for Ecological Recovery website., 'Key Points' from the International Conference., 'Mekong Mainstream Dams: People's Voices across Borders'., 12-13 November 2008.
101. Dore and Yu., 'Yunnan Hydropower Expansion'., p. 21., cite estimated increases of dry-season flows ranging from 40 to 90 per cent for various points on the river. The claim that these dams will have only limited effects is far from universally accepted-many blame the Lancang dams for last year's huge Mekong floods: Gunn and McCartan., 'Chinese Dams and the Great Mekong Floods of 2008'.
102. Jorgen Jensen., '1.,000.,000 Tonnes of Fish from the Mekong"., Mekong River Fisheries Newsletter., Catch and Culture., vol. 2., no. 1., August 1996
103. Frank Zeller., 'New Rush to Dam Mekong Alarms Environmentalists'., Agence France Presse., 27 March 2008;
104. 'un Says China Dams Threaten Water Supplies to Mekong Delta Farmers'., VietNamNet/tt., 27 May 2009.
105. See also Elizabeth Economy., The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future., Ithaca 2005., p. 204.
106. See Patrick Dugan., 'Mainstream Dams as Barriers to Fish Migration'., Mekong River Fisheries Newsletter., Catch and Culture., vol.14., no.3., December 2008.
107. Jiang Gaoming., 'The High Price of Developing Dams'., China Dialogue., 22 January 2009.
108. McCormack cites protests by., among others., the senior water engineer Huang Wanli: 'Water Margins'., p. 13. Probably the best known critic of the Three Gorges., Dai Qing., is also an engineer by training., though not a water engineer.
109. Natalie Kehrwald., Lonnie Thompson., Yao Tandong., Ellen Mosley-Thompson., Ulrich Schotterer., Vasily Alfimov., Jürg Beer., Jost Eikenberg and Mary Davis., 'Mass Loss on Himalayan Glacier Endangers Water Resources'., Geophysical Research Letters., vol.35., L22503., 2008.
110. Gardner., Tibetan Glacial Shrink to Cut Water Supply by 2050'.
111. Briscoe., India's Water., p. 32 has projections for the Indus., Ganges and Brahmaputra.
112. Ann-Kathrin Schneider., 'Dam Boom in Himalayas Will Create Mountains of Risk'., World Rivers Review., vol.24., no.1., March 2009., p. 10.