Hindsight bias redefined: It's about time

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Volumn 110, Issue 1, 2009, Pages 56-64

  Fessel, Florian ^a   Epstude, Kai ^b   Roese, Neal J ^c  

^a UNION COLLEGE   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF GRONINGEN   (Netherlands)

^c NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Affective forecasting; Bias; Hindsight bias; Knew it all along effect; Likelihood judgment; Overconfidence; Temporal perspective; Time

Indexed keywords

EID: 69249217646     PISSN: 07495978     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2009.07.001     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Arkes H.R. Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing. Psychological Bulletin 110 (1991) 486-498
2. Blank H., Musch J., and Pohl R.F. Hindsight bias: On being wise after the event. Social Cognition 25 (2007) 1-9
3. Blank H., and Nestler S. Cognitive process models of hindsight bias. Social Cognition 25 (2007) 132-146
4. Blank H., Nestler S., von Collani G., and Fischer V. How many hindsight biases are there?. Cognition 106 (2008) 1408-1440
5. Bryant F.B., and Brockway J.H. Hindsight bias in reaction to the verdict in the O. J. Simpson criminal trial. Basic and Applied Social Psychology 19 (1997) 225-241
6. Bryant F.B., and Guibault R.L. "I knew it all along" eventually: The development of hindsight bias in reaction to the Clinton impeachment verdict. Basic and Applied Social Psychology 24 (2002) 27-41
7. Buehler R., and McFarland C. Intensity bias in affective forecasting: The role of temporal focus. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 27 (2001) 1480-1493
8. Burson K.A., Larrick R.P., and Klayman J. Skilled or unskilled, but still unaware of it: How perceptions of difficulty drive miscalibration in relative comparisons. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 90 (2006) 60-67
9. Carli L.L. Cognitive reconstruction, hindsight, and reactions to victims and perpetrators. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 25 (1999) 966-979
10. Chaiken S., and Trope Y. Dual-process theories in social psychology (1999), Guilford Press, New York
11. Christensen-Szalanski J.J.J., and Willham C.F. The hindsight bias: A meta-analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 48 (1991) 147-168
12. Fischhoff B. Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1 (1975) 288-299
13. Fischhoff B., and Beyth R. "I knew it would happen": Remembered probabilities of once-future things. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13 (1975) 1-16
14. Guilbault R.L., Bryant F.B., Brockway J.H., and Posavac E.J. A meta-analysis of research on hindsight bias. Basic and Applied Social Psychology 26 (2004) 103-117
15. Harley E.M. Hindsight bias in legal decision making. Social Cognition 25 (2007) 48-63
16. Harley E.M., Carlsen K.A., and Loftus G.R. The "saw-it-all-along" effect: Demonstrations of visual hindsight bias. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 30 (2004) 960-968
17. Hastie R., Schkade D.A., and Payne J.W. Juror judgments in civil cases: Hindsight effects on judgments of liability for punitive damages. Law and Human Behavior 23 (1999) 597-614
18. Hawkins S.A., and Hastie R. Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin 107 (1990) 311-327
19. Hoffrage U., Hertwig R., and Gigerenzer G. Hindsight bias: A by-product of knowledge updating?. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 26 (2000) 566-581
20. Kermer D.A., Driver-Linn E., Wilson T.D., and Gilbert D.T. Loss aversion is an affective forecasting error. Psychological Science 17 (2006) 649-653
21. Krueger J., and Mueller R.A. Unskilled, unaware, or both? The better-than-average heuristic and statistical regression predict errors in estimates of own performance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 82 (2002) 180-188
22. Louie T.A. Hindsight bias and outcome-consistent thoughts when observing and making service provider decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 98 (2005) 88-95
23. Lowe D.J., and Reckers P.M.J. The effect of hindsight bias on jurors' evaluations of auditor decisions. Decision Sciences 25 (1994) 401-426
24. Moore D.A., and Healy P.J. The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review 115 (2008) 502-517
25. Müller P.A., and Stahlberg D. The role of surprise in hindsight bias: A metacognitive model of reduced and reversed hindsight bias. Social Cognition 25 (2007) 165-184
26. Mussweiler T. Comparison processes in social judgment: Mechanisms and consequences. Psychological Review 110 (2003) 472-489
27. Ofir C., and Mazursky D. Does a surprising outcome reinforce or reverse the hindsight bias?. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 69 (1996) 50-57
28. Pennington D.C. The British firemen's strike of 1977/78: An investigation of judgments in foresight and hindsight. British Journal of Social Psychology 20 (1981) 89-96
29. Pezzo M. Surprise, defense, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?. Memory 11 (2003) 421-441
30. Pohl R.F. Ways to assess hindsight bias. Social Cognition 25 (2007) 14-31
31. Robinson L.B., and Hastie R. Revision of beliefs when a hypothesis is eliminated from consideration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 11 (1985) 443-456
32. Roese N.J. Twisted pair: Counterfactual thinking and the hindsight bias. In: Koehler D.J., and Harvey N. (Eds). Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making (2004), Blackwell Publishing, Malden, MA, USA 258-273
33. Roese N.J., Fessel F., Summerville A., Kruger J., and Dilich M.A. The propensity effect: When foresight trumps hindsight. Psychological Science 17 (2006) 305-310
34. Roese N.J., and Maniar S.D. Perceptions of purple: Counterfactual and hindsight judgments at Northwestern Wildcats football games. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 23 (1997) 1245-1253
35. Roese N.J., and Olson J.M. Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A conceptual integration. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 32 (1996) 197-227
36. Rouder J.N., Lu J., Speckman P., Sun D., and Jiang Y. A hierarchical model for estimating response time distributions. Psychonomic Bulletin and Review 12 (2005) 195-223
37. Schkade D.A., and Kilbourne L.M. Expectation-outcome consistency and hindsight bias. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 49 (1991) 105-123
38. Stanovich K.E., and West R.F. Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (2000) 645-726
39. Tetlock P.E., and Lebow R.N. Poking counterfactual holes in covering laws: Cognitive styles and historical reasoning. American Political Science Review 95 (2001) 829-843
40. Wasserman D., Lempert R.O., and Hastie R. Hindsight and causality. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 17 (1991) 30-35
41. Wilson T.D., and Gilbert D.T. Affective forecasting. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology 35 (2003) 345-411
42. Wood G. The knew-it-all-along effect. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 4 (1978) 345-353