Spatial and interspecific variability in phenological responses to warming temperatures

Biological Conservation

Volumn 142, Issue 11, 2009, Pages 2569-2577

  Primack, Richard B ^a   Ibáñez, Inés ^b   Higuchi, Hiroyoshi ^c   Lee, Sang Don ^d   Miller Rushing, Abraham J ^a,e,f   Wilson, Adam M ^g   Silander Jr , John A ^g  

^a Boston University   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^d Ewha Womans University   (South Korea)

^e Wildlife Society   (United States)

^f National Phenology Network   (United States)

^g UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT   (United States)

Author keywords

Animal phenology; Climate change; East Asia; Geographic differences; Global warning; Hierarchical Bayes; Plant phenology; Spatial variability

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; BIRD; COMMUNITY RESPONSE; FROG; GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION; GLOBAL WARMING; HIERARCHICAL SYSTEM; INSECT; INTERSPECIFIC VARIATION; PHENOLOGY; PLANT COMMUNITY;

ASIA; EURASIA; FAR EAST;

ANIMALIA; ANURA; AVES; HEXAPODA;

EID: 69249216394     PISSN: 00063207     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2009.06.003     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Both C., Bouwhuis S., Lessells C.M., and Visser M.E. Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441 (2006) 81-83
2. Brooks S.P., and Gelman A. General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 7 (1998) 434-455
3. Chen X. East Asia. In: Schwartz M.D. (Ed). Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science (2003), Kluwer, Dordrecht 11-25
4. Chuine I. A unified model for budburst of trees. Journal of Theoretical Biology 207 (2000) 337-347
5. Clark J.S., Mohan J., Dietze M., and Ibáñez I. Coexistence: how to identify trophic trade-offs. Ecology 84 (2003) 17-31
6. Cleland E.E., Chuine I., Menzel A., Mooney H.A., and Schwartz M.D. Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends Ecology and Evolution 22 (2007) 357-365
7. Cotton P.A. Avian migration phenology and global climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 100 (2003) 12219-12222
8. Davis M.B., and Shaw R.G. Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science 292 (2001) 673-679
9. Doi H. Winter flowering phenology of Japanese apricot Prunus mume reflects climate change across Japan. Climate Research 34 (2007) 99-104
10. Doi H. Delayed phenological timing of dragonfly emergence in Japan over five decades. Biology Letters 4 (2008) 388-391
11. Doi H., and Katano I. Phenological timings of leaf budburst with climate change in Japan. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 148 (2008) 512-516
12. Doi H., and Takahashi M. Latitudinal patterns in the phenological responses of leaf colouring and leaf fall to climate change in Japan. Global Ecology and Biogeography 17 (2008) 556-561
13. Doi H., Gordo O., and Katano I. Heterogeneous intra-annual climatic changes drive different phenological responses at two trophic levels. Climate Research 36 (2008) 181-190
14. Dunn P.O., and Winkler D.W. Climate change has affected the breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 266 (1999) 2487-2490
15. Etterson J.R., and Shaw R.G. Constraint to adaptive evolution in response to global warming. Science 294 (2001) 151-154
16. Fitter A.H., and Fitter R.S.R. Rapid changes in flowering time in British plants. Science 296 (2002) 1689-1691
17. Geman S., and Geman D. Stochastic relaxation, Gibbs distributions, and the Bayesian restoration of images. IEEE T Pattern Analysis 6 (1984) 721-741
18. Harrington R., Woiwod I., and Sparks T. Climate change and trophic interactions. Trends Ecology and Evolution 14 (1999) 146-150
19. Hartel T. Within pond variation of the egg deposition site in Rana dalmatina. Biologia 3 (2008) 439-443
20. In: Higuchi H. (Ed). Conservation Biology (1996), University of Tokyo Press, Tokyo
21. Ho C.-H., Lee E.-J., Lee I., and Jeong S.-J. Earlier spring in Seoul, Korea. International Journal of Climatology 26 (2006) 2117-2127
22. Inouye D.W., Barr B., Armitage K.B., and Inouye B.D. Climate change is affecting altitudinal migrants and hibernating species. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 97 (2000) 1630-1633
23. IPCC., 2007. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., et al. (Eds.), Cambridge University Press, New York.
24. Kai K., Kainuma M., and Murakoshi N. Effects of global warming on the phenological observation in Japan. In: Omasa K., Kai K., Taoda H., Uchijima Z., and Yoshino M. (Eds). Climate Change and Plants in East Asia (1996), Springer, Tokyo 85-92
25. Lane S.J., and Fujioka M. The impact of changes in irrigation practices on the distribution of foraging egrets and herons (Ardeidae) in the rice fields of central Japan. Biological Conservation 83 (1998) 221-230
26. Lehikoinen E., Sparks T.H., and Zalakevicius M. Arrival and departure dates. In: Møller A.P., Fiedler W., and Berthold P. (Eds). Birds and Climate Change (2006), Elsevier, Amsterdam 1-31
27. Lyon B.E., Chaine A.S., and Winkler D.W. A matter of timing. Science 321 (2008) 1051-1052
28. Matsumoto K., Ohta T., Irasawa M., and Nakamura T. Climate change and extension of the Ginkgo biloba L. growing season in Japan. Global Change Biology 9 (2003) 1634-1642
29. Menzel A., Sparks T.H., Estrella N., Koch E., Aasa A., Ahas R., Alm-Kübler K., Bissolli P., Braslavská O., Briede A., Chmielewski F.M., Crepinsek Z., Curnel Y., Dahl A., Defila C., Donnelly A., Filella Y., Jatczak K., Måge F., Mestre A., Nordli Ø., Peñuelas J., Pirinen P., Remisova V., Scheifinger H., Striz M., Susnik A., Van Vliet A.J.H., Wielgolaski F.-E., Zach S., and Zust A. European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Global Change Biology 12 (2006) 1969-1976
30. Michaels S., and Amasino R. Memories of winter: vernalization and the competence to flower. Plant Cell and Environment 23 (2000) 1145-1153
31. Miller-Rushing A.J., and Primack R.B. Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's concord: a community perspective. Ecology 89 (2008) 332-341
32. Miller-Rushing A.J., Inouye D.W., and Primack R.B. How well do first flowering dates measure plant responses to climate change? The effects of population size and sampling frequency. Journal of Ecology 96 (2008) 1289-1296
33. Miller-Rushing A.J., Lloyd-Evans T.L., Primack R.B., and Satzinger P. Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes. Global Change Biology 14 (2008) 1959-1972
34. Morin X., Lechowicz M.J., Augspurger C., O'Keefe J., Viner D., and Chuine I. Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century. Global Change Biology 15 (2009) 961-975
35. Moriya K. Studies on the five races of the Japanese pond frog, Rana nigromaculata Hallowell. I. Differences in the morphological characters. Journal of Science of Hiroshima University Series B, Division 1 15 (1954) 1-21
36. Parmesan C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37 (2006) 637-669
37. Parmesan C. Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming. Global Change Biology 13 (2007) 1860-1872
38. Parmesan C., and Yohe G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421 (2003) 37-42
39. Root T.L., Price J.T., Hall K.R., Schneider S.H., Rosenzweig C., and Pounds J.A. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421 (2003) 57-60
40. Sherry R.A., Zhou X., Gu S., Snone J.A., Schimel D.S., Verburg P.S., Wallace L.L., and Luo Y. Divergence of reproductive phenology under climate warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 104 (2007) 198-202
41. Sparks T.H., and Carey P.D. The responses of species to climate over two centuries: an analysis of the Marsham phenological record, 1736-1947. Journal of Ecology 83 (1995) 321-329
42. Sparks T.H., Bairlein F., Bojarinova J.G., Huppop O., Lehikoinen E.A., Rainio K., Sokolov L.V., and Walker D. Examining the total arrival distribution of migratory birds. Global Change Biology 11 (2005) 22-30
43. Spiegelhalter D.J., Best N., Carlin B.P., and van der Linde A. Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit. Journal of the Royal Statistics Society B 64 (2002) 583-639
44. Spiegelhalter, D.J., Thomas, N., Best, N., Gilks, W., 2006. BUGS 0.5: Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling-manual. Version ii. Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge.
45. Stenseth N.C., and Mysterud A. Climate, changing phenology, and other life history traits: nonlinearity and match-mismatch to the environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA 99 (2002) 13379-13381
46. Sumida M., Ogata M., Kaneda H., and Yonekawa H. Evolutionary relationships among Japanese pond frogs from mitochondrial DNA sequences of cytochrome b and 12S ribosomal RNA genes. Genes and Genetic Systems 73 (1998) 121-133
47. Tryjanowski P., and Sparks T.H. Is the detection of the first arrival date of migrating birds influenced by population size? A case study of the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio. International Journal of Biometeorology 45 (2001) 217-219
48. Visser M.E., and Both C. Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 272 (2005) 2561-2569
49. Zhang X., Tarpley D., and Sullivan J.T. Diverse responses of vegetation phenology to a warming climate. Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007) L19405 10.1029/2007GL031447