From Granger causality to long-term causality: Application to climatic data

Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics

Volumn 80, Issue 1, 2009, Pages

  Smirnov, Dmitry A ^a   Mokhov, Igor I ^b  

^a INSTITUTE OF RADIO ENGINEERING AND ELECTRONICS   (Russian Federation)

^b OBUKHOV INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS; CLIMATIC DATA; EMPIRICAL MODELING; GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE; GRANGER CAUSALITY; MODEL DYNAMICS; QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERIZATION; SOLAR ACTIVITY; VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES;

CARBON DIOXIDE; ENGINEERING GEOLOGY; SOLAR ENERGY; TIME SERIES;

SYSTEM THEORY;

EID: 68949105356     PISSN: 15393755     EISSN: 15502376     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.016208     Document Type: Article

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53. To simulate the model values of T in 2000-2005 under the condition C0, the time series V (t) is expanded with the values V (t) =0 in 2000-2005 which are close to V (1999). These lowest possible values may somewhat overestimate the model values of T in 2000-2005. Nevertheless, it appears that even with them the model 12 fails to describe the GST trend in the recent decades.