메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 41, Issue 6, 2009, Pages 1217-1231

Has the economy become more predictable? Changes in greenbook forecast accuracy

Author keywords

Forecast errors; Greenbook; Predictability; Volatility

Indexed keywords


EID: 68949094059     PISSN: 00222879     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00253.x     Document Type: Short Survey
Times cited : (43)

References (32)
  • 1
    • 0001758906 scopus 로고
    • Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Estimation
    • Andrews, Donald 1991 Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Estimation Econometrica, 59, 817 58.
    • (1991) Econometrica , vol.59 , pp. 817-858
    • Andrews, D.1
  • 2
    • 0000209591 scopus 로고
    • Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present only under the Alternative
    • and
    • Andrews, Donald, and Werner Ploberger 1994 Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative Econometrica, 62, 1383 414.
    • (1994) Econometrica , vol.62 , pp. 1383-1414
    • Andrews, D.1    Ploberger, W.2
  • 3
    • 0001715073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation
    • and
    • Atkeson, Andrew, and Lee E. Ohanian 2001 Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation FRB Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Winter, 2 11.
    • (2001) FRB Minneapolis Quarterly Review , pp. 2-11
    • Atkeson, A.1    Ohanian, L.E.2
  • 4
    • 0001530977 scopus 로고
    • A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles
    • and
    • Beaulieu, J. Joseph, and Jeffrey A. Miron 1992 A Cross Country Comparison of Seasonal Cycles and Business Cycles Economic Journal, 102, 772 88.
    • (1992) Economic Journal , vol.102 , pp. 772-788
    • Beaulieu, J.J.1    Miron, J.A.2
  • 5
    • 33646427059 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Speech to the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC. February 20.
    • Bernanke, Ben S. (2004 The Great Moderation Speech to the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC, February 20.
    • (2004) The Great Moderation
    • Bernanke, B.S.1
  • 6
  • 7
    • 0035628153 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility
    • and
    • Blanchard, Olivier, and John Simon 2001 The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 135 64.
    • (2001) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , vol.1 , pp. 135-164
    • Blanchard, O.1    Simon, J.2
  • 9
    • 34248575833 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Macroeconomic Volatility, Predictability and Uncertainty in the Great Moderation: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters
    • Campbell, Sean D. (2007 Macroeconomic Volatility, Predictability and Uncertainty in the Great Moderation: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 25, 191 200.
    • (2007) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.25 , pp. 191-200
    • Campbell, S.D.1
  • 10
    • 29244443447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating Direct Multi-Step Forecasts
    • and
    • Clark, Todd E., and Michael W. McCracken 2005 Evaluating Direct Multi-Step Forecasts Econometric Reviews, 24, 369 404.
    • (2005) Econometric Reviews , vol.24 , pp. 369-404
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 15
    • 0039447737 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle
    • and
    • Kim, Chang-Jin, and Charles Nelson 1999 Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle Review of Economics and Statistics, 81, 608 16.
    • (1999) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.81 , pp. 608-616
    • Kim C.-Jin1    Nelson, C.2
  • 16
    • 0000118629 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980s
    • and
    • McConnell, Margaret, and Gabriel Perez-Quiros 2000 Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s American Economic Review, 90, 1464 76.
    • (2000) American Economic Review , vol.90 , pp. 1464-1476
    • McConnell, M.1    Perez-Quiros, G.2
  • 17
    • 12444319420 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Speech at Willamette University, Salem Oregon. April 2.
    • Meyer, Laurence H. (1998 Come with Me to the FOMC Speech at Willamette University, Salem Oregon, April 2.
    • (1998) Come with Me to the FOMC
    • Meyer, L.H.1
  • 18
    • 0000706085 scopus 로고
    • A Simple, Positive, Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix
    • and
    • Newey, Whitney K., and Kenneth D. West 1987 A Simple, Positive, Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Econometrica, 55, 703 8.
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , pp. 703-708
    • Newey, W.K.1    West, K.D.2
  • 19
    • 84963002108 scopus 로고
    • Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation
    • and
    • Newey, Whitney K., and Kenneth D. West 1994 Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation Review of Economic Studies, 61, 631 53.
    • (1994) Review of Economic Studies , vol.61 , pp. 631-653
    • Newey, W.K.1    West, K.D.2
  • 20
    • 31544462063 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Change over Time
    • and
    • O'Reilly, Gerard, and Karl Whelan 2005 Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Change Over Time Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, 709 20.
    • (2005) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.87 , pp. 709-720
    • O'Reilly, G.1    Whelan, K.2
  • 24
    • 0002115197 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates
    • and
    • Romer, Christina D., and David H. Romer 2000 Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates American Economic Review, 90, 429 57.
    • (2000) American Economic Review , vol.90 , pp. 429-457
    • Romer, C.D.1    Romer, D.H.2
  • 26
    • 20344401855 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An evaluation of recent macroeconomic forecast errors
    • Schuh, Scott 2001 An Evaluation of Recent Macroeconomic Forecast Errors New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, January-February, 35 56. (Pubitemid 33727345)
    • (2001) New England Economic Review , Issue.1 , pp. 35-56
    • Schuh, S.1
  • 27
    • 0037004228 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process
    • Sims, Christopher 2002 The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 1 62.
    • (2002) Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , vol.2 , pp. 1-62
    • Sims, C.1
  • 28
    • 2442577869 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Has the Business Cycle Changed? Evidence and Explanations
    • and. In. Jackson Hole, WY. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium.
    • Stock, James H., and Mark W. Watson 2003 Has the Business Cycle Changed? Evidence and Explanations In Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy. Jackson Hole, WY : Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium.
    • (2003) Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to A Changing Economy.
    • Stock, J.H.1    Watson, M.W.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.