An evidence synthesis approach to estimating Hepatitis C prevalence in England and Wales

Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Volumn 18, Issue 4, 2009, Pages 361-379

  De Angelis, D ^a,b   Sweeting, M ^b   Ades, A E ^c   Hickman, M ^c   Hope, V ^a,d   Ramsay, M ^a  

^a PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

^d LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

HEPATITIS C ANTIBODY;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; BLOOD DONOR; CONTROLLED STUDY; EPIDEMIC; FEMALE; HEALTH PROGRAM; HEPATITIS C; HUMAN; INTRAVENOUS DRUG ABUSE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; POPULATION SIZE; PREGNANT WOMAN; PREVALENCE; RISK FACTOR; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; UNITED KINGDOM;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDIES; ENGLAND; FEMALE; HEPACIVIRUS; HEPATITIS C, CHRONIC; HUMANS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; SUBSTANCE ABUSE, INTRAVENOUS; WALES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 68449104763     PISSN: 09622802     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0962280208094691     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Hepatitis C-global prevalence (update). Wkly Epidemiol Rec 1999; 74(49): 425-27.
2. Micallef JM, Kaldor JM, Dore GJ Spontaneous viral clearance following acute hepatitis C infection: A systematic review of longitudinal studies. J Viral Hepat 2006; 13(1): 34-41.
3. Seeff LB Natural history of chronic hepatitis C. Hepatology 2002; 36(5 Suppl 1): S35-S46.
4. Alter MJ, Kruszon-Moran D., Nainan OV, McQuillan GM, Gao F., Moyer LA et al. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus infection in the United States, 1988 through 1994. N Engl J Med 1999; 341(8): 556-62.
5. Law MG, Dore GJ, Bath N., Thompson S., Crofts N., Dolan K. et al. Modelling hepatitis C virus incidence, prevalence and long-term sequelae in Australia, 2001. International Journal of Epidemiology 2003; 32(5): 717-24.
6. Hutchinson SJ, Bird SM, Goldberg DJ Modelling the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C among injecting drug users in Scotland. Hepatology 2005; 42(3): 711-23.
7. Amin J., Gidding H., Gilbert G., Backhouse J., Kaldor J., Dore G. et al. Hepatitis C prevalence-a nationwide serosurvey. Commun Dis Intell 2004; 28(4): 517-21.
8. Gungabissoon U., Balogun MA, Ramsay ME Hepatitis C virus: Laboratory surveillance in England and Wales, 1992-2004. Epidemiol Infect 2007; 135(4): 541-48.
9. Hepatitis C in England: An update. Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, 2007.
10. The UK vs. Europe: Ready to Fight Back? Report by The Hepatitis C Trust and University of Southampton, 2006.
11. Balogun MA, Ramsay ME, Hesketh LM, Andrews N., Osborne KP, Gay NJ et al. The prevalence of hepatitis C in England and Wales. Journal of Infection 2002; 45(4): 219-26.
12. Sweeting MJ, De Angelis D., Hickman M., Ades AE Estimating hepatitis C prevalence in England and Wales by synthesising evidence from multiple data sources. Assessing data conflict and model fit. Biostatistics, 2008. (see http://biostatistics.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/ kxn004?ijkey=S9190cWrnJLrfoq&keytype=ref).
13. Welton NJ, Ades AE A model of toxoplasmosis incidence in the UK: evidence synthesis and consistency of evidence. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics 2005; 54: 385-404.
14. Goubar A., Ades AE, De Angelis D., McGarrigle CA, Mercer CH, Tookey PA et al. Estimates of human immunodeficiency virus prevalence and proportion diagnosed based on Bayesian multiparameter synthesis of surveillance data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society 2008; 171(3): 541-80.
15. Hickman M., Hope V., Brady T., Madden P., Jones S., Honor S. et al. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence, and injecting risk behaviour in multiple sites in England in 2004. J Viral Hepat 2007; 14(9): 645-52.
16. Hickman M., Higgins V., Hope V., Bellis M., Tilling K., Walker A. et al. Injecting drug use in Brighton, Liverpool, and London: Best estimates of prevalence and coverage of public health indicators. J Epidemiol Community Health 2004; 58(9): 766-71.
17. Roe S., Man L. Drug misuse declared: Findings from the 2006/06 British Crime Survey. Home Office Research, Development and Statistics Directorate 2006; 15/06.
18. Becker J., Roe S. Drug use among vulnerable groups of young people: findings from the 2003 Crime and Justice Survey. Home Office Research, Development and Statistics Directorate 2005; 254.
19. Hickman M., Vickerman P., Macleod J., Kirkbride J., Jones PB Cannabis and schizophrenia: Model projections of the impact of the rise in cannabis use on historical and future trends in schizophrenia in England and Wales. Addiction 2007; 102(4): 597-606.
20. Singleton N., Bumpstead R., O'Brian M., Lee A., Meltzer H. Psychiatric morbidity among adults living in private households, 2000. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 2001.
21. Johnson AM, Wadsworth J., Wellings K., Field J. Sexual attitudes and lifestyles. Oxford Blackwell Scientific Press; 1994.
22. Hook EB, Regal RR Capture-recapture methods in epidemiology: Methods and limitations. Epidemiol Rev 1995; 17(2): 243-64.
23. Hickman M., Taylor C., Chatterjee A., Degenhardt L., Frischer M., Hay G. et al. Estimating drug prevalence: Review of methods with special reference to developing countries. UN Bulletin on Narcotics 2003; LIV (1 and 2): 15-32.
24. Hope VD, Hickman M., Tilling K. Capturing crack cocaine use: Estimating the prevalence of crack cocaine use in London using capture-recapture with covariates. Addiction 2005; 100(11): 1701-08.
25. Judd A., Parry J., Hickman M., McDonald T., Jordan L., Lewis K. et al. Evaluation of a modified commercial assay in detecting antibody to hepatitis C virus in oral fluids and dried blood spots. J Med Virol 2003; 71(1): 49-55.
26. Balogun MA, Ramsay ME, Parry JV, Donovan L., Andrews NJ, Newham JA et al. A national survey of genitourinary medicine clinic attenders provides little evidence of sexual transmission of hepatitis C virus infection. Sexually Transmitted Infections 2003; 79(4): 301-06.
27. Balogun MA, Ramsay ME, Parry JV, Donovan L., Andrews NJ, Newham JA et al. The prevalence and genetic diversity of hepatitis C infection in antenatal clinic attenders in two regions of England. Epidemiology and Infection 2000; 125(3): 705-12.
28. Ades AE, Parker S., Walker J., Cubitt WD, Jones R. HCV prevalence in pregnant women in the UK. Epidemiology and Infection 2000; 125(2): 399-405.
29. Brant LJ, Hurrelle M., Balogun MA, Klapper P., Ahmad F., Boxall E. et al. Sentinel laboratory surveillance of hepatitis C antibody testing in England: Understanding the epidemiology of HCV infection. Epidemiol Infect 2007; 135(3): 417-26.
30. Sweeting MJ, De Angelis D., Ades AE, Hickman M. Estimating the prevalence of ex-injecting drug use in the population. Submitted for publication 2007.
31. Spiegelhalter D., Thomas A., Best N., Lunn D. WinBUGS Version 1.4 User Manual. MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, 2003.
32. Brooks SP, Gelman A. General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 1998; 7: 434-55.
33. Mid-2003 Population Estimates: Quinary age groups and sex for local authorities in England and Wales; estimated resident population based on the 2001 Census. Office for National Statistics, 2003. Available from: URL: www.statistics.gov.uk
34. Cormack RM Problems with using capture-recapture in epidemiology: An example of a measles epidemic. J Clin Epidemiol 1999; 52(10): 909-14.
35. Madigan D., York JC Bayesian methods for estimation of the size of a closed population. Biometrika 1997; 84(1): 19-31.
36. King R., Brooks SP Bayesian model discrimination for multiple strata capture-recapture data. Biometrika 2002; 89(4): 785-806.
37. Meffre C., Delarocque-Astagneau E., Pioche C., Dubois F., Roudot-Thoraval F., Guyader D. et al. Hepatitis C testing, care and treatment: Evolution over ten years in France. Hepatology 2007; 46(4): 625A.
38. Hay G., Gannon M., MacDougall J., Millar T., Eastwood C., McKeganey N. National and regional estimates of the prevalence of opiate use and/or crack cocaine use 2005/06: A summary of key findings. Home Office Research, Development and Statistics Directorate, 2007; Online Report 21/ 07.