Error and optimism bias in toll road traffic forecasts

Transportation

Volumn 36, Issue 5, 2009, Pages 469-482

  Bain, Robert ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Forecasting error; Optimism bias; Toll road; Traffic forecast

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING ERROR; FORECASTING PERFORMANCE; INVESTMENT PROJECTS; OPTIMISM BIAS; PREDICTIVE ACCURACY; PRIVATE SECTORS; THEORY AND PRACTICE; TOLL ROAD; TRAFFIC FORECAST; TRAFFIC FORECASTING; TRAFFIC FORECASTS;

HIGHWAY PLANNING; MOTOR TRANSPORTATION; ROADS AND STREETS; TOLL HIGHWAYS;

FORECASTING;

ACCURACY ASSESSMENT; ERROR ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; ROAD TRANSPORT; TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT;

EID: 67849111543     PISSN: 00494488     EISSN: 15729435     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11116-009-9199-7     Document Type: Article

References (8)

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2. Bain, R., Plantagie J.W.: Traffic Forecasting Risk: Study Update 2004. Standard & Poor's, London (2004)
3. Bain, R., Polakovic, L.: Traffic Forecasting Risk Study 2005: Through Ramp-Up and Beyond. Standard & Poor's, London (2005)
4. Bain, R., Wilkins, M.: The Credit Implications of Traffic Risk in Start-Up Toll Facilities. Standard & Poor's, London (2002)
5. Bain, R.: Conversion to electronic tAll collection: a Puerto Rican case study. In: Traffic Engineering & Control, vol. 41. No. 10, Hemming Group, Dorset (2000)
6. Flyvbjerg, B., Holm, M., Buhl, S.: How (in)accurate are demand forecasts in public works projects? J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 71(2), 131-146 (2005)
7. Morgan, J.P.: Examining toll road feasibility studies. Munic. Financ. J. 18(1), 1-12 (1997)
8. Vassallo, J.M.: Why traffic forecasts in PPP contracts are often overestimated?. EIB University Research Sponsorship Programme, EIB Luxembourg (2007)